Author: laoxianggg

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Post time 2008-5-14 14:07:19 |Display all floors
Originally posted by copchen at 2008-5-14 13:39
1975年2月4日海城7.3级地震时,我国做出了成功的预报,这是人类历史上的第一次成功的地震预报。在其后又成功地预报了1976年5月29日云南龙陵7.3级地震和1976年8月16日、8月29日在四川松潘、平武之间发生的两次7.2级 ...


难道你从来都不怀疑这些报道的准确性的吗??

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Post time 2008-5-14 14:16:39 |Display all floors
Originally posted by cindy1234 at 2008-5-14 10:30
专家说,地震预报是一个全球性的难题;到目前为止,还没有哪个国家、哪个科学家有办法能把地震准确地预报出来。在此之前,我国也曾有极少数成功预报的先例,然而,由于各地的地震地质环境差别巨大,历史地震记载不全,地震观测站点密度偏少以及地震预测理论水平等原因,对地震做出准确预报现在还做不到。


请问“专家”:
1、外国人做不到,就说明中国人一定也做不到吗?如果不做前人没有做过的事,还要你们干什么?
2、“在此之前,我国也曾有极少数成功预报的先例”,不是简单的“之前”,而是三十多年前。如果你们保持了三十多年前的水平,也算可以了。可现在呢?在预报方面你们取得了哪些进展?难道,三十多年前的预报是蒙的吗?
3、“对地震做出准确预报现在还做不到”,那么,不准确的预报你们做到了吗?现在天气预报也不是完全准确的,但也在按概率预报。哪怕你们只提出“有多少百分比的可能性”发生地震,也算你们进步了。可你们做到了吗?

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Post time 2008-5-14 14:18:19 |Display all floors
Originally posted by hwgr01 at 2008-5-14 14:07


难道你从来都不怀疑这些报道的准确性的吗??


你怀疑海城地震预报是否真有其事?请查一下资料。那次成功的预报,拯救了千万人的生命。

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Post time 2008-5-14 15:13:04 |Display all floors
Well, the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake is absolutely accepted, copchen, along with some other predictions.

The problem appears to be one not of false hits (lots of precursors → earthquake prediction but no earthquake occurs) but one of false misses (no or few precursors → no prediction but an earthquake occurs). It could be that in a very small class of earthquakes. precursors such as those occurring in the Haicheng earthquake have a good probability of predicting a quake but in many more earthquakes, no precursors (or a different, not-yet-known-or-generally-accepted precursors) occur.

Improving aging infrastructure is. at the moment, a better way of saving lives. But that's always costly and tend be put off.
中文我不会读也不会写。Really, I don't.

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Post time 2008-5-14 16:00:48 |Display all floors
If winter comes, can spring be frozen ahead?

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Post time 2008-5-14 16:02:41 |Display all floors

what's this?

1210657739_65800900.jpg
If winter comes, can spring be frozen ahead?

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Post time 2008-5-14 16:03:21 |Display all floors

What's this?

1210657736_60243700.jpg
If winter comes, can spring be frozen ahead?

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