Author: desperado123

A disaster ahead as warning signs piling up in China?   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-12-17 11:51:43 |Display all floors
expatter Post time: 2011-12-17 02:51
Interesting comment ..........

Real estate meltdown normally happens when credit is high and just ...

the two big issues for us are/were credit availability and government intervention

government intervention included giving (stealing) taxpayer money as a "first home owner's grant" as well as generous tax concessions on investment property (ie other taxpayers pay for your investment)

enough credit was not easy to get even with a good paying job, just 12-13 years ago - then loose credit became available with no deposit loans and low documentation loans, along with zero interest loans, or even part ownership with the bank

this meant even people on a government disability pension could buy a house

these are not purely market forces, where price reflects buying and selling pressures, as both are influenced by government policy (theft) and risk management practices by credit lenders
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Post time 2011-12-17 11:57:06 |Display all floors
and the income to median house price ratio was historically 3.5-4:1, and this is designated "affordable" by Demographia

now it is 9.5-10:1 in sydney

in Shanghai and Beijing, it is something like 15:1



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Post time 2011-12-17 12:06:18 |Display all floors
Hong Kong situation will appear.

SMALLER size apartments to create affordability!
or BUY in a suburban outer areas!

Cheerios!

Green DRagon
Game Grandmaster

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Post time 2011-12-17 13:09:35 |Display all floors
greendragon Post time: 2011-12-17 12:06
Hong Kong situation will appear.

SMALLER size apartments to create affordability!

suppose the mainland would follow HK's step.

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Post time 2011-12-17 14:14:57 |Display all floors
HK has 11.4:1, according to Demographia

page 14

demographia.com/dhi.pdf
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Post time 2011-12-17 15:13:56 |Display all floors
I don't think so

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Post time 2011-12-17 15:27:47 |Display all floors
care to elaborate?
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