Author: Alex2010

Ken Rogoff: "China Property Market Collapse Starting" [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 5Rank: 5

Post time 2010-7-6 23:35:55 |Display all floors
Originally posted by expatter at 2010-7-6 23:30
...........................................................


Well, I am in the same position as our Chinese friends .............................

Money ready and sat on the fence until Augus ...



We wait for the bubble to burst too. Where you wanna buy?Beijing?
Patria est ubicunque bene/Obsequium amicos, veritas odium parit

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Medal Medal of honor Gold Medal July's Best Writer 2012 October's Best Writer 2012

Post time 2010-7-6 23:39:32 |Display all floors

Yep, ..................................

Beijing ..............................

So many properties have come on the market in the last few weeks .............

Agent phoned up today and one we looked at at 3.6 mil was offered for 3.0 .........


Not yet, not yet, August ....................  

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2010-7-6 23:55:17 |Display all floors
Originally posted by Alex2010 at 2010-7-6 21:14


Tyler Durden


??
您买象牙 - 您杀了大象!
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjU1Nzg0NDky.html - “用现代文明标准比划中国人,是严重的种族歧视行为。”
„Ich ficke wo, wen, und wann ich will, hast du mich verstanden. Auch du könntest ficken, aber du kannst es ja gar nicht, deine deutsche Genauigkeit... verbietet es dir“. Jean-Claude Juncker

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2010-7-7 06:09:32 |Display all floors
A one bath apartment in Beijing cost 2 million US dollar


Assuming that means 100 sqm, that'd mean it'd cost 20k USD / sqm or 1,4 万元 per sqm。。。 I guess that's an exception - normal apartments are far cheaper. But still far too expensive. At this price, I'd never buy a Chinese appartment, I'd rather rent them and invest the money elsewhere.

I hope the real estate bubble bursts sustainably and prices drop by like 80% until 2012. It'd be painful for Chinese economy, but afterwards it'd be healthy and can grow even faster and in a more sophisticated pattern. If it doesn't happen now, it will happen someday later - or a huge amount of capital will be bound and gradually stop Chinese economy, then we'd have the same situation like in Japan before.
However, if real estate prices now drop too fast, all the investors will get into a  out frenzy, there'd be trillions of liquid assets in Chinese markets and inflation will be stealing the food from common people's bowl. In addition, there'd be other bubbles...
So the situation is very hard right now.

Anyway, I agree with Rogoff and obviously, Chinese government does so too (look at their actions). That's also why I don't think China is threatent by bankruptcy. Yet it's threatend by overheating. And that's why I'd adives the government to open Chinese borders more for capital, so that Chinese people can easier invest into foreign assets.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 4

Post time 2010-7-7 11:45:46 |Display all floors
decline but not collapse.the buble of Property Market will never blast in short time,cause loaning to buy a house only take a small part of the whole Property Market,less than 10%.so the decline is temporary,unstable and fluctuant.rebound may start in next year,but Gov can not suffer that his policies are useless,so some part of China's house price will fall in the end but do not have a big hope about the span.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2010-7-7 11:49:15 |Display all floors
Just to explain my avatar, Africans are out of FIFA, the Dutch are still in.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Gold Medal

Post time 2010-7-7 11:55:48 |Display all floors

China Property Set for `Healthy' Correction, Not Collapse, Jones Lang Says

An entirely different opinion from Jones Lang from today:


China’s home prices are set to fall as much as 20 percent in a “healthy” correction, said Michael Klibaner, head of China research at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.

China’s property boom is “cash-driven” rather than “leverage-fuelled,” which means there’s only a low chance of the type of forced s el ling that exacerbated the U.S. housing market collapse, he said in a B .lo.o.m..berg Television interview today. That view contrasts with Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff’s prediction yesterday of a “col.l.apse” in China’s property market that will hit the nation’s banking system.

Property prices in 70 Chinese cities rose 12.4 percent in May, the second-fastest pace on record, heightening concern a bubble is forming in the nation’s housing market. Shanghai’s new-home sales fell 70 percent from a year ago in June, Changjiang Securities Co. said in a report yesterday, adding to signs government measures including increased interest rates and down payments on second mortgages are cooling the market.

“We actually expect a very healthy correction, something in the order of 15 or 20 percent in terms of price correction,” Klibaner said today. “But we don’t see any reason why there will be a risk of a crash at the moment.”

Jones Lang LaSalle is the second-largest publicly traded commercial property broker.

As China’s economy develops, “especially at the speed it’s growing, it’s going to have bumps,” said Rogoff, speaking in an interview with B.lo..o.m..berg Television in Hong Kong yesterday.

Property Crackdown

“You’re starting to see that co.l.lapse in property and it’s going to hit the banking system,” said Rogoff, 57, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

Klibaner’s forecast echoes the view of Nomura Holdings Inc. economists Sun Mingchun and Sun Chi, who said China’s average home price may fall as much as 20 percent in the next 12 to 18 months. That won’t have a big impact on China’s economy, they said in a July 5 report.

Chinese authorities intensified a c.r.a..ckdown on property speculation after announcing the economy expanded at an 11.9 percent annual pace in the first quarter, the most since 2007. Measures have included raising minimum mortgage rates and down payment ratios for some home purchases. Officials may also start a trial property tax, according to state media.

The efforts have contributed to a slump in real-estate sales and sent an index tracking 34 Shanghai-listed developers down almost 30 percent in 2010, even as prices keep rising.

Sales Slump

Shanghai’s sales of new homes fell 57 percent in the first six months of the year on government measures to cool the property market, Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co. said today.

A total of 3.57 million square meters (38.4 million square feet) was sold in Shanghai’s primary market for the period, compared with 8.24 million square meters a year earlier, Uwin said. The first-half sales were the lowest in five years.

New home prices in the first half rose 48 percent from a year earlier to 21,008 yuan ($3,100) per square meter, according to the Uwin report.

“Shanghai property prices are likely to head downward further in the coming months as sales continue to decline and the government showed firm determination to curb the prices rises,” said Lu Qilin, a Shanghai-based researcher at Uwin, adding expect prices to fall 10-15 percent in the second half.

Use magic tools Report

You can't reply post until you log in Log in | register

BACK TO THE TOP
Contact us:Tel: (86)010-84883548, Email: blog@chinadaily.com.cn
Blog announcement:| We reserve the right, and you authorize us, to use content, including words, photos and videos, which you provide to our blog
platform, for non-profit purposes on China Daily media, comprising newspaper, website, iPad and other social media accounts.