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人民币汇率形成机制改革:一个中国研究者的看法
Reform of the Renminbi Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism: Some Viewpoints of a Chinese Researcher

中国社会科学院金融研究所所长  
Li Yang, Director of Financial Research Institute under Chinese Academy of Social Sciences


引言
Forward

1997年亚洲金融危机以来,人民币汇率两度成为世界关注的焦点。
Since the eruption of Asian financial crisis in 1997, the RMB exchange rate has become the focal points to the whole world for two times.
一次是在1998~2000年,那正是亚洲金融危机肆虐之时。当时,全世界几乎异口同声地宣称:人民币应当贬值,否则中国经济将面临灭顶之灾。然而,中国政府经过多方面权衡,做出了人民币不贬值的决定;而且,为了表明诚意,中国政府还收窄了人民币对美元的浮动区间,这使得人民币汇率事实上钉住了美元。从那以后的发展来看,中国政府的决定是完全正确的:其一,它使中国的经济和金融体系免受亚洲金融危机的直接冲击,有效阻止了危机的蔓延;其二,在相对稳定的金融环境下,中国经济成功地克服了通货紧缩的冲击,国民经济保持了稳定、持续、快速发展;其三,人民币的稳定,对亚洲地区金融体系的稳定以及亚洲地区经济的恢复,发挥了十分积极的作用;其四,中国的国际地位因此大大提高。此外,并非不重要的是,中国在世纪之交的这次大规模汇率政策的“演练”也产生了非常有价值的思想产品,它提醒中国的研究者:那些一向令人敬畏的汇率理论,特别是它们所预言的看似逻辑严密的各种结果,其合理性和适用性,并非是不可怀疑的。
The first time came during 1998~2000, when Asian financial crisis broke out. At the period of time, a chorus of voices from every corner of the world declared: RMB should depreciate to some extent, or the Chinese economy would suffer from a catastrophe. However, the Chinese government weighed the advantages and disadvantages before they reached a decisive solution that RMB exchange rate remain unchanged; and furthermore, to express its sincerity, the Chinese government tightened the Floating Range of RMB exchange rate against U.S. dollar, which actually forced RMB exchange rate pegged US dollar at a fixed value. Viewed the development of China’s economy from then onwards, the Chinese government’s decision is rather correct, clearly manifested in: firstly, protecting China’s economy and financial system free from the immediate impact of the Asian financial crisis, effectively blockading the spread of the crisis; secondly, under the comparatively steady financial environment, China’s economy successfully overcame the impact of the inflation, thus the national economy maintained steady, sustainable and rapid development; thirdly, the stability of RMB exchange rate played a positive role in stabilizing the financial systems and restoring the economy in Asia; fourthly, China's international standing was thus greatly enhanced. Last but not the least important, the “maneuvering” of the large-scale exchange rate policy at the turn of the century produced valuable ideological product which clearly b ring it home to the Chinese researchers: the rationality and adequacy of the awe-inspiring exchange rate theories, particularly all kinds of seemingly logical and well-founded outcomes they have predicted, are not unquestioned.  
2002年以来,人民币汇率再度成为世界关注的焦点。不过,这一次我们面对的是与几年前相反的压力。
Since 2002 once more has RMB exchange rate drawn the attention of the world. This time, nevertheless, China was faced with the pressure quite opposite to what they were face with several years ago
2002年,日本等少数国家就开始在国际社会上散布“中国输出通货紧缩”论。2003年,这种论调进一步升格为要求人民币升值的呼声。实在说,对于来自日本方面的指责,中国人是颇为反感的。因为,如果说汇率调整的目的是平衡国家间的贸易不平衡,那么,鉴于中国对日本贸易一直存在逆差,人民币对日元反倒应贬值才是。至于中国向日本输出通货紧缩,那更是无稽之谈。因为,日本的物价从上个世纪80年代末期就开始下行,中国的物价走势直到90年代后半叶方才出现下走的趋势,何谈中国向日本输出通货紧缩?
In 2002 Japan and some few countries spread the rumor “China's exporting currency deflation” to the international community. In 2003 this argument gathered strength and repeatedly called for the appreciation of RMB exchange rate. As a matter of fact, confronted with the reproaches from the Japanese side, the Chinese people felt rather repugnant. The fact goes clear here: if the purpose of the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate is to balance the trade disparity between nations, the RMB exchange rate against the Japanese Yen should be depreciated instead because Sino-Japanese trade has constantly remained in deficit. So it is sheer absurdity to say China is exporting currency deflation to Japan. The reason is so simple in that the price in Japan went down starting from the late 1980s while China’s price didn’t go down until the last part the 1990s century, so come that China exported its currency deflation to Japan?
以美国为首的其他发达国家的态度起初略有差别:他们并不直接责难人民币的汇率水平,而是批评人民币汇率的形成机制。具有代表性的说法是:人民币汇率如果继续钉住美元,可能会破坏中国国内货币体系的功能,并在中国引发通货膨胀。  到了2005年前后,上述分散的压力逐步演变成为发达国家的国际合唱:日本、美国、欧盟等主要发达国家,或基于国内经济的需要,或迫于国内政治的压力,不约而同地祭起“祸水东引”的老法宝,或要求中国改变汇率制度,或径直要求人民币升值。一时间,山雨欲来风满楼。
The attitude aired by some other developed countries led by the United Sates differed from that of the countries led by Japan at the very beginning: they didn’t directly censure the RMB exchange rate level but criticized the exchange rate formation mechanism. Of the typical arguments goes like this: should RMB exchange rate continued to be pegged to the US dollar, it might impair the function of China’s domestic monetary system and trigger off inflation1 . Prior to and after 2005, the above sporadic pressure evolved into the international chorus of the developed nations in the world, mainly including Japan, the US and developed countries in the EU. These countries resorted to the old magic weapon in union invoking the so-called “diverting the misfortune to the East”, either on the basis of their own internal economic demand or under the internal political pressure, requiring the Chinese government to adjust its exchange rate regime or randomly calling for the appreciation of RMB exchange rate. For a moment, the gale is raging and the storm is about to burst.
一、        中国政府的基本立场
I.        The basic Positions of the Chinese government
面对此起彼伏的国际压力和国内外媒体不厌其烦的炒作,中国政府做出了明确且理性的回应。
Faced with the bubbling and bursting pressure from the international community and the tireless  sensationalization of the domestic and overseas media, the Chinese government made the clear and rational response.
2003年10月19日,中国国家主席胡***在亚太经合组织工商界领导人峰会的演讲中,首次系统表述了中国政府对于人民币汇率制度的基本态度。他指出:中国实行以市场供求为基础的、单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制度,这是同当前中国的经济发展阶段、金融监管水平和企业承受能力相适应的。
On October 19, 2003 Chinese president Hu Jingtao delivered a speech at APEC CEO SUMMIT 2003, clearly presenting the basic attitude of the Chinese government towards RMB exchange rate regime for the first time. He pointed out that China would exercise the a unitary, managed floating RMB exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand, which complies with China’s current economic development stage and the financial supervisory level and the corporate bearing capacity.

