Author: laoxianggg

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Post time 2008-5-14 12:33:19 |Display all floors
Originally posted by jl2315 at 2008-5-13 07:52 PM

科技还没有发展到能够预测地震的地步。有些人以为存在这样的能力,是对一些事后孔明的夸张报道吹得过分而造成的误解而已。
Exactly. We all wish there might have been a way to predict an event such as this one but right now no reliable way exists.

From Popular Mechanics, 13 May 2008
"Earthquake prediction is one of the holy grails of science," [Kaye] Shedlock [who worked with China when she headed the USGS's hazard and risk program] says. "The Chinese worked much harder at this than us, and appeared to have early successes. Then another earthquake happened that didn't behave like the previous one." In the course of evaluating and authorizing earthquake research, the USGS has spent decades following attempts to predict quakes. "The research being done spans the spectrum—from serious, scholarly, scientific research, to pure speculation," says Blanpied. For example, when geologists have created small earthquakes in the lab, they've noticed an acceleration of the sliding along the fault, just before the quake hits. But every attempt to detect this acceleration has failed to produce solid predictive data. Despite a long-running experiment in Parkfield, Calif., which included highly sensitive instrumentation, the only evidence of the magnitude 6 earthquake that finally hit in 2004 was the earthquake itself.
中文我不会读也不会写。Really, I don't.

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Post time 2008-5-14 12:51:18 |Display all floors
Originally posted by jl2315 at 2008-5-14 11:58


可惜,人类目前还没有这个能力。


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那个“埋”了二十多个班的学校当时有一个班在上体育课,听说他们幸免于难。

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Post time 2008-5-14 13:35:09 |Display all floors
为什么三十多年前的海城地震都成功预报了?唐山地震前,也有很多人提出有地震的可能,地震发生时,地震局的人就在那边开会,研究地震的可能性。他们当时至少知道那地方有可能地震。
三十多年过去了,计算机等技术发展如此之快,难道这方面的技术一点没有进展?甚至还不如三十多年以前?这难道是“科技还没有发展到能够预测地震的地步”这样的话能解释的了的吗?科技是靠人去研究、去探索的,而不是它自己就能发展的。如果人们把经费和精力都投到如何评职称、如何搞学术腐败上去了,科技能发展吗?
至少,负责地震研究的有关当局和科技部应该感到羞愧!

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Post time 2008-5-14 13:39:44 |Display all floors

相关资料(网上摘录)

1975年2月4日海城7.3级地震时,我国做出了成功的预报,这是人类历史上的第一次成功的地震预报。在其后又成功地预报了1976年5月29日云南龙陵7.3级地震和1976年8月16日、8月29日在四川松潘、平武之间发生的两次7.2级地震。最近十几年又有几次较好的地震预报。成功的地震预报不但极大地减轻人员伤亡,而且具有明显的经济效益和社会效益。这些震例说明地震是有前兆的,是可以预测、可以预防的。

[ Last edited by copchen at 2008-5-14 01:42 PM ]

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Medal of honor

Post time 2008-5-14 13:41:58 |Display all floors
Originally posted by copchen at 2008-5-14 01:35 AM
三十多年过去了,计算机等技术发展如此之快,难道这方面的技术一点没有进展?甚至还不如三十多年以前?这难道是“科技还没有发展到能够预测地震的地步”这样的话能解释的了的吗?科技是靠人去研究、去探索的,而不是它自己就能发展的。如果人们把经费和精力都投到如何评职称、如何搞学术腐败上去了,科技能发展吗?

前半段:见 #22 Jeff 转载的说明。

后半段:同意你的见解。


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Post time 2008-5-14 13:53:27 |Display all floors
我感觉现在JL就像一个“认证派”,拿着一个刻有“已认证”的章在多数帖子上敲一下。

开个玩笑,没有恶意,只是感慨你学识渊博。:)

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Post time 2008-5-14 13:59:39 |Display all floors

网上摘录

不久前,四川省阿坝州防震减灾局“成功平息”的一起地震误传事件。
  5月9日,四川省政府网站上挂出一则消息。据该消息显示,5月3日晚8时,阿坝州防震减灾局接到群众咨询电话,求证“马尔康县梭磨乡马塘村将要发生大地震,村干部劝村民搬到户外居住”的传言是否属实。
  接到咨询电话后,阿坝州防震减灾局立即要求马尔康县防震减灾局采取措施,查找谣传来源,进行辟谣,做好宣传解释工作,“防止谣传进一步扩大”。
  接到情况通报后,马尔康县防震减灾局立即联系事发地梭磨乡人民政府,通报相关情况。乡人民政府迅速着手查找谣传来源,经查,此次谣传的发生是由于马尔康县在传达全省地质灾害防治工作电视电话会议时,村干部将“地质灾害”误听为“地震灾害”而造成。
  在阿坝州防震减灾局及时进行情况说明和乡、村干部的主动解释下,解除了村民的恐慌情绪,当地生产生活秩序快速恢复了正常。
  该消息注明来源为“省地震局”。
  阿坝州以及绵竹市都位于四川西北部,临近此次地震发生地汶川县。

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