Author: kodama

China heading for recession? [Copy link] 中文

Post time 2008-11-24 19:50:18 |Display all floors
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Post time 2008-11-24 20:00:07 |Display all floors
ZG,

Oh, there's a very good argument that GDP over or under counts economic growth. Plenty of criticisms, including the fact that it doesn't have a way of directly accounting unpriced goods like national parks or good surf.
"Justice prevails... evil justice."

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Post time 2008-11-24 23:18:33 |Display all floors
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Post time 2008-11-25 14:49:21 |Display all floors
Originally posted by markwu at 2008-11-24 06:37
recession? hardly


You shouldn't be taking projections as fact. At issue is what they are basing their estimates on. Many GDP projections here in the U.S. were badly off because most people making these projections weren't counting in something like the failure of Lehman Brothers or the general credit crisis reaching this level.

By the same token I doubt many are actually projecting any major systemic problems in China. To some extent figures for China are based on an absurd belief that there will be a turnaround in 2009 for the world economy. The exact impact of current situations in the Chinese economy are not being factored in sufficiently, that is accounting for all the risk. There haven't been any major bank failures or large bankruptcies at this point but there's no reason to think there won't be.  The extent of the problems among smaller companies is also unpredictable.

However, I don't know of any major indicators for China that are up to the extent other indicators are down. Hong Kong is in a recession and Taiwan has probably entered a recession. I would consider both to be ill omens for mainland China's economic situation considering exports are a large part of both economies.

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Post time 2008-11-25 16:31:40 |Display all floors
No worries on this recession. China got to move on despite of economic slowdown.

After several rounds of scaring price rises earlier this year, I'm very glad to see prices finally go down. Although many of my workmates worry about job security here in Beijing, I'm quite relieved about this. I guess 95 percent of employees here have no problems in holding their positions all through the downturn which most experts predict will last no more than 18 months. Plus, both central and local governments in China are flexing muscles for a gigantic spending plan.

When the bad times arrive, China's rigid system protects the country as it hampers her development in good times.
http://www.pampers.com.cn/bsod/seebaby.asp?ID=sh00017

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Post time 2008-11-26 14:17:39 |Display all floors

be calm

No matter worse or better, or keep current situation, I have prepared for all the possible changes.
I hope the economy would keep developing steady .Assumed negatively, I still believe the national leader have the ability to take  people out of the hot water. All I should to do is support the goverment.
Let's be united and helpful, facing the possible troucle confidently.
God bless Chinese!

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Post time 2008-11-26 15:14:13 |Display all floors
An interesting report:

It is happening faster than most anyone predicted: China’s economy, long the world’s fastest-growing major economy, is slowing down. Economists are forecasting that after growing nearly 12 percent last year, China’s economy could slow to 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter of this year — a stunning retreat for a country accustomed to boom times.


Source: The New York Times

According to this we're talking 5.5% in the current quarter and I have a hard time believing there is much positive momentum in the following two.

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