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Mid-year rebound forecast! [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2009-4-8 13:41:22 |Display all floors
The government's $586-billion stimulus package may be strong enough to drive the economy to an early rebound in the middle of this year, the World Bank said Tuesday, adding a caveat that a full recovery ultimately depends on developments in the advanced economies.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-04/08/content_7656766.htm

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Post time 2009-4-8 14:02:17 |Display all floors

Reply #1 notknowwhy's post

The SIGNs seemed to be there indicating a REBOUND during MAY, 2009.


Let's look for the good figures cropping up!
Seems like USA is a little bit "left behind" this time round!


ha ha ha


Green DRagon
Game Master

note: The political events in Malaya-Borneo-Singapore now at STATUS QUO, just like what it should be! People! We have a world crisis now, and we have to recover before we negotiate with each other for goodies and benefits!!!!

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Post time 2009-4-8 23:07:50 |Display all floors
the economic is still in downturn,as a foreign trader operator,we suffer heavy batter,the sales volume of our online shop www.swimshop-china.com dive hugely,tumble since its birth,hope the economy will pick up soon,all people will happy then.god bless us.

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Post time 2009-4-9 13:19:55 |Display all floors

Reply #3 anelca31's post

Do you have details?

Oct - Dec '08, Jan-Mar '09 figures?

online orders could be more expensive due to "courier charges", could consumers have moved to buying it from discount stores, hypermarket. (swimwear has lifespan limited by resistance of the spandex to swimming pool. Those used to swimming as a regular habit would have to continuously buy)

it appears to be slower, but in improving trend.


Green DRagon
GAme Master

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Post time 2009-4-9 15:23:39 |Display all floors
These signs of recovery are misleading. Ultimately the surge in lending and other areas is fueled by irrational expectations about domestic and global growth. It seems the government has thrown caution to the wind and is allowing the economy to dangerously overbuild.

I think when few signs appear of a real recovery the indicators being cited now will drop even more than before. I think year-over-year figures should still show some signs of a contraction soon though.

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Post time 2009-4-9 21:39:33 |Display all floors

I agree with you

Originally posted by kodama at 2009-4-9 16:53
These signs of recovery are misleading. Ultimately the surge in lending and other areas is fueled by irrational expectations about domestic and global growth. It seems the government has thrown cau ...


Deleveraging must occur

Some ideas on where to from here:

Job losses accelerate
World trade falls off a cliff
The mortgage market in commercial real estate collapses, individual credit collapses
The US bond market collapses
The USD is devalued
Renewed currency crisis
Deflation wipes out commodities
Then inflation, perhaps hyperinflation wipes out savings

Over this series of events, there are a number of bear market rallies, sufficient enough to draw in some, with renewed optimism.

This optimism will bounce off the rocks all the way to the sea at the bottom of the cliff.

My hope is that at some stage it will be ludicrously obvious to even government that the problem is too big and nature must take its course.

China will fair better than others in the end, if order can be maintained in the crisis.

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Post time 2009-4-9 22:02:50 |Display all floors
Originally posted by lebeast at 2009-4-9 22:39




You're a pessimist by nature, aren't you?




This optimism will bounce off the rocks all the way to the sea at the bottom of the cliff.

Any timeline for this scenario?

My hope is that at some stage it will be ludicrously obvious to even government that the problem is too big and nature must take its course.

Nature = war? Any other interpretation?

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