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Post time 2006-5-13 14:58:31 |Display all floors
国际生产网络使中美顺差中包含了部分亚洲对美国的贸易顺差
The international production network makes the Sino-US trade surplus conceal some Asian countries’ trade surplus with the US   

近年来,以国际生产网络为主要特征的新的国际分工模式发展迅猛。中国广泛参与了国际生产网络,这反映在中国的加工贸易在对外贸易中占据了重要地位上。中国常常从亚洲其她国家或地区进口原材料和零部件,经过加工再出口到美国或其他国家。2004年中国对日本,韩国,东盟5国和我国台湾省的加工贸易逆差为633亿美元,同时中国对美国却有加工贸易顺差727亿美元。这些活动使得本来是其她亚洲国家对美国的贸易顺差转移到了中国对美国的贸易顺差中,从而夸大了中国自身对美国的贸易差额。
In recent years, the new mode of international division of labor, mainly characterized by international production network, gains a rapid development. China extensively participates in the international production network, which reflects that China’s processing trade has taken a dominating position in foreign trade. Every so often China imports raw materials and component parts from countries and regions in Asia and then process products for re-export to the US or other countries. In 2004 Mainland China’s processing trade deficit with Japan, Korea and China’s Taiwan Province totaled 63.3 billion US dollars but at the same time China’s processing trade surplus with the US reached 72.7 billion US dollars. These trading activities transfer other Asian countries’ trade surplus to China’s trade surplus with the US, thus exaggerating China’s trade surplus with the US.

中国现有的贸易统计没有建立进口和出口的关联统计,不能准确描述中国到底代替了其她国家多少贸易顺差。同时,美国的“原产地规则”也不能识别出来自中国的出口有多少是真正“原产”自中国,而是简单地将这些出口全部计入中国。这使得在观察美国贸易逆差来源的时候,所有的目光都集中在中国,国际贸易发展的真实动向反而被掩盖了。
China’s current trade statistics does not establish the affiliated statistics between export and import, thus it cannot precisely depict how much trade surplus China represents in lieu of other countries and regions. In the mean while, The US “Rules of Origin” fails to identify how much “trade origin” genuinely from China but simply incorporates all these exports into its deficit with China. So it follows that in observing the origin of the US trade deficit almost everyone focuses their attention on China, so the real trend of the international trade development is, on the contrary, enshrouded.      

现有的国际贸易统计不能真实反映中美“国民”之间的贸易
The current international trade statistics does not genuinely reflect the Citizen-to-Citizen trade between China and the US

造成中国对美贸易顺差巨大错觉的另一个重要但尚未引起广泛注意的原因是现行统计方法没有考虑出口企业所有权的国别差异。最近有国际组织的学者指出,美国政府为了掌握海外公司的生产经营活动,从上世纪90年代初开始就建立了以所有权为基础的国民贸易统计体系。
Another vital but unheeded reason for the huge illusion of China’s surplus with the US consists in the fact that national difference of the export enterprises’ ownership in the current statistic method. Recently scholars from the international organizations have pointed out, in order to have a better command of the production and operation activities of its overseas companies, the US government established the property-based Citizen-to-Citizen Trade Statistic System starting from the early 1990s.  
现行贸易统计以货物进出国境为核算基础。判断内贸还是外贸的标准是商品是否跨越国境。这一统计体系不能准确核算以“国民”为单位的交易。因而也不能依此进行以“国民”为基础的利益分析。
The current statistics is based on the calculation of the goods entering or leaving the territory. The judging standard as to whether it is internal trade or external trade determines whether the goods goes beyond the border. This statistic system can’t precisely calculate the trade with the citizen-to-citizen trade as the unit. Hence it can’t be used to analyse the interest with the citizen-to-citizen basis.

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Post time 2006-5-13 14:58:50 |Display all floors
首先,在中国与美国的贸易中,一部分是欧亚等外资企业在中国的生产经营活动造成的。这些外资企业产品对美国的出口,主要是外国国民与美国国民之间的贸易。其次,在中国与美国的贸易中,还有一部分是在华美资企业造成的,很大程度上是美国人自己与自己的贸易。在这两部分中美贸易中,中国国民只是提供了劳务等服务。但是由于其商品在中美之间跨境流动,因而在现有的贸易统计体系中,都属于中美贸易。另外,在华美资企业也在中国购买和销售产品。由于这些交易中包含了不同“国民”的所得之间的交换,在一定意义上是美国国民与中国国民之间的交易,但是这些交易没有跨境流动,因而在现有贸易统计中不属于中美贸易。可见,现有的中美贸易统计包含了一部分非中国国民与美国国民之间的贸易,同时排除了一部分中国国民与美国国民之间的真实交易。
First of all, a certain part of the Sino-US trade is composed of the production and operation activities conducted by foreign invested enterprises, particularly the Asian and European enterprises in China. The products of these foreign invested enterprises are exported to the US market, mainly between the American citizens and the foreign citizens. Secondly, the Sino-us trade is contributed by some US-invested enterprises in China, on a considerable degree between the American citizens. In these two parts of the Sino-US trade, the Chinese citizens are only providing labor service. As the goods is circulating across the borders between China and the US, it belongs to the Sino-US trade in the current trade statistic system. In addition, the US-invested enterprises in China are also purchasing and selling products in China. As these trade sanctions are conducted among different “citizens”, or in a sense between American citizens and the Chinese citizens, but these trade sanctions are not circulating across the borders, so they are not categorized into the Sino-US trade in terms of the current trade statistics. It is evident that the Sino-US trade contains a certain part of the trade between non-Chinese citizens and American citizens and at the same time eliminates a certain part of the genuine trade between Chinese citizens and American citizens.
随着中国开放程度的不断提高,在中国从事生产经营活动的外资企业越来越多,上述三类贸易也越来越多,因而现有的中美贸易统计越来越偏离中美国民贸易的真实情况。
With the constant improvement of China’s reform and opening up, there will be more and more foreign invested enterprises in China engaged in production and operation activities and there will be more and more of the three trades as mentioned above, so the current Sino-US trade statistics deviate from the real scenario of the Sino-US citizen-to-citizen trade.


