Author: Alex2010

Ken Rogoff: "China Property Market Collapse Starting" [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2010-7-13 12:54:28 |Display all floors

Reply #28 St_George's post

It's only for a few PRICEY LOCATIONS.

Just visited Shanghai's Pudong, and visited the local real estate agent shop!
Not so bad!

But it takes quite a large of "down payment" to be able to afford an apartment in Beijing or Shanghai for a average income white collar working couple! Anyway LARGE HOMES are not that suitable in a place where you have to install heating!

hmmmmm

Green DRagon
Game Master

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Post time 2010-7-13 17:22:43 |Display all floors
Paradoxically that makes YOU much bigger  Capitalists than us !


I don't get this one - I always measured capitalism according to the grade of derregulation in an economy... What does it have to do with the income/real estate price ratio?

However, I also know a lot of Chinese who can't afford an own appartment in China and suffer from that. What I wonder is, might the reason for those problems not lay deeper than in the prices? I mean, enough appartments are built, but obviously, investors buy them all. Id' see the real reason in China's growing diffrence between rich and poor, thus I doubt whether merely decreasing house prices by holding back credits helps...

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Post time 2010-7-13 17:28:57 |Display all floors
Originally posted by St_George at 2010-7-12 14:55
Paradoxically that makes YOU much bigger  Capitalists than us !



George, it's not called capitalism here.....it's "Socialism with Chinese characteristics".....a totally different thing^^
Patria est ubicunque bene/Obsequium amicos, veritas odium parit

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Post time 2010-7-13 17:39:56 |Display all floors

let's be clear

capitalism should be associated with a free market

this, in turn, means certain assumptions about money itself

a "free market" should be associated with "free money", in the sense that the definition of money itself is not interfered with

but presently money is not free of outside influence. In the USA it is owned by a cabal of banks, in particular, European banks

Again, a core technique of these people is to use words to disguise intent

In America, the bank which creates "money" as it is, is called the Federal Reserve Bank. This makes it sound, by association, like a government enterprise, by using the term "Federal". But it is not.

It is privately owned, and immune to audit. The public, who work, and therefore are the true owners of money, do not have property ownership over their work. Money is work.

The Federal Reserve Bank owns the right to issue money. This "front company" is owned by other banks. The public is denied the right to know the names of these banks and the names of the key people who control it all.

Money, as it is, is a form of enslavement. We cannot save it, because its worth is always being eroded. This is fundamentally wrong.

As for real-estate, it is currently the tool by which banks create the most debt for individuals, so-called private debt.

Real-estate produces nothing.

It will end in tears.

[ Last edited by lebeast at 2010-7-13 07:11 PM ]
(beast ex machina)

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Post time 2010-7-13 17:57:58 |Display all floors
Money can actually be saved if the central bank does a good job and stops inflation. And here, I believe, you have a misconception: the problem is not that the FED doesn't listen enough to the government - the problem is that they listen too much. So if elections are coming up, the US-president usually encourages the central bank to losen it's monetary policy to creat virtual economic growth - virtual because it leads to inflation and doesn't help anyone. If the FED doesn't cooperate, it's director will be just replaced by a more convenient person.
That's the main reason why it is hard for ordinary americans to save money.

Another reason is the fact that some countries, including the USA, have a huge trade deficit. This gives the national currency a negative tendency, so it will steadily lose value towards other currencies. That's why I'd get loans in US-Dollars or british pounds and save money in currencies like the swiss frank or the japanese yen (or, of course, gold). With this strategy you don't get rich - but you play save over the long haul.

A guy I know, a fund manager, does it that way: he invests 90 percent of all assets in very save things like bonds or currencies or, at most, blue chip shares and get's beta exposure by investing the other 10 percent in derivatives for riskier assets. As you can imagine, he didn't lose much at all during the crisis and can still earn decent profits now during the recovery (although, of course, not as high profits as competitors that take higher risks).

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Post time 2010-7-13 18:11:50 |Display all floors

I like your technique

It is good logic to consider the opposite

the problem is not that the FED doesn't listen enough to the government - the problem is that they listen too much.


However, the basic problem is that the Fed is privately owned and refuses to be audited. That is all we need to know.

Replacing the director is precisely the same device used in a democracy, by these same people. Kevin Rudd was removed, but the infection remains. It just has another face.

Americans would save if money was not continuously stolen from them by the combination of inflation and tax on interest earned on that money. To my mind, the way the owners of money think is this:

We will bamboozle people with arithmetic hoops and hurdles, such that they do not see that they are being robbed of the fruits of their work

Money is work

Literacy is one thing. Numeracy is another. And there are only so many things we can hold "online" in our 'working memory'.

Now, imagine you are a clever fellow who knows all of this. Why not devise a system which takes some of that wealth away from everyone, by masking intent with words, and masking intent with numerical equations?

The intent is the same

The work is ours, but the intent is to rob us

Another weapon used by these same people is the media, by giving us examples of people to worship who exploit the scam.
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Post time 2010-7-13 18:53:33 |Display all floors
the basic problem is that the Fed is privately owned and refuses to be audited.


If it actually was privately owned, it wouldn't have an interest to destroy its very own assets as it did during the past 10 years. But it's not  - it's owned by the public. What you probably mean is the fact that powerful lobbies influence American politicians (as well as the president), who in turn encourages the FED to behave in the interest of the lobbiists.

Eitherway, the problem could be solved if the FED representatives would be elected by the states and in turn as a monetary parliament elect the FED leader, as they know much more about economics than the average president. Anyway, such a system doesn't exists anywhere in the world (ok, partly in the EU - but they face totally diffrent troubles with their over controlled and under regulated Euro). The point is just that the FED must be totally independent from the government and fulfill it's task of providing enough but not too much money without caring about political issues.


Now, imagine you are a clever fellow who knows all of this. Why not devise a system which takes some of that wealth away from everyone, by masking intent with words, and masking intent with numerical equations?  The intent is the same  The work is ours, but the intent is to rob us  Another weapon used by these same people is the media, by giving us examples of people to worship who exploit the scam.


To me, this sounds quite like the Rothschild conspiracy... sorry mate but I don't believe in things like one powerful entity is trying to control the world. There are lots of individuals that influence the system and everyone wants to get his share of the pie.
So instead of complaining, it's better to join them and get your own share. So if you want to invest in America, do it over credits (interest rates are super low) and if not, save your money in a currency that won't deappreciate over the long haul. Or hedge.

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