Author: raymondusa

Beijing's leverage over Taiwan [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2006-2-13 14:32:46 |Display all floors
sacto11:

Your postings are usually shorter because you don’t have facts to share, and you don’t understand what you are talking about (more on this in a moment).  My postings vary from short to longer because there are times when I want to share facts, and explain things in details.  Just because you don’t have command of the subject, don’t know the facts, and don’t understand the details, is really your problem, and your detriment, as it doesn’t change the facts.
   
Let’s start with the funny part.  You tried to argue with me about China’s $820b in currency reserves and you don’t even know where to find and verify that information!  Folks, I cannot make this stuff up.  Leave it to this guy to argue about something for which he doesn’t even know the answer to, nor how to verify it!  I post the facts, and welcome anyone to verify it and try to prove me wrong.  I’m sure the folks here are smart enough to see that you don’t even have any factual retorts.  When you can only give your opinions with no supporting facts, it tells me you have nothing.   

Now let’s get to the rest of your opinions.  If you add 50 states together, you get the United States.  So what?  50 Thailands equal China?   What an embarrassingly weak argument!  

It does not change the fact that US is in China for more than just cheap labor.  China has huge domestic savings of 40+ percent of GDP ready for domestic consumption, on pace for the largest currency reserves in the world, huge government spending, and large amounts of liquidity (since the people do save) to lend to other debt-ridden countries like USA.  US cannot realistically go elsewhere because of three reasons, so get uses to it.  1) US need financing, and China has the liquidity and money to lend to debt-ridden US.  2) US companies, just like Taiwan, need the domestic consumption of China to sustain its own economy.  That’s one reason China has no problems attract FDIs because a country must first invest into China, before it can gain access to the Chinese market.   3) Demand for lower cost products will increase as US financial problems increase (baby boom generation is getting ready to retire, and US has under funded, unfunded liabilities in Social Security, Medicare, and Pensions).  People will continue to look for ways to save money so demand for Chinese products isn’t go away anytime soon.  Therefore, it’s a no brainer to be friendly with China.  

I’ve forgotten more about economic, than you know now.  Both supply and demand drives a healthy economy.  You can have all the demand you want, but if there isn’t supply to meet demand, you are in trouble.  You can have all the supply, but if no one is really demanding your products, your supply is useless.  Here are two examples from the real world.  USA currently demands oil and financing in large amounts.  The oil producing countries have the oil, China has the money to finance, and both have leverage over US.  It’s because of this dis-equilibrium in demand over supply that US loses leverage.  Conversely, you can have all the supply, but if there isn’t the demand, you are also in trouble (GM is a good example and may be bankrupted this year, despite having the supply but not enough demand).  Therefore, you need both, Supply and Demand to match in equilibrium, since dis-equilibrium like US needing so much financing and oil, just creates leverage for others.   

China is optimizing its reserve portfolio.  That a diplomatic way of saying that some of these assets are moving into other currencies, strategic oil reserves, other raw material reserves, future and options of these raw materials, and slowing or even sell off dollar denominated assets in the future.  If US truly have many other realistic options to finance its deficits and debts, post those options here.  Otherwise, you are just full of talk, without facts.   

I’ll give you credit for trying to be somewhat fairer about your opinions, even when you don’t have enough facts. At least that is an improvement over fish.

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Post time 2006-2-14 06:50:17 |Display all floors
sacto11:

You cannot even guarantee that US can get to 3 centuries, so why waste your money betting on something you cannot prove.  Get a clue!   You are just full of talk, with no facts as usual!   Do you even know the currency reserve for Thailand?   BTW, I looked it up.  50 Thailands don’t equal China’s currency reserves.  As usual, you don’t have a factual answer, but just more specious opinions.

Do you even understand what currency reserves are?  Those reserves don't represent the entire balance sheet of China.  But those reserves are enough to move markets and change interest rates.  If you were really in the US, you would know I'm telling you the truth.   Interest rates have gone up and real estate has cooled off considerably.   Yeah, there are pockets of appreciation, but the market has cooled off.   

Let me break it down very simply for you.  As long as US cannot pay its bills and need financing, China has leverage as its lender.  Get uses to it!   All your talk doesn’t change that!   

I already wrote that I don’t care what label people use – unification, reunification, economic absorption, integration, etc.  I care about peace on the Straits.  I cannot simplify this anymore.     

It’s okay that you didn’t understand the most basic economic law – Law of Supply and Demand.  At least you were honest enough to admit that you didn’t take an economic class so I’ll give you credit for that.  But don’t try to talk about a subject for which you clearly don’t even have the facts, nor even understand the subject.

If US truly have all these financing options, post them here!   Otherwise, don’t be so pathetic with cheap talk!

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Post time 2006-2-14 08:43:50 |Display all floors
sacto11:

What pathetic logic.  It is so because you say it is so (Thailand).   How damn funny is that?  You have no facts, but just sorry specious opinions, and you don’t even know how to verify the facts.  You don’t know the currency reserves for Thailand and it shows.   Only you keep talking without facts.   You are laughably pathetic!!!!   It is so, because you say it is so……ROTFLMAO.   That’s supposes to be a factual answer?   You didn’t need to tell me you never took an economic class, because it is painfully obvious from your writing.   

