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.... The Earth Is Cooling [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2013-5-28 15:51:53 |Display all floors
Part: 1 of 2

Sorry Global Warming Alarmists, The Earth Is Cooling                       



5/31/2012 @ 3:26PM |185,751 views


Climate change itself is already in the process of definitively rebutting climate alarmists who think human use of fossil fuels is causing ultimately catastrophic global warming.  That is because natural climate cycles have already turned from warming to cooling, global temperatures have already been declining for more than 10 years, and global temperatures will continue to decline for another two decades or more.

That is one of the most interesting conclusions to come out of the seventh International Climate Change Conference sponsored by the Heartland Institute, held last week in Chicago.  I attended, and served as one of the speakers, talking about The Economic Implications of High Cost Energy.

The conference featured serious natural science, contrary to the self-interested political science you hear from government financed global warming alarmists seeking to justify widely expanded regulatory and taxation powers for government bodies, or government body wannabees, such as the United Nations.  See for yourself, as the conference speeches are online.

What you will see are calm, dispassionate presentations by serious, pedigreed scientists discussing and explaining reams of data.  In sharp contrast to these climate realists, the climate alarmists have long admitted that they cannot defend their theory that humans are causing catastrophic global warming in public debate.  With the conference presentations online, let’s see if the alarmists really do have any response.

The Heartland Institute has effectively become the international headquarters of the climate realists, an analog to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  It has achieved that status through these international climate conferences, and the publication of its Climate Change Reconsidered volumes, produced in conjunction with the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC).

Those Climate Change Reconsidered volumes are an equivalently thorough scientific rebuttal to the irregular Assessment Reports of the UN’s IPCC.  You can ask any advocate of human caused catastrophic global warming what their response is to Climate Change Reconsidered.  If they have none, they are not qualified to discuss the issue intelligently.

Check out the 20th century temperature record, and you will find that its up and down pattern does not follow the industrial revolution’s upward march of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which is the supposed central culprit for man caused global warming (and has been much, much higher in the past).  It follows instead the up and down pattern of naturally caused climate cycles.

For example, temperatures dropped steadily from the late 1940s to the late 1970s.  The popular press was even talking about a coming ice age.  Ice ages have cyclically occurred roughly every 10,000 years, with a new one actually due around now.

In the late 1970s, the natural cycles turned warm and temperatures rose until the late 1990s, a trend that political and economic interests have tried to milk mercilessly to their advantage.  The incorruptible satellite measured global atmospheric temperatures show less warming during this period than the heavily manipulated land surface temperatures.

Central to these natural cycles is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).  Every 25 to 30 years the oceans undergo a natural cycle where the colder water below churns to replace the warmer water at the surface, and that affects global temperatures by the fractions of a degree we have seen.  The PDO was cold from the late 1940s to the late 1970s, and it was warm from the late 1970s to the late 1990s, similar to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

In 2000, the UN’s IPCC predicted that global temperatures would rise by 1 degree Celsius by 2010.  Was that based on climate science, or political science to scare the public into accepting costly anti-industrial regulations and taxes?

Don Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus of Geology at Western Washington University, knew the answer.  He publicly predicted in 2000 that global temperatures would decline by 2010.  He made that prediction because he knew the PDO had turned cold in 1999, something the political scientists at the UN’s IPCC did not know or did not think significant.




To be continued  ......

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Post time 2013-5-28 16:06:24 |Display all floors
Part: 2 of 2

Sorry Global Warming Alarmists, The Earth Is Cooling

Well, the results are in, and the winner is….Don Easterbrook.  Easterbrook also spoke at the Heartland conference, with a presentation entitled “Are Forecasts of a 20-Year Cooling Trend Credible?”  Watch that online and you will see how scientists are supposed to talk: cool, rational, logical analysis of the data, and full explanation of it.  All I ever see from the global warming alarmists, by contrast, is political public relations, personal attacks, ad hominem arguments, and name calling, combined with admissions that they can’t defend their views in public debate.

Easterbrook shows that by 2010 the 2000 prediction of the IPCC was wrong by well over a degree, and the gap was widening.  That’s a big miss for a forecast just 10 years away, when the same folks expect us to take seriously their predictions for 100 years in the future.  Howard Hayden, Professor of Physics Emeritus at the University of Connecticut showed in his presentation at the conference that based on the historical record a doubling of CO2 could be expected to produce a 2 degree C temperature increase.  Such a doubling would take most of this century, and the temperature impact of increased concentrations of CO2 declines logarithmically.  You can see Hayden’s presentation online as well.

Because PDO cycles last 25 to 30 years, Easterbrook expects the cooling trend to continue for another 2 decades or so.  Easterbrook, in fact, documents 40 such alternating periods of warming and cooling over the past 500 years, with similar data going back 15,000 years.  He further expects the flipping of the ADO to add to the current downward trend.
But that is not all.  We are also currently experiencing a surprisingly long period with very low sunspot activity.  That is associated in the earth’s history with even lower, colder temperatures.  The pattern was seen during a period known as the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830, which saw temperature readings decline by 2 degrees in a 20 year period, and the noted Year Without A Summer in 1816 (which may have had other contributing short term causes).


