Author: wetac0s

North and South Korean unification [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2010-4-16 01:11:54 |Display all floors
Originally posted by wetac0s at 2010-4-15 12:54
Who says S. Korea would adopt N. Korea's form of government?  If they unified, they would most likely adopt S. Korea's government.  

Sorry Madam, but this view is by far too optimistic.

The North Korean point of view is, the US have "stolen" half of "their" land. This is why they are ready to fight and scrifice everything to get their land "back". This is why they would never ever accept another leadership than their own.
If a re-unified Korea under Kim Jong Il would be as despotic as now, we don't know. But in any case, the North will not accept anything but the leadership of the communist party and their "beloved leader".



Originally posted by titer1 at 2010-4-15 13:06
:)
I think the progress of unification is so simple ,in another way,we can say actually the possiblity of unification is becoming larger if the US withdraw its troops

yes... if the US withdraws its troops, then the North will most likely attack the South and Korea will be unified - under the parameters I stated above.

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Post time 2010-4-16 01:21:21 |Display all floors

Hm... I would not give the ROK troops the short shift...

Originally posted by bern2009 at 4/15/2010 12:11 PM
yes... if the US withdraws its troops, then the North will most likely attack the South and Korea will be unified - under the parameters I stated above.


... because P.R. China and Russia would not be coming to the manpower/material aid of DPRK, unlike 60 years ago - lest they would think they could deal with failout from Europe and the Asian Rim.  That will be double if Lil' Kim decided to start his war with a nuke strike.

No, for all the bluster and pomp - it would most like be a Gulf War I situation - a lot of hype followed by a brief series of conventional fire fights, followed by a slew of mass surrenders.

At that point - if the ROK decides to keep the area "nuke weapon free" - Hu and Putin would most like welcome a "quiet pennisula".
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Post time 2010-4-16 05:41:18 |Display all floors
No one wants reunification except possibly the DPRK (I'm only saying that because I have no clue what they're thinking).

South Korea: The businessmen and politicians don't want to deal with the headache of being introduced to millions of poor North Koreans. Also, a lot of the businessmen like abusing the current systems in places like Kaesong.

United States: Any Korean unification would likely have to come with the US losing influence there (no way would the North agree to unification while allowing US presence in the peninsula).

P.R.China: Don't want to deal with potential North Korean exodus, instability.

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Post time 2010-4-16 06:02:39 |Display all floors
Korea can't be reunited until N.K. lift it's shroud, and start operate as a proper country. It's not the world that keep N.K. in the dark, it's Kim Yong Il and his gang. What have he ever done for the people there? What would he accomplish by annexing the south? Squeeze as much money out of them as he can before he dies and then let his son have them?!? And then they'll keep them in the darkness until further notice aswell?!?

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Post time 2010-4-16 23:05:20 |Display all floors

That depends on what type of exodus...

Originally posted by FiatLux at 4/15/2010 04:41 PM
P.R.China: Don't want to deal with potential North Korean exodus, instability.


... a few hundred of Lil' Kim's family and supporters... or thousands of DPRK troops looking to avoid getting their heads handed to them by ROK forces.

Most likely - it would be a negotiated exile for Lil' Kim - and a very tightly closed border between Korea/China/Russia until new accords could be signed.
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Post time 2010-4-17 10:02:54 |Display all floors

Reply #31 tradervic's post

Kim Jong Il has been very ill lately and people are saying that he will die very soon.  I've also read reports about him being very tired and ready to cooperate with south korea.

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Post time 2010-4-17 10:22:56 |Display all floors

Lil' Kim has been ill for the last couple of years...

Originally posted by wetac0s at 4/16/2010 09:02 PM
Kim Jong Il has been very ill lately and people are saying that he will die very soon.  I've also read reports about him being very tired and ready to cooperate with south korea.


... and the only thing that has been seen is the grooming of his kid for the his job.  Whether the DPRK army or the DPRKCP follows him after his father's death remains to be seen.

Given what has happened the last couple of weeks with the sinking of the Cheonan - it has been interesting to note the rather mute response from DPRK.
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