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This post was edited by abramicus at 2013-4-14 10:42|
CHINA'S PM COMPARES CREATING TROUBLE IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA WITH PICKING UP A STONE AND DROPPING IT ON ONE'S OWN FOOT
The problem with this analogy is that there are two, or even three, possible interpretations.
The person picking up and dropping the stone on his own foot can be North Korea, America, or even China, herself. Changing the status quo by personal action might apply to the former two, but changing the status quo by not acting could apply to China as well. And don't forget South Korea, Japan and Russia, to whom either the active or passive sense of the analogy could also apply.
And the whole problem gets messier the more ambiguous China's position becomes, because nobody, not even China, knows what it will do if North Korea succeeds or fails in (1) testing another missile, (2) testing another nuclear device, (3) attacking any of the Alliance countries with (a) conventional weapons, (2) missiles, or (3) nuclear weapons.
China is merely predicting that those changing the status quo will get a bad outcome themselves, without including what logically should be included, which is that those who allow the status quo to be changed will also get a lousy end result themselves.
But, is this true?
Not from the point of view of North Korea or the Alliance.
If North Korea succeeds in testing its long range missiles with nuclear capabilities, then its ability to prevent an attack on itself by the Alliance would be enhanced, and its dependence on China would be reduced, giving it more leeway in extracting concessions from South Korea and Japan. If North Korea simultaneously or subsequently invades South Korea and succeeds in reunifying Korea, then China would be under threat of being invaded by a nuclear Korea, which is ten times stronger than non-nuclear Vietnam. Thus, changing the status quo is not necessarily a fool's errand for the North Korean leadership. In fact, it must appear very appealing to them for them to embark on a series of tests and threats.
Likewise, China's doom and gloom projection of any change in the status quo does not appear persuasive to the Alliance, which believes with good reason that with its superior millitary and economic power, it can either crush or change the regime in North Korea, and ultimately reunify Korea under its protege, South Korea.
What is actually true about the analogy is that any change in the status quo in the Korean peninsula is likely to be detrimental to China's national security and economy.
Furthermore, at this stage of the game, preserving the status quo is impossible. Instead, a transition into a new status is INEVITABLE, which REQUIRES China to intervene in such a way that a BINDING PEACE TREATY between the protagonists is signed and ratified, and that the GUARANTEE OF NON-AGGRESSION AND NON-SANCTION that North Korea demands as a minimum requirement for its TOTAL PERMANENT DENUCLEARIZATION must now be put squarely on the table for both sides to consider, on threat that China will side with the party that agrees to the deal, and against the party that rejects the deal.
IT IS TIME THAT CHINA STOP THINKING IN IDEALISTIC DREAMS AND ROMANTIC PROVERBS. CHINA NEEDS TO EXERT PRESSURE ON BOTH SIDES TO SIGN A PEACE TREATY WITH TERMS THAT ARE FAIR AND ACCEPTABLE TO ALL. PLAYING THE ROLE OF AN AMUSED OR AGITATED SPECTATOR, WITH ALL THE WORLD'S ATTENTION RIVETED ON WHAT IT COULD DO, BUT DOES NOT, ULTIMATELY TRIVIALIZES CHINA IN THE EYES OF ALL PARTIES AND ENCOURAGES AN OUTCOME THAT IS SURE TO HURT CHINA, AS THE VICTOR IN THIS CONTEST WOULD OWE CHINA NO FAVOR FOR ITS SUCCESS.
As it is, a veiled threat by China towards North Korea will only propel North Korea toward an all out war to reunify Korea, because given the current state of its vulnerability to military and economic blackmail, it has nothing left to lose.
In fact, with China's wishy washy comments, China has become a disappointment to both the West and to North Korea, and whoever wins in this contest will owe no gratitude to, and will probably hold a grudge against, this useless arbiter whose fear outweighs it strength, and whose goodwill is totally eclipsed by its lack of courage in brokering a just peace in its own backyard.