Even worse was the period known as the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1715, which saw only about 50 sunspots during one 30 year period within the cycle, compared to a typical 40,000 to 50,000 sunspots during such periods in modern times.  The Maunder Minimum coincided with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, which the earth suffered from about 1350 to 1850.  The Maunder Minimum saw sharply reduced agricultural output, and widespread human suffering, disease and premature death.

Such impacts of the sun on the earth’s climate were discussed at the conference by astrophysicist and geoscientist Willie Soon, Nir J. Shaviv, of the Racah Institute of Physics in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and Sebastian Luning, co-author with leading German environmentalist Fritz Vahrenholt of The Cold Sun.

Easterbrook suggests that the outstanding question is only how cold this present cold cycle will get.  Will it be modest like the cooling from the late 1940s to late 1970s?  Or will the paucity of sunspots drive us all the way down to the Dalton Minimum, or even the Maunder Minimum?  He says it is impossible to know now.  But based on experience, he will probably know before the UN and its politicized IPCC.


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Post time 2013-5-28 17:04:41 |Display all floors

RE: .... The Earth Is Cooling

ICCC – 7

[color=#05e6 !important]The Heartland Institute’s Seventh International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-7) took place in Chicago, Illinois from Monday, May 21 to Wednesday, May 23, 2012.

The theme of the 7th International Conference on Climate Change was “Real Science, Real Choices.” Heartland featured approximately 50 scientists and policy experts speaking at plenary sessions and panel discussions exploring what real climate science is telling us about the causes and consequences of climate change, and the real consequences of choices being made based on the current perceptions of the state of climate science.

Major developments on the science front since the [color=#05e6 !important]previous ICCC took place included publication of [color=#05e6 !important]a new report by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change ([color=#05e6 !important]NIPCC) updating its 2009 report, [color=#05e6 !important]Climate Change Reconsidered, and a new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on climate change and extreme weather events.

http://climateconferences.heartland.org/iccc7/




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Post time 2013-5-28 17:12:06 |Display all floors
This post was edited by Revolutionar at 2013-5-28 17:13





Another Morano special.


For rats by rats and of rats.


One rat......and this forum becomes a proxy for Morano web site.






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Post time 2013-5-28 18:29:25 |Display all floors
sansukong Post time: 2013-5-28 17:04
ICCC – 7The Heartland Institute’s Seventh International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-7) took ...






Moranos and Heartless Institute again?


Glaciers disappearing around the world and it is global cooling?


Is this religion? Rat religion?




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Post time 2013-5-28 18:32:53 |Display all floors

Published: Tuesday May 28, 2013 MYT 12:00:00 AM
Updated: Tuesday May 28, 2013 MYT 12:38:02 AM

[backcolor=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]Thinning ice

BY GEOFFREY MOHAN



Climate change is dissolving Mount Everest glaciers.


A WARMING climate is melting the glaciers of Mount Everest, shrinking the frozen cloak of Earth’s highest peak by 13% in the last 50 years, researchers have discovered.

Rocks and natural debris previously covered by snow are now appearing as the snow line has retreated over 170m, according to Sudeep Thakuri, a University of Milan scientist who led the research.

The pessimistic view of Earth’s tallest peak was presented during a recent meeting of the American Geophysical Union in Cancun, Mexico.




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Post time 2013-5-28 18:33:38 |Display all floors
This post was edited by Revolutionar at 2013-5-28 18:34

Researchers said they believe the observed changes could be due to human-generated greenhouse gases altering global climate, .

The team reconstructed the glacial history of the area, using satellite imagery and topographic maps of the Everest and the surrounding 1,840sqkm Sagarmatha National Park. Their statistical analysis shows that the majority of the glaciers in the national park are retreating at an increasing rate, Thakuri said.

Small glaciers of less than a square kilometre are vanishing fastest, registering a 43% decline in surface area since the 1960s. Average temperatures have risen about 0.5°C since 1992, according to data from the Nepal Climate Observatory stations and Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the researchers found. Since 1992, precipitation has declined nearly 10cm during the pre-monsoon and winter months, they revealed.

“The Himalayan glaciers and ice caps are considered a water tower for Asia since they store and supply water downstream during the dry season,” said Thakuri. “Downstream populations are dependent on the melted water for agriculture, drinking and power production.”

The topic of glacial melting in the Himalayas has been controversial. Initial reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted glaciers in the region would disappear by 2035.

Subsequent analysis by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission showed that the melt was one-tenth the reported rate, and that some areas were experiencing growth, particularly in the Tibetan plateau.

Research published last year, however, showed that glaciers have been retreating over a 30-year period on the Tibetan plateau. It also showed that areas that depend on snow during regional monsoon seasons are particularly vulnerable to small rises in temperature. The plateau is of concern because it is the ultimate source of drinking and irrigation water for more than one billion people in Asia. – Los Angeles Times/McClatchy Tribune Information Services


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