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Soros sees chance of economic recession in 2007 [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2006-1-10 09:54:39 |Display all floors
Billionaire investor George Soros said on Monday the U.S. Federal Reserve might overshoot in its bid to tighten monetary policy, deflating housing prices and tipping the economy into recession in 2007.

A collapse in U.S. housing prices could be associated with a dollar decline, scuppering the Fed's attempt to engineer a "soft-landing" for the economy, Soros told an audience at the Singapore Institute of International affairs.

Soros -- best known for his famous bet against sterling as Britain was forced to pull its currency out of the European currency grid in 1992 -- said he expected the federal funds rate, now at 4.25 percent, to peak at 4.75 percent.

Nevertheless, the Fed could be late in estimating when to stop raising rates, he said, creating a "reasonably significant chance" of a "hard-landing."

"If housing continues to cool while rates are slowing then it could turn into a hard landing," Soros said.

"That's why I expect a recession to happen in 2007, not 2006."

The Fed has raised its key rate at each of its policy meetings since June 2004, but has indicated the tightening cycle is close to peaking.

Although economies in Europe and Japan are recovering from slowdowns, they may not be in a position to counterbalance the impact of a U.S. recession, he said. Besides, Japan's economy could slow down if the Chinese economy slows.

"Europe is growing relatively well... but a hard landing in the U.S. will be associated with a decline in the dollar which would hurt the European economy," he said.

Soros said he believed the U.S. housing bubble, a major factor behind strong U.S. consumption, had reached its peak and was in the process of being deflated.

A way to tackle an ensuing global slowdown would be to stoke domestic demand in Asia and other developing regions, he said.

He suggested an International Monetary Fund proposal for richer countries to donate their Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to poorer countries would be a way to stimulate that demand.

GLOBAL RISKS

The 75-year-old investor turned philanthropist, said the world economy faced two other significant risks -- the U.S.-led war on terror and global warming.

He argued the war on terror that followed the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 and the war in Iraq had turned global opinion against the world's most powerful country.

"The biggest blunder was declaring war against terror. Today, most Americans realize that the Bush administration has led us astray," he said.

Soros said global warming threatened humankind and should be tackled by penalizing carbon emissions, instead of the current system of rewarding companies that reduce pollution.

"Our civilization is at stake," he said.

An advocate of freedom of information, Soros noted media power was being concentrated in fewer hands in the United States, Russia and China.

"I'm really concerned about China," he said.

As long as China's economy is booming, the lack of free discourse may not be a big issue, but once the economy starts to slow down and faces a crisis, free speech or a lack of it could make or break the country, he said.

"They should use the current period of prosperity to open up for greater freedom of speech and expression. There is no doubt in my mind that some kind of crisis will emerge."

"I see improvement in Malaysia since my friend left," he said, referring to former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad.

Soros was heavily criticized by Mahathir, who said the investor had bet against Asian currencies during the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, contributing to the subsequent economic meltdown.

[ Last edited by chinadaily at 2006-1-10 09:56 AM ]

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Post time 2006-1-11 08:47:38 |Display all floors

This is really a warning

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Post time 2006-1-11 16:46:53 |Display all floors

Reply #1 chinadaily's post

Another Democrats running down Republican!

And still sour over Dr M after so many years.
Can't let go.

Proposal for name change George Soros to George Sorrows!!!
Sorrows brought to hundred of millions including the British.
What's on your mind now........ooooooooooooooo la la....Kind Regards

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Post time 2006-1-13 08:13:38 |Display all floors

Gary North Denies the US is ALREADY in Deflation

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Post time 2006-1-13 08:16:30 |Display all floors

The UK Economy: A disaster of Titanic proportions

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Post time 2006-1-13 08:30:08 |Display all floors

Why Gold is rising

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Post time 2006-1-15 01:45:39 |Display all floors

interesting article about Soros

The ominous news:

"...this kind of behavior is called a 'speculative attack'... to use one's selling to deliberately cause prices to fall... the motive is... to cause people in the real world - not just other traders - to panic."

In other words, to sway the election. Luskin goes on, with an even more ominous conjecture:

"The classic example of a speculative attack is when George Soros massively shorted the British pound in September, 1992. The Bank of England was obliged to support the pound's exchange rate under the European Exchange Rate Mechanism... could Soros be behind the manipulation of the Tradesports Bush futures? The amounts of money involved are pocket change to Soros. And it would fit his avowed intention to unseat the President. It would be a cheap way for Soros to damage Bush's credibility and panic his troops. I have no idea whether Soros is behind this or not. But it would fit."

Ironies abound, it seems. In any case, the 'price' of a Bush future quickly rebounded to the mid 50's, where it's been for some time already. The (very) good news, as pointed out by Mr. Tabarrok:

"...manipulators subsidize information traders... by definition manipulators aren't trying to predict the true outcome so they are likely to take losses and the more they try to manipulate, the bigger the losses. Now if the manipulators are taking losses who is making money? The information traders! Manipulators, therefore, encourage and support the information traders. Manipulation isn't impossible but it's surprising how little information other trader's need to not only avoid the manipulation but to profit from it."

This raises a host of issues which I'll deal with in another post. But the bottom line it seems, is that prediction markets are proving as resilient to deliberate influence as theorists have long said they would be. My prediction: this will only accelerate their journey to mainstream awareness and adoption - in much the same manner as did the Policy Analysis Market debacle in the summer of 2003.

20 October 2004 at 09:18 AM in Current Affairs, Politics, Prediction Markets | Permalink "

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