FYI, I was born in the USA, so I don’t need to take an oath.  Don’t you know anything!  

I have access to real estate data for the entire USA.  Yes, there are some pockets of appreciation in California and well as other parts of USA.  But as interest rates have gone up, the NAR has posted data with increasing inventory all over the country so that is an overall slowdown.  It is so easy to verify my information and refute your lies here.  Call the NAR and the MBA (since these are national organizations) and ask them, how much slower is the market now, as interest rates are up?  Anyone who is actually in US would already know what I’m posting is the truth, since there is plenty of national market data to verify it.   

I will repost this question because I know you don’t have the answer.  If US truly have all these financing options, what are these options and post them here? Otherwise, don’t be so pathetic with cheap talk!  Be careful, as you are getting closer to fish’s level now!

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Post time 2006-2-14 09:21:42 |Display all floors
I am afraid that living too long on island each one would generate some kinds of parochialism meanwhile island's character

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Post time 2006-2-14 11:24:49 |Display all floors
sacto11:

Sorry guy.  I’m already happily married.  My wife and I will be going on a ski vacation and celebrating Valentine’s Day.   Let me post one more question for you before I go as this was fun, and when I return from vacation, I will read your answer, if you have any factual answers.   Remember, it is so easy for me to verify information so it must just be your naiveté to think you can post nonsense and specious opinions, without someone challenging it.   

If US are supposes to be so omnipotent, why couldn’t it force China to remove the RMB peg sooner?  China has been pegging the RMB to the dollar since 1994 (so you cannot really say manipulation since whatever movement during that time was parallel to whatever Greenspan did) and despite whining from Congress, it was only moved to a basket of currencies last July because China decided it was the right time.  It only took 11 years, so where is this power you are referring to?   

Inflation is a doubled edge sword.  Yes, my properties have appreciated too!  But there is also a bad side to inflated property values.  US inflation makes the housing cost skyrocket, and increase the cost of living far beyond what it should be, rendering our labor force non-competitive in a global marketplace.  Be careful when you talk about appreciated housing values.  Yes, it is great to have appreciation. But be fair and realize that these inflated housing cost, adds to the cost of living, which is actually an Achilles heel for US, as it is becoming less and less competitive since others don’t have a falsely inflated economy.

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Post time 2006-2-18 01:41:21 |Display all floors
Two points here:

1) That's great, but what exactly are you wanting to get across? That Taiwan should shut up because there is a big bully next door? I'm sorry, but that's really how it comes across. You talk as if there are only two options - unification or war. Does TI have no place in such a discussion? Why not? What are the benefits of unification compared with 'two countries, two systems' and mutual trade agreements?

2) Let me give you a practical example of the mutual relationship at work here. I own a Taiwanese company that exports to the UK. All R&D is performed by Taiwanese or Americans here in Taiwan, and manufacture is outsourced to a mainland Chinese factory. This is a model shared by a good percentage of Taiwanese companies doing business in China.

Why did I choose China for manufacturing? Taiwan is out because the high wage costs and expensive real estate would make it difficult to compete. And sure, the labour in China is cheap, but labour is even cheaper in Thailand. The answer is that China is geographically close, has a good track record for low-mid value high volume output and perhaps most importantly has a shared Mandarin language.

And how does my business work? For every US$1,000 I pay the Chinese factory for manufacturing, I turnover at least US$8,000. That remaining US$7,000 is coming straight back into Taiwan where I am paying ROC taxes and investing in Taiwanese staff and development. Taiwan undoubtedly relies on China for manufacturing, but is the picture really as one-sided as you make out? For all of those billions of dollars being poured into Taiwan by China, which side is receiving the largest benefit? None of my staff receive less than US$10,000/year and, like me, they live in comfortable houses with unrestricted media access and little fear of government interference in their daily lives.

Now, when I think of my own situation, I wonder just what a unification of mainland China and Taiwan would do for me. 'Ah,' I think, 'whenever I export from Eastern Europe into the UK, I pay no VAT and no import tax.' But wait - I'm still trading between separate countries with separate governments, yet the EEC works perfectly well without an 'United Kingdom of England and Slovakia'. In fact, international competition with relaxed trading laws fuels the entire EEC economy in ways that intranational competition would not. 'Ah, but wouldn't it be nice to have direct links between mainland China and Taiwan'. Hmm.. but I can travel quite easily on a direct flight from TPE to LAX. If China allowed TI, this problem wouldn't exist. So we know the benefits of unification vs. the current status quo. But what is different from the benefits of ANYTHING vs. the current status quo, including TI? If you want unification, it's time to sell it to us in Taiwan instead of pointing out how big and powerful you are.

If my access to China was suddenly cut off by Beijing, what would I do? Well, I would continue selling stock reserves and in the meantime shift production to a partner in Thailand or India. It would add an extra layer of hassles to my everyday business, but I could have the whole process completed in a matter of weeks.

Arrogance breeds ignorance, and ignorance breeds conflict.

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Post time 2006-2-18 11:41:15 |Display all floors
Huh? I don't think you understood. Reread and try again.

Originally posted by sacto11 at 2006-2-18 03:46
business is business, and politics is politics,  they should not be mixed.  for example japan and austerlia have such good realations that both countries's citizens can travel back and fourth witho ...

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