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Ok, I'm trusting now those numbers up there, although I've had bad experiences with NBS numbers before. But assuming they are right:|
(In billion Yuan)
Real Estate growth: 3623.2
Thus, Real Estate was responsible for 135% of the growth - which means, it even compansated some decline.
Facing the Credit growth of more than 10000 Billion Yuan and the fact, that a vast amount of these new credits flow into real estate mortgages, there might be something about it.
Yet it strikes me weird... I wouldn't trust this data too much.
To calculate the real amount of growth real estate brought last year, we'd also have to know how much of the building material was importet and also deduct the land price the developers had to pay (the land existed before) to figure out the real production.
However... Bloomberg was talking about that Real Estate contributed 60% to economic growth in China last year, which seems more reasonable than the 135% resulting from the calculations above.
Anyway, these 60% were only occuring in one single year - it's not a sustaiable trend. In 2003 - 2008, between 60 and 80 Percent of the growth was coming from foreign investments - which is why China could develop so fast and at the same time healthy and sustainably.
The period 2010 - 2015 is gonna be interesting. China is now too big to further rely on foreign investments, but bubble economy is no solution either. So that's why the government is now trying to beef up consumption as a second growth pillar beside foreign investments - let's see whether it works. I'm confident about it ;)