Author: wchao37

China-North Korea Relationship [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2006-9-1 17:42:39 |Display all floors

Reply #35 eightyeight's post

Yours is a good summary of the salient points to talk to Kim Jr. about.

Basically he needs an education.

Poverty + absolute power in a stubborn man + nuclear weapons on long-range missiles = ???

There's a sense of unease that permeates every corner of Northeast Asia if not the world.  

In the name of protecting his country, he is actually endangering it by giving an excuse to Japan to go nuclear.

Who's going to attack North Korea?  Not unless the attacker wants to engage China in a tit-for tat.

But we must insist on finding a solution through negotiations.

There is no other way.

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Post time 2006-9-1 17:58:52 |Display all floors

Reply #34 chinese_hill's post

I admire you too, bossboy.  I wish I could misspell as many words as you do.  That requires a special kind of talent for sure.

But I cannot agree with you that "any war is stupid."

Some wars must be fought.  There is no room for appeasement.

If Hitler was stopped by the French when he entered the demilitarized Rhineland in 1936, he probably would have been delayed many years from starting WWII.  There would have been no Anschluss of Austria or seizure of Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia in 1938.  In fact, there would have been no Munich Agreement.

So some wars must be fought.

Neville Chamberlain, Britain's PM from May 1937 to September 1939, thought that he could trust Hitler and that he had reached an honorable settlement with Herr Hitler at Munich.

As Churchill later said, Chamberlain was given a choice between shame and war.  He chose shame, but eventually war couldn't be avoided either.

So China must fight when the time comes.  There is no way out when she is forced to the corner.  Appeasement doesn't work -- it never had and never will.

Of course that doesn't mean we fight at the drop of a pin, but the reality of our geopolitical environment tells us that we cannot pin our hopes on someone not attacking us.

We have to make war preparations on the assumption that a sneaky attack from a certain neighbor or its offshore balancer will come tomorrow.

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Post time 2006-9-1 22:07:07 |Display all floors

More Than a Rumor of War

There remains an historical unresolved impasse with North Korea from the perspective of the US mindset. However, North Korea cannot be construed as being any kind of an imminent threat to Israel, except perhaps through the supply of weapons to Israel’s enemies. Consequently, I see no real physical threat to North Korea from the US and their allies anytime in the next several years -- at least until the Aegis anti-missile system has been replaced with the new system (which is predicted to be completed within just a few short years). After which, I expect that unless North Korea has gone through the proper international protocol for making such a launch, that any missile North Korea tries to launch will be immediately shot-down.

Meanwhile, Japan finds excuses to build a military, the US trains and trains in Croatia, Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq and beyond; a relationship with China becomes more and more integral to the interests of the US and the West while the omnipresent potential for internal upheaval in North Korea (which would create a whole shift of power in the region) persists. But the War on North Korea simmers in North Korean isolation, sanctions and squeeze.

Hovering over the little peninsula Nation is a big guy’s Navy and guns, spies and intrusions, just watching, waiting and studying – looking for weaknesses, opportunity and excuse.

I have no good real sense of what the nasty US and Western power brokers will do beyond a few years and I think there are too many variables to see with much clarity very far ahead. But I do see an opportunity!

I see an opportunity for North Korea to take advantage of what China has to offer, and not just in China’s guidance and experience, which can provide North Korea with a real genuine working infrastructure, an international market, finances, improved productivity and yield, as well as things like alternative energy technology, etc., but because China is the new big guy in the region! China has the resources critical to the region, and soon enough, the clout to make or break any of their neighbors, financially, including Japan!

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Post time 2006-9-3 09:18:14 |Display all floors

Reply #38 eightyeight's post

What can I say?   I have read your message carefully and we are in total agreement on the main points.

Yes, I agree that in the foreseeable future despite all the ballyhoo surrounding Kim's missile launches, there will be no large-scale Sino-American conflict other than occasional skirmishes in the area, because America's vital interests have not yet been seriously threatened.  

I also agree that this is too much of a variable simply because the dependability of ABM technology cannot be assured.  Maybe that's why Kim Jr. is tap-dancing while thumbing his nose at both China and the U.S.

The American seizure of Korean assets in Macao banks and elsewhere seems to have squeezed Kim by the balls and it really hurts.  I suspect that many high officials in Kim's entourage have had their accounts closed and this has created a state of alarm unprecedented in the Pyongyang leadership.  Of course they can print more counterfeit money, but this is not going to solve the problem of true assets being frozen by the Bush administration.

