Author: antimatter

@Let's face it, the growth of China's advanced region is real-estate driven @@ [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 4

Post time 2010-7-28 21:00:02 |Display all floors
Originally posted by antimatter at 2010-7-28 20:41



do you think average mom and pop's money can access fixed asset?

You know how to search the internet for explanation?
You may have quoted the wrong source of that "real estate 90%"

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2010-7-28 21:45:40 |Display all floors
Originally posted by arab_cha at 2010-7-28 21:00

You know how to search the internet for explanation?
You may have quoted the wrong source of that "real estate 90%"


Don't mislead by those fake stats on the internet.
My number is based on the calculation from the academic institution I associated with.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2010-7-28 21:52:16 |Display all floors
Originally posted by arab_cha at 2010-7-28 20:48
"State Statistics Bureau:in 2009 investment in fixed assets 22484.6 billion yuan, up 30.1% the growth rate accelerated by 4.6 percentage points over the previous year."

"Full-year ...



Also you looking at the country as a whole.

I am talking specifically the developed region of China, the costal region, big fixed assets project already set.  Most of the actions there are 90% real estate.

Right now the government is spending alot of money on big project like rail system, road, plants in inner region and poor regions,  That's where your numbers are coming from.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 4

Post time 2010-7-29 13:32:29 |Display all floors
Originally posted by antimatter at 2010-7-28 21:52



Also you looking at the country as a whole.

I am talking specifically the developed region of China, the costal region, big fixed assets project already set.  Most of the actions th ...

I see. But I have the numbers here.

The fixed asset investment in 2009 total:22484.6 bil RMB
breaking down into 4 regions:
East region 9565.3 bil RMB
Central region 4984.6 bil RMB
West region 4966.2 bil RMB
NE region 2373.3 bil RMB

Real estate development and investment 3623.2 billion yuan (whole country).You can compare the figures.

3623.2 divided by GDP 33535.3 billion yuanx100%= ? % of GDP

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 4

Post time 2010-8-5 21:50:13 |Display all floors
english chat super group:46343144.welcome to join!

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2010-8-6 18:33:36 |Display all floors
Ok, I'm trusting now those numbers up there, although I've had bad experiences with NBS numbers before. But assuming they are right:
(In billion Yuan)
GDP 2009:33535,3
Growthrate:8,7 %
Absolute growth:2684,1

Real Estate growth: 3623.2

Thus, Real Estate was responsible for 135% of the growth - which means, it even compansated some decline.
Facing the Credit growth of more than 10000 Billion Yuan and the fact, that a vast amount of these new credits flow into real estate mortgages, there might be something about it.
Yet it strikes me weird... I wouldn't trust this data too much.

To calculate the real amount of growth real estate brought last year, we'd also have to know how much of the building material was importet and also deduct the land price the developers had to pay (the land existed before) to figure out the real production.

However... Bloomberg was talking about that Real Estate contributed 60% to economic growth in China last year, which seems more reasonable than the 135% resulting from the calculations above.

Anyway, these 60% were only occuring in one single year - it's not a sustaiable trend. In 2003 - 2008, between 60 and 80 Percent of the growth was coming from foreign investments - which is why China could develop so fast and at the same time healthy and sustainably.
The period 2010 - 2015 is gonna be interesting. China is now too big to further rely on foreign investments, but bubble economy is no solution either. So that's why the government is now trying to beef up consumption as a second growth pillar beside foreign investments - let's see whether it works. I'm confident about it ;)

Use magic tools Report

You can't reply post until you log in Log in | register

BACK TO THE TOP
Contact us:Tel: (86)010-84883548, Email: blog@chinadaily.com.cn
Blog announcement:| We reserve the right, and you authorize us, to use content, including words, photos and videos, which you provide to our blog
platform, for non-profit purposes on China Daily media, comprising newspaper, website, iPad and other social media accounts.