Author: raymondusa

Beijing's leverage over Taiwan [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2006-2-10 13:14:05 |Display all floors
Fish:

Bribing and begging is what CSB does since he wants other countries to recognize it.  Too bad Taiwan doesn’t have the economic and political leverage to change the regional dynamics.  I will repost the main point so it is very clear.  

As Taiwan relies more on exporting to China to sustain its economy, and as US depends more on China’s financing for its huge debts, unification looks more likely as the eventual outcome.

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hanlei has been deleted
Post time 2006-2-10 15:59:26 |Display all floors

Raymond, when the 2005 figures come out?

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Post time 2006-2-11 04:35:37 |Display all floors
sacto11:

When I say Chinese sisters and brother, I'm not referring to you.  That's a general statement.   As usual, you cannot handle the facts and are reduced to opinions.  I'll just cut and paste my response from the other thread since it applies here too!   Get a clue!  All your opinions don't change the financial and economic realities.  Taiwan's leverage is decreasing daily.  You can do all the talking you want, but ultimately, the numbers speak for itself.   

Actually, you don’t even have your facts straight.  Taiwan is exporting upwards of 37% to China, and that reliance is growing, which means leverage is decreasing for Taiwan.  Convenience?  You are kidding yourself, guy!  The Taiwanese markets reacted quite negatively to even a hint of formal independence from ambiguous language during CSB’s New Year speech.  That should tell you how the Taiwan market itself feels about this issue.

Secondly, both Japan and China have huge currency reserves that are almost equal (check your facts).  Since Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is very bad, China remains the lone lender that has the liquidity to finance America.  China has enough financial leverage that it can move markets and interest rates.  If you are really in the US, then what I’m telling you is no surprise.  China only needed to slow down the new purchases of dollar denominated assets, and interest rates have gone up.  That is damaging to interest sensitive sectors of the US economy like real estate.  What part of China’s financial leverage do you not understand since we have already seen that leverage in action last summer?  Japan has its own financial problems with over a decade of a stagnate economy so don’t realistically look to Japan for help.      

Mainland China is not my government.  I’ve written my Plan for Peace here on this site, and I feel it is more realistic to find peace via unification (formal or practical) than it is via independence.  Unlike some war hawks and war profiteers, I’m not interested in seeing a war on the Straits as no Chinese wins.  I learn to discount the interlopers who claim their interest is a Democratic Taiwan, when their foreign policies are hypocritical around the world.  Whether you know it or not, Taiwan is just a pawn and is being used as a proxy to undermine the Mainland.

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Post time 2006-2-11 06:46:49 |Display all floors
sacto11:

As usual, you don't even have the facts.  Currency reserves for Japan and China are about equal.  Last quarter, China reached $820b, and Japan is at $847b.  Take out the currency swaps and it is about equal.  Even if you don't consider swaps, the difference isn't that much!  China may even surpass Japan this year and have the largest currency reserves in the world.  Go check the facts!   

I figured you were just a warmonger.  You cannot handle the facts, so you try to substitute your opinions and pass it off as a truism.  It's okay.  Your opinions do not change the facts.   Taiwan is relying more on China.  US is relying more on China's financing.  All your talk doesn't change that!   

The economic absorption of Taiwan is pretty much rendering this issue moot.  I really don't care what label people want to give it.  The practical reality is clear as the numbers speak for itself.  It's funny after all your talk, you still cannot deal with the numbers intelligently.   No surprise.  Just another amateur provocateur!   At least get the facts straight so you can debate this issue intelligently.

hanlei:

Sorry I missed your question until now.  I will post the 2005 numbers when they become available and let the numbers speak for itself.  Those are the GDP (PPP) numbers only.  Additional information like balance sheet and income statement numbers are also important because it gives a more realistic picture of the overall health of an economy.  Notice that some people will leave out the deficits and debts.   I wonder if their omission is by ignorance, or purposeful obfuscation?

[ Last edited by raymondusa at 2006-2-10 02:55 PM ]

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Post time 2006-2-11 10:48:51 |Display all floors

Ray grow up!

"I figured you were just a warmonger"

The fact that someone disagrees with you or produces another opinion does not give you
the right to name call and insult. It is time you act your age.

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Post time 2006-2-12 03:18:43 |Display all floors
fish:

I don't need you to tell me what to do.   Who do you think you are to tell me what to do?   Let me give you a clue!  You are too insignificant, yet because you are too blind to the facts, you somehow still think you have significance!   It is not me that needs to grow up since I'm one of the posters who actually look up the facts and share it.  It is you that need so much that it’s pitiful.  I must have hit a raw nerve since you went off tilt last time!   I figured you two are just warmongers.   

Sacto11’s credibility was gone the moment he asserted China and Thailand are exactly the same.   Hum…if they are exactly the same, why don’t US go to Thailand to get financing?  Why doesn’t Thailand have the same FDIs as China?  Why doesn’t Thailand have $820b in currency reserves?   Exactly the same?   His assertion is so outlandish that it’s easy to disprove.   

Lastly, if you don’t like the label I use, get out!  No one is forcing you to be here!  After 4000+ posting, you haven’t shown that you can grow beyond just being a hypocritical, myopic, partisan, uninformed, and unintelligent poster!   Before to ask someone else to grow, you better start on yourself first, since the irony is downright laughable.

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freeman has been deleted
Post time 2006-2-12 23:31:47 |Display all floors

so the irony is..

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