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CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA OVER THE PAST CENTURY [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2013-1-18 09:48:55 |Display all floors
This post was edited by sansukong at 2013-1-18 08:52

CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA OVER THE PAST CENTURY

Reference
Ren, G., Ding, Y., Zhao, Z., Zheng, J., Wu, T., Tang, G. and Xu, Y. 2012. Recent progress in studies of climate change in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 29: 958-977.



In a paper entitled "Recent progress in studies of climate change in China," which was published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Ren et al. (2012) present an overview of some of the more salient findings of recent years that pertain to this important subject.

Most basic of all their findings, the seven scientists report that China's surface air temperature(SAT) rose by only 0.3 to 1.2°C over the past century. And tempering even this modest finding was the fact, as they put it, that "climate warming was more evident in winter and spring than in other seasons," and that "the warming trend in summer was found the weakest almost everywhere." In fact, they indicate that "in the Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins, the summer mean temperature even dropped slightly." And they state that in the country's annual mean SAT series from 1960 to 2004 - based on the commonly used dataset of national stations - "at least 27% of the warming could be attributed to the urbanization effect," which leaves very little warming to get very excited about, which is probably why they say very little about the likelihood that annual mean SAT in the past few decades "may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period," which is pretty much of an understatement, to say the least.

Next on the Chinese researchers' list of concerns, they state that "in the past 100 years and/or 50 years, no significant trends were detected in annual mean precipitation in the country overall." And in two related matters, they indicate that "the frequency of extreme drought and/or flood events in eastern China in the 20th century did not surpass the highest level in the past 2000 years, but approached the level of 'normal years'." They additionally note that "a decreasing trend was found in frequency of tropical cyclones or typhoons landing on and affecting the southeastern coastal areas," and they report that "the frequency and intensity of dust storms in northern China and thunderstorms over a few areas investigated in eastern China decreased."

It is not surprising, therefore, that "thus far," as Ren et al. write in concluding their report, "global and regional climate models have not performed well in capturing basic changes in precipitation and extreme climate events." And they consequently end their paper with the comment that confidence in the models' projections "is low."


Archived 15 January 2013



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Post time 2013-1-18 10:11:26 |Display all floors
This post was edited by Revolutionar at 2013-1-18 10:12

I tell you what.......



One day, China will have to clear its skies or every Chinese will die a short life.

And when the skies are cleared, the sun will get through and temperature will go up........



...and rats will be buried.
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Post time 2013-1-18 10:49:32 |Display all floors
Climate scientists at NASA have ranked 2012 as the ninth-warmest year since 1880, when annual temperatures were first recorded. Their findings also show that the ten hottest years over this 132-year period have all occurred since 1998, adding to a growing body of evidence that the world's temperature is rising. The report, published by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), comes just a few days after the US government declared 2012 as the hottest year on record within the lower 48 states.

Last year, the world saw an average temperature of 58.3 degrees Fahrenheit, a full degree higher than NASA's mid-20th century baseline average. Since 1880, this average has risen by 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit, with much of this increase coming within the last four decades.


"WHAT MATTERS IS THIS DECADE IS WARMER THAN THE LAST DECADE, AND THAT DECADE WAS WARMER THAN THE DECADE BEFORE."

NASA was unequivocal in explaining this trend, citing increased carbon dioxide emissions as the primary driver behind rising temperatures. And while scientists acknowledge that we may see fluctuations over the coming years, they maintain that overarching trends point to an increasingly hot planet. According to NASA, the last time the Earth saw below average temperatures was back in 1976.

"One more year of numbers isn’t in itself significant," GISS climatologist Gavin Schmidt said in a statement. "What matters is this decade is warmer than the last decade, and that decade was warmer than the decade before. The planet is warming. The reason it’s warming is because we are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."

The severity of these changes is perhaps best contextualized with a computer simulation that NASA released this week (embedded below). According to NASA GISS director James E. Hansen, these trends should be taken with a sense of urgency, given the impact such extreme climate change can have on the environment and human life.

"The climate dice are now loaded," Hansen said. "Some seasons still will be cooler than the long-term average, but the perceptive person should notice that the frequency of unusually warm extremes is increasing. It is the extremes that have the most impact on people and other life on the planet."

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Post time 2013-1-18 11:04:55 |Display all floors
Drain rats spend their own life in the drains collecting rubbish.