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2004年12月8日,国务院总理温家出席第七次中欧领导人会晤时明确指出:人民币汇率的市场化改革是我们的既定方针,但是,实行人民币汇率弹性机制必须考虑以下几个因素:一是中国宏观经济稳定,市场经济体系完善,金融体系健全;二是要有科学的方案,以保证中国经济健康持续发展;三是要考虑对周边国家的影响;中国要对周边国家负责,要对世界负责。
On December 8, 2004, Premier ^^ clearly pointed out at the 7th Session of the Central European Leader Summit: the marketlization of RMB exchange rate reform is our established policy. However, some factors should be taken into account while we exercise the elastic RMB exchange rate regime: firstly China’s microeconomy remains stable; market economic system is perfect and the financial system is sound; secondly there should be a scientific solution so as to ensure the sustainable and sound development of China’s economy; thirdly, the impact of the neighboring countries should be taken into consideration; and last, China should be reliable for the neighboring countries and for the whole world.
2005年6月26日,针对美国国会和财政部要求人民币汇率必须在6个月内升值的说法,&&总理在天津召开的亚欧财长会上再次做出明确回应。除了重申人民币汇率改革是中国内政,并强调这项改革必须具备一定条件之外,他进一步指出了人民币汇率改革必须坚持主动性、可控性和渐进性的整体策略。他指出:“主动性,就是根据中国自身改革和发展的需要,决定汇率改革的方式、内容和时机。汇率改革要充分考虑对宏观经济稳定、经济增长和就业的影响,考虑金融体系状况和金融监管水平,考虑企业承受能力和对外贸易等因素,还要考虑对周边国家、地区以及世界经济金融的影响。可控性,就是人民币汇率的变化要在宏观管理上能够控制得住,既要推进改革,又不能失去控制,避免出现金融市场动荡和经济大的波动。渐进性,就是有步骤地推进改革,不仅要考虑当前的需要,而且要考虑长远的发展,不能急于求成。”
On June 26, 2005in view of the demand made by the American Congress and Treasury Department, strongly requiring that RMB exchange rate be appreciated within 6 months, Premier ^^ reiterated the Chinese Government’s attitude at ASEM Finance Ministers Meeting held in Tianjin. In addition to reaffirming that the reform of RMB exchange rate is China’s internal policy, he continued to emphasize that this reform entailed some qualified conditions. He further pointed out that the reform of RMB exchange rate regime must follow the overall strategy of initiative, controllability and gradual progress. He continued, “The so-called initiative is based on the demand of China’s reform and economic development and the manners, contents and opportunity determining the exchange rate reform. Exchange rate reform entails full consideration of the affecting factors like the stability of the microeconomy, economic growth and employment and the financial system and financial supervisory level and the neighboring countries and regions and the world economic and financial impact should be taken into consideration. Here the controllability means that the change of RMB exchange rate should be brought under the macro-management control, thus ensuring that the reform can be further promoted but not out of control, and avoiding there appearing violent fluctuation of the financial market and economic convulsions. Gradual progress means that the reform should be carried out in a planned and systematic way, which requires us not only to consider the current demands but also the long-term development, so we can’t be overanxious for quick results”.
至此,关于人民币汇率制度改革的各方面问题,包括其目标、条件、方式和步骤,中国政府已经给出了相当明确的答复。
   So far, as for all the problems concerning the reform of the RMB exchange rate system, including the objectives, conditions, manners and specific procedures, the Chinese government has given a comparatively clear reply.  