So the Six party talks have been temporarily shelved to give way to a five-nation format.

My primary concern is the simmering crisis in the Taiwan Strait especially if Annette Lu ascends the leadership position.  Her previously proven recklessness might be the last straw that will break the status quo, with increasing conflicts evolving into an unnecessary Sino-American confrontation in the Strait.  

Trade should be the strong hand staying the course of our bilateral relationship in the early 21st century, but politicians on Capitol Hill are still too ossified in their anti-China stand to allow high-tech exports to go to China to help ease the trade and current account deficits.

I can assure you that China has no aggressive designs on America.  Not one soldier will ever traverse the Pacific to attack the U.S. even if China surpasses America in both military and economic prowess someday.  A similar statement cannot be made of the Japanese.  But the Bushies should of course understand that Chinese restraint should not be misconstrued as weakness.

Let's hope Kim shows similar restraint to give peace a chance.

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Post time 2006-9-4 03:39:16 |Display all floors

Reply #39 wchao37's post

I see the future of US relationships with China growing closer. What’s my reason? Something that may be only of a short duration, but which takes on the characteristics of the trends produced within the American media: China has been cast in a much more favorable light over the past four or five months in the American media, especially from the television broadcasters, which have a far greater influence within the country than newspapers.

Suddenly, not just the History Channel is awash with China stories, but the independent movie broadcasters have been portraying much more Chinese movies, regularly; and the talking heads of the anti-neocon rhetoric are now clearly overwhelming the Rush Limbaugh and Lou Dobbs personalities of the past – Chris Mathews of MSNBC seems to be the very clear winner, while the best CNN could manage is to parade out a new guy, Glenn Beck, who is just too goofy for the average guy and gal (does this new program appeal to a small targeted group of power brokers? – what other purpose could it serve?).

Certainly since the days of Sumerian and ancient Egyptian civilizations were out-stripped by the new Semitic technology, money has been an essential aspect of commerce, and life. And, the death by starvation or any other means of innocent people weigh little in the equation of a civilization’s struggle to survive.

North Korea will be forced into starvation and perhaps internal turmoil, as probably hoped. A long slow choke hold! The American power brokers are more interested in making their favorite ‘home-away-from-home’ safe from all their many very displeased Middle East neighbors, who have been extremely angry at their blatant uncaring and unconcerned attitude (which has been the basis of all their self-created troubles) and have taken from throwing stones to the absolute inhumane.

I haven’t been that up on what is taking place inside Taiwan, politically, last I looked it seemed like the people there were good and fed-up with Chen. Anyway, the choke-hold on North Korea will take time, and time is on China’s side, across the Straights and everywhere!

Like I said, the American power brokers may be nasty, but they are not stupid! China Rises, with or without them!

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Post time 2006-9-4 03:50:17 |Display all floors

Back to current solutions?

The best North Korea can manage is to let China help it create an infrastructure that reflects China's wisdom. Otherwise, the West will be all up and into their ish!

A package, of course, will have to come in a series of stages -- doing those things that can be done first and then weighing the potentials and possibilities for the next stage which might give Korea back its own currency and a banking structure in some kind of an arrangement with China and perhaps, South Korea.

If China can put together a detailed package of proposals that look to North Korean interests and find concessions for the DPRK that might be allowed by the US and Western power brokers, especially the banksters, then peace might truly have a real chance.

Naturally, my ideas are probably out-of-step and way out in wonderland, but I do see a way, or so I think.

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Post time 2006-9-4 04:22:57 |Display all floors

The catch

South Korea can actually play a more constructive role in this if it comes to pass.  The trouble I see is that is Kim Jr. might not want to appear too dependent on the South because he is still dreaming of uniting all of Korea by force, so in his mind economic concerns are taking a back seat to military ones.  He is in a completely different paradigm from the rest of the world.  

After being urged to carry on economic reforms by at least two generations of Chinese leaders, he is still dragging his feet on the essential steps to carry out any meaningful changes.  That means he is really preparing for war -- why construct when you are expecting imminent destruction.

That's why I think even though the feasibility of effecting a sea change in the North's economy has been there all the time, nothing will happen until Kim passes from the scene, and the main obstacle right now is that Kim has sized up the situation and come to the conclusion that a liberalized economy will compromise his family's stranglehold on power.

[ Last edited by wchao37 at 2006-9-5 03:08 AM ]

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