真实的情况:中美“国民”之间的贸易基本平衡
The real scenario  
根据上述三类贸易情况对现有海关统计中的中美贸易数据进行调整,可以发现中美“国民”之间的贸易其实基本平衡。
According to the above-mentioned three trade scenarios, adjustment of Sino-US trade data as indicated in the current customs statistics can bring it home to us that the Sino-US citizen-to-citizen trade keeps a basic balance.
2004年,中国海关统计的中美贸易顺差为802.7亿美元。其中在华外资企业(包括美资企业)对美国出口822.7亿美元,从美国进口233.3亿美元,实现对美贸易顺差为589.4亿美元。
In 2004 the Sino-US trade surplus shown in the statistics of China Customs reached 80.27 billion yuan, in which foreign invested enterprises contributed to a total export volume of 82.27 billion dollars and a total import volume of 23.33 billion dollars, bringing about a total trade surplus of 58.94 billion dollars with the US.  
另外,在华美资企业还在中国境内销售了大量商品。2004年美资企业在中国市场的销售额为750亿美元。在华美资企业在中国市场上的销售额在扣除中国中间产品投入和中国要素服务收入后的价值等于绕过关税壁垒的美国对华“出口”。我们大致估算,这部分“出口”的价值应该有上百亿美元。
Besides, the US-invested enterprises sell a large quantity of goods in China. In 2004 the sales volume of the US-invested enterprises reached 75 billion dollars in the Chinese market. The sales volume in the Chinese market by the US-invested enterprises is tantamount to the US “Export” to China circumventing the tariff barrier after the values of the intermediate product input and Net income derived directly from the provision of services are deducted. Roughly estimated, this part of “export” should be worthy of 10 billion dollars.
这样,在海关统计的中美贸易差额802.7亿美元中,扣除在华外资企业与美国的贸易差额589.4亿美元中属于外资所得的部分,和中国境内美资企业的对中国国民的“净出口”上百亿美元,2004年中美国民之间的贸易差额要比统计上的802.7亿美元少得多。如果考虑到由于中国代替亚洲其她国家对美国的贸易顺差和在华美资企业购买产品中的非中国产部分,在中美贸易中,中国国民对美出口的价值增值是否是顺差还未可知呢!遗憾的是,由于缺乏统计数据,我们无法给出具体数字。
In this way, in the Sino-US trade margins of 80.27 billion dollars as indicated in the statistics of China customs, if the foreign investment earnings out of the trade margins 58.94 billion dollars of the foreign invested enterprises and the US trade and more than 10 billion dollars of the “net export” of the US-invested enterprises in China to the Chinese citizens are deducted accordingly, the margins of the Sino-US citizen-to-citizen trade in 2004 was much larger than the 80.27 billion dollars as indicated in the statistics. If the foreign trade surplus with the US represented by China for the other Asian countries and the part of the products not made in China but purchased by the US-invested enterprises in China are taken into consideration in the Sino-US trade, it is not known yet whether the value increment of the export to the US by the Chinese citizens is surplus or not. However, it is a great pity that for the absence of the statistic data, it is out of the question for us to present the specific data.
2005年,中国海关统计的中美贸易顺差为1141.7亿美元。估计在华外资企业(包括美资企业)对美国出口1079亿美元,从美国进口279亿美元,实现对美贸易顺差800亿美元;在华美资企业在中国境内向中国国民“净出口”很可能明显高于2004年。扣除在华外资企业与美国的贸易差额中属于外资所得的部分,和中国境内美资企业的对中国国民的“净出口”,中国贸易顺差所剩无几。如果再考虑亚洲其她国家转移到中国的贸易顺差,中国对美国很可能没有什么顺差,甚至有一定数量的逆差。
In 2005 the Sino-US trade surplus as calculated in the statistics of China Customs reached 114.17 billion dollars. It is highly estimated that the foreign invested enterprise (the US-invested enterprises in China) enjoyed a total export volume of 107.9 billion dollars and a total import volume of 27.9 billion dollars, realizing the trade surplus of 80 billion dollars with the US; The “Net export” of the US-invested enterprises in China to the Chinese citizens was obviously higher than that of 2004.
if the foreign investment earnings out of the trade margins of the foreign invested enterprises and the US trade and the “net export” of the US-invested enterprises in China to the Chinese citizens are deducted accordingly, China’s trade surplus with the US almost left not much behind. If the transferred trade surplus from other Asian countries into China’s trade surplus with the US is taken into account, it is likely that Sino-US trade surplus leaves nothing to be calculated, or even a certain deficit instead.

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