二、        改革的过程及内容
II. Processes and contents of the reform
2005年7月21日,中国人民币银行发布公告称:中国自当日起,实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制。这表明,中国以回归管理浮动的方式,正式启动了人民币汇率机制弹性化改革。
On July 21, 2005 the People’s Bank of China published a notice: starting from the day of the publication, China would implement the managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, and to strengthen the pricing capability of the financial institutions, which indicates that China officially initiated the reform of the elastic RMB exchange rate system by reverting to managed floating manners.  
除了人民币官方宣布一次性贬值2%以外,此次改革的要点是回归有管理的浮动,以及在操作上参考“一篮子”货币。
The authorities announced that the RMB exchange rate would appreciate by 2% and the key point for this exchange rate reform consisted in regression to the managed floating regime and in practical operations, the reform is based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies at one time.
1、有管理的浮动是比较市场化的汇率制度
1. The managed floating exchange rate regime is the comparatively marketized exchange rate system
目前,国际货币基金组织将全球的汇率安排分为8类,依市场化程度由低而高依次为:无单独法定货币的汇率、货币局安排;传统的钉住(包括钉住单一货币和钉住一篮子货币)、水平区间钉住、爬行钉住、爬行区间;有管理浮动、和独立浮动。在这个菜单上,有管理的浮动被排在仅次于独立(完全)浮动、其市场化程度相当高的位置上。这是因为,从运行特征上看,管理浮动汇率制度是一种可以容纳巨大变化的较具弹性的制度。因此,中国从回归有管理的浮动开始汇率制度改革,为这一改革的未来发展开辟了比较宽广的空间。
At present, IMF categorizes the global Exchange Rate Arrangements into eight kinds according to the degree of the marketlization in the sequence from the lower level to the higher level, respectively, Exchange arrangements with no separate legal tender and currency board arrangements;Conventional fixed pegs (including pegging to a single currency and pegging to a basket of currencies), Pegged exchange rates within horizontal bands, Crawling Pegged Exchange Rate System, crawling band, Managed floating and Independent floating. On this menu, the managed floating system ranks only next to Independent (Full) floating system or in a position of higher marketability. The reason is simple because from the point of view of the operative features, the managed floating exchange rate system represents a elastic system permitting of tremendous changes. So since China regressed back to the managed and floating exchange rate system, it has blazed a wider path for the reform of further development in this respect.
2、推进改革的考虑:弱化投机资本的冲击动力
2. A viewpoint of promoting the reform: weakening the impulsive force of the risk capital
强调回归有管理的浮动,而将“一篮子”货币仅仅摆在参考的位置上,使得我国货币当局从被动应付(维持“钉住”的承诺)改变为主动出击(对外不承诺任何的汇率平价)。这种地位的转换,对汇率改革的顺利推进极为重要。事实上,在整个人民币汇率制度改革的过程中,如何尽可能弱化投机资本的冲击,始终构成重要的问题。从策略上看,能否弱化投机资本的冲击,不仅决定着改革启动的时机,而且可能决定改革的成败。实行有管理的浮动,即在制度上公开宣称人民币不同任何单一货币或“篮子货币”保持钉住关系,将使得投机资本难以获得关于中国汇率变动的明确信息,从而能够大大弱化其对人民币汇率制度展开冲击的动力,最终有利于汇率的稳定。质言之,放弃任何形式的“钉住”(包括钉住一篮子货币),将使我国货币当局在同投机资本的博弈中“主客易位”,货币当局因此获得了主动权。
It is emphasized that the regression to the managed floating system by putting “a basket of currencies” into the position of reference, thus rendering it possible for the monetary authorities to shift from the passive position (maintaining the “pegging” commitment) to the initiative position (not undertaking any par exchange rate). This change of positions plays a significant role in promoting the smooth reform of the exchange rate regime. As a matter of fact, in the whole process of the RMB exchange rate reform, it always remains a vital problem as to how to weaken the impact of the risk capital. Strategically speaking, whether to weaken the impact of the risk capital not only determines the opportunity of initializing the reform but also determines the success or failure of the exchange rate reform. The implementation of the managed floating exchange rate system signals clearly that RMB exchange rate, systematically speaking, shall not maintain the relationship to be pegged to a certain single currency or pegged to a basket of currencies, thus rendering it rather difficult for risk capital to get the definite information of the change of RMB exchange rate and considerably weakening the impulsive force against the RMB exchange rate system and ultimately facilitating the stability of the RMB exchange rate. In essence, the abandonment of any form of “pegging” (including pegging to a basket of currencies) steer the monetary authorities into a favorable position by changing its role in the game with the risk capital.

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不是高手,只是个英文票友。

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Post time 2006-5-13 15:31:02 |Display all floors
interesting!

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Post time 2006-5-13 15:31:25 |Display all floors
not a easy job!

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