Author: mychina

China will have 5 times the GDP of America by 2020 [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2010-6-17 17:10:07 |Display all floors
Originally posted by in_ningbo at 2010-6-17 03:54
As much as I like your optimism, your figures are a complete nonsense. Just a quick thought: how cheap are Chinese goods if the exchange rate RMB-USD is 3:1 ? Exactly. ;)


China should start exporting more expensive,  high-quality goods,   and move up the value chain so that Chinese workers can be paid much higher wages.

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Post time 2010-6-17 17:11:57 |Display all floors
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"My way or Guantanamo Bay"

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Post time 2010-6-21 01:26:41 |Display all floors
It's funny to see over here on this thread, the poster say China's GDP would be 5 times bigger than the USA BY 2020.

On the other thread, he was questioning whether China's GDP would equal the USA after 2015
Malaysian-born Chinese

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Post time 2010-6-21 12:29:31 |Display all floors

Reply #10 taikor's post

It's pretty unlikely for China GDP to grow fast once it reach US$8,000 per capita. (The traditional exports of China - hypermarket goods, OEM goods, labour intensive components exports will all be affected). Would expect VIETNAM, MYANMAR, LUZON to be site of much of assembling work, as China's site advantage diminish for such work!

The higher value engineering exports that GERMANY, JAPAN, KOREA excel depends on available market access, primarily to USA, British Club states, and EU state secondary markets! SO, SUCH MARKET ARE INDEED CROWDED, as EU states such as France, Italy are also producing the same category of products. (Probably export of low end cars and engineering products that is balanced by import of high end cars, technological and capital goods from the same range of states)

Big commodity exports are dominated by British Club and American companies, and are in control or have big influence on  production assets in their own territories, or supply technology-market access in Africa, Latin America, South East Asia, Arab states.

PRETTY likely China would EQUAL the American Regime economy, but would have great difficulty to gain more UNLESS China could INVENT new technologies!

ha ha ha


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Post time 2010-6-21 12:33:40 |Display all floors

Reply #4 whereabout's post

If CHINA can create a FINANCIAL SOPHISTICATION, combined with a CAPITAL INFLOW via EXTERNAL INVESTMENT, it could in theory be able to finance a TRADE DEFISIT with the rest of the world, somewhat similar to the American Regime, and the British Core Club states!

But as the EU discovers, it can be quite a difficult task, with limited value.

It could however bring the China per capita GDP above US$10,000!

ha ha ha


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Post time 2010-6-21 12:42:13 |Display all floors

Reply #11 greendragon's post

You are suggesting an enzo, quatttroporte or veyron to be lower end than an astra or lupo?
您买象牙 - 您杀了大象!
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Post time 2010-6-21 12:47:29 |Display all floors

Reply #13 LCSULLA's post

That's difficult to expect!

Wa ha ha ha

Only market that is FREE to import low end cars is USA, British Club!
and probably cheap high end too!


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