Author: notknowwhy

Mid-year rebound forecast! [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2009-4-9 23:15:39 |Display all floors

The optimist invents the airplane and the pessimist the parachute

Originally posted by satsu_jin at 2009-4-9 23:32


You're a pessimist by nature, aren't you?

A pessimist is never disappointed


This optimism will bounce off the rocks all the way to the sea at the bottom of the cliff.

Any timeline for this scenario?

My  ...


I see a bright future at the end of this, for China.

All crises end.

I hope I am not being too miserable, but I like to understand what we are facing and to look for the opportunities it presents.

:)

War in relation to this crisis? I haven't given it enough thought yet, to provide an adequate answer to your question.

A few thoughts...

Pessimist first:

Oil production is about to hit peak and then decline. Prices are likely to rise dramatically. There may be only a year or two before prices double and then treble. Within the next 5  years, it should be obvious to most people, unless an alternative is discovered.

Energy production in general is peaking.
An interesting link I liked on this:
http://321energy.      com/editorials/deruijter/       deruijter021109.html

Energy is required for food production and transport.

When people are hungry, they get upset.

Governments will therefore try and ensure their supplies of energy.


Optimist goes next, and has the last laugh

Happiness is free

This world is temporary.

So are problems


"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.?




:)

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Post time 2009-4-10 09:28:55 |Display all floors
A pessimist is never disappointed

An optimist looks beyond disappointment.

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Post time 2009-4-10 14:36:20 |Display all floors
On one point of interest Japan has seen bank lending increase even as their economy deteriorates. The reason given is that businesses are trying to shore up cash. It does make sense. It's possible the lending only indicates that more companies need loans rather than some big surge in economic activity, certainly the data is inconsistent.

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