Instead of collecting extracts prepared by other rats.......will drain rat go to source to verily before pouring out rubbish?
I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2013-1-18 12:24:04 |Display all floors

RE: CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA OVER THE PAST CENTURY

JAMES HANSEN ADMITS GLOBAL TEMPERATURE STANDSTILL IS REALThe GWPF has been right all along. In a new report Hansen, Sato and Ruedy (2013) acknowledge the existence of a standstill in global temperature lasting a decade.  This is a welcome contribution to the study of global temperature. When others reached the same conclusion they have been ridiculed; so this admission should provide some pause for reflection by those who have attacked the very idea of a recent temperature standstill, often without understanding the data, focusing on who was making the argument and their alleged non-scientific motives. According to Hansen et al. the Nasa Giss database has 2012 as the ninth warmest year on record, although statistically indistinguishable from the last 12 years, at least. Noaa says it’s the tenth warmest year. The difference is irrelevant.
Hansen discusses the possible contributions to global temperature in the past decade from stochastic variability and climate forcings. Personally I don’t think that the variations are demonstrably stochastic.Very early in the report Hansen makes the statement; “Global temperature thus continues at a high level that is sufficient to cause a substantial increase in the frequency of extreme warm anomalies.” To say that such an assertion is debatable is an understatement.La Nina Years  Hansen has an explanation as to why the year was only the ninth warmest. He says that much of 2012 was affected by a strong La Nina that kept temperatures down. In fact less than half of the year was so affected. In addition, the warming El Ninos and the cooling La Ninas of the past decade or so are not responsible for the standstill in global temperatures. Rather they provide quasi-oscillations around a constant mean. Such is the lack of a trend in global temperatures that a moderate El Nino is enough to push an individual year’s mean temperature to be a record, though still statistically indistinguishable from previous years.Hansen says; “Comparing the global temperature at the time of the most recent three La Ninas (1999-2000, 2008, and 2011-2012), it is apparent that global temperature has continued to rise between recent years of comparable tropical temperature, indeed, at a rate of warming similar to that of the previous three decades. We conclude that background global warming is continuing, consistent with the known planetary energy imbalance, even though it is likely that the slowdown in climate forcing growth rate contributed to the recent apparent standstill in global temperature.”I don’t think this is a safe conclusion. Looking at the last three La Nina’s (1999-2000, 2008 and 2011-2012) I think it unwise to use the first one for any comparison. It occurred immediately after the very unusual El Nino of 1998 (said by some to be a once in a century event) and clearly the two subsequent La Nina years must be seen as part of that unusual event. It would be safer not to include 1999-2000 in any La Nina year comparisons. Which leaves us with two, 2008 with a temperature anomaly of 0.49 and 2010-11 which has 0.66 and 0.54. That’s not a great difference, and besides one shouldn’t look for trends with just two datapoints. You cannot conclude anything about background warming from this data.In addition there is no similar effect in El Nino years; 2002-04 is 0.60 – 0.59, 2006-07 is 0.59 – 0.62 and 2009 is 0.59.Hansen says that the continual warming since the mid-70s has been associated with greenhouse gasses. His attribution of the global temperature standstill between about 1940 – 1980 as being due to a balance between aerosol cooling and greenhouse gas warming is not as well established as he portrays it; he also contradicts himself when he adds that there is no satisfactory quantitative interpretation of this period because we just don’t know enough. It is also not the explanation that the IPCC attributes to this period which says it can be explained by solar and volcanic effects.The bottom line is that the recent global temperature standstill is a real event. It is explained in a hand-waving way as due to natural climatic variations masking the long-term trend, even if we do not understand those natural variations. Some believe the standstill might be pointing the way to a deeper revision of our understanding of climate. One thing is clear the stuff you heard until very recently about mankind’s signal of warming being the strongest (and getting stronger) is wrong. The standstill has already taught us that.   Feedback: david.whitehouse@thegwpf.org


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Post time 2013-1-19 21:20:50 |Display all floors
sansukong Post time: 2013-1-18 12:24
JAMES HANSEN ADMITS GLOBAL TEMPERATURE STANDSTILL IS REAL
  • Date: 17/01/13

  • James Hansen.


    Don't let James Hansen see you.

    James Hansen hates Rats even more than I..............................




    Have you no shame, Malayan Jungle Rat?

    I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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    Post time 2013-1-20 23:45:54 |Display all floors
    seneca Post time: 2013-1-20 21:02
    On the other hand, I have read in RESPECTABLE media that the global warming has been stagnant for th ...

    I read that rats will take over the world after each environment disaster....even a nuclear war, rats will survive.

    Homom sapiens got to be very careful of rats.

    Rats are bad news.
    I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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