Author: wchao37

Long-, short-, and medium-term prospects of a Ma Yinjeou administration [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2005-7-21 07:22:19 |Display all floors

Repost: Taidu's post-ASA descent from Cloud Nine

Any prospective Taiwan leader needs to be reminded of the ASA, and that includes Ma Yin-jeou, who had obstinately opposed its passage.


So the Anti-Secession Act went through the NPC without a hitch and the delegates had elected a new CMC head as if to benchmark its passage.

Pundits have come up with different assessments of the Act but none would disagree on its pivotal role in solving the problem of Taiduism head-on.

The bemusing effect of the legislation on the Taidus cannot be over-emphasized, and so these dregs of Chinese history have to stop their gloating momentarily and descend from Cloud Nine to face ground realities.

Although their first reaction was to willfully distort the preponderantly peaceful nature of the legislation and push for bigger demonstrations, these diehard miscreants must surely understand in their hearts that unless they hold their horses before the proverbial precipice, this can truly be likened to their last gasp for air before they sink to the bottom of the Taiwan Straits.

In other words, the Act truly reflects our compassionate feelings towards our non-Taidu Taiwan compatriots as well as our dispassionate analysis of every ponderable in the equation – including that of the possibility of military interference by the U.S. and Japan.

The crucial piece of information leaked to the international media was that the PLA has now gained a UNIQUELY powerful “sa sou jian” military capability which would render any interference in its quest for re-unification futile.

Since the longer we wait the more likely it is for the identity of this secret weapon to be exposed, my estimation is that the Taidus will not be given too much time to show their repentance and change of stance with regard to the issue of re-unification.

The only element hitherto lacking was a national consensus that would make war the inescapable outcome if all else fail to stop the Taidus from implementing their publicly-announced schedule for de jure independence.

That uncertainty has now been dispelled by the Act which gives credence both to the nation’s goodwill as well as to her ironwill, not only helping to blow the island’s political wind towards the mainland -- what with a rainbow spectrum of politicians scrambling one over another to make the ‘ice-breaking’ journey to Beijing -- but also affecting faraway Middle East politics by encouraging the Sharon government to turn over West Bank towns back to Palestinian rule ahead of schedule.

Predictably, a truly 'ice-breaking' journey cannot yet be made by out-of-office non-Taidu forces. Still, each and every one of these elements will have the welcome mat rolled out for him, and be treated with utmost sincerity by the mainland government.

Chen’s much-ballyhooed intent to declare de jure independence before the 2008 Olympic Games are held in Beijing was meant to create a bandwagon atmosphere on the island in order to facilitate their prospects for continued rule over the island, and to iron out the ‘wrinkles’ encountered in the 610.8 billion (now reduced to 480 billion) NTB arms purchase deal with the Pentagon.

With Beijing’s unswerving determination to fulfill her historical duty comes the inevitable realization that the only thing left for the Taidus to do now is to ape their Hongkong counterpart -- the ‘Democratic Party’ -- in following the American meddlers’ lead in holding massive demonstrations.

To be sure, such demonstrations had toppled governments everywhere from Georgia to Ukraine, but the Taidus should take it to heart that they had also utterly failed to achieve their purpose even when SARS was wreaking havoc in the HKSAR and many personal portfolios were adversely affected by the downturn in the real estate market.

CEPA has by now effectively demonstrated the positive benefits of the 1c2s Model, and Taiwan’s economy has inextricably intertwined with and complemented that of the mainland as exemplified by the recent agreement for same-day-delivery of Taiwan’s citrus fruits and other produce to Mainland markets.

Therefore, pushing for these prospective Taidu demonstrations is about as effective as providing Nike sneakers for below-knee amputees – an exercise of utter futility.

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Post time 2005-7-21 10:12:34 |Display all floors

A timely reminder to any prospective Taiwan leader

Monday March 14, 2005


The following is the full text of the Anti-Secession Law, as adopted at the Third Session of the Tenth National People's Congress on March 14, 2005:

Article 1 This Law is formulated, in accordance with the Constitution, for the purpose of opposing and checking Taiwan's secession from China by secessionists in the name of "Taiwan independence", promoting peaceful national reunification, maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits, preserving China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and safeguarding the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation.

Article 2 There is only one China in the world. Both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. China's sovereignty and territorial integrity brook no division. Safeguarding China's sovereignty and territorial integrity is the common obligation of all Chinese people, the Taiwan compatriots included.

Taiwan is part of China. The state shall never allow the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces to make Taiwan secede from China under any name or by any means.

Article 3 The Taiwan question is one that is left over from China's civil war of the late 1940s.

Solving the Taiwan question and achieving national reunification is China's internal affair, which subjects to no interference by any outside forces.

Article 4 Accomplishing the great task of reunifying the motherland is the sacred duty of all Chinese people, the Taiwan compatriots included.

Article 5 Upholding the principle of one China is the basis of peaceful reunification of the country.

To reunify the country through peaceful means best serves the fundamental interests of the compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits. The state shall do its utmost with maximum sincerity to achieve a peaceful reunification.

After the country is reunified peacefully, Taiwan may practice systems different from those on the mainland and enjoy a high degree of autonomy.

Article 6 The state shall take the following measures to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits and promote cross-Straits relations:

to encourage and facilitate personnel exchanges across the Straits for greater mutual understanding and mutual trust;
to encourage and facilitate economic exchanges and cooperation, realize direct links of trade, mail and air and shipping services, and bring about closer economic ties between the two sides of the Straits to their mutual benefit;
to encourage and facilitate cross-Straits exchanges in education, science, technology, culture, health and sports, and work together to carry forward the proud Chinese cultural traditions;
to encourage and facilitate cross-Straits cooperation in combating crimes; and
to encourage and facilitate other activities that are conducive to peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits and stronger cross-Straits relations.
The state protects the rights and interests of the Taiwan compatriots in accordance with law.

Article 7 The state stands for the achievement of peaceful reunification through consultations and negotiations on an equal footing between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits. These consultations and negotiations may be conducted in steps and phases and with flexible and varied modalities.

The two sides of the Taiwan Straits may consult and negotiate on the following matters:

officially ending the state of hostility between the two sides;
mapping out the development of cross-Straits relations;
steps and arrangements for peaceful national reunification;
the political status of the Taiwan authorities;
the Taiwan region's room of international operation that iscompatible with its status; and
other matters concerning the achievement of peaceful national reunification.
Article 8 In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, orthat possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The State Council and the Central Military Commission shall decide on and execute the non-peaceful means and other necessary measures as provided for in the preceding paragraph and shall promptly report to the Standing Committee of the National People'sCongress.

Article 9 In the event of employing and executing non-peaceful means and other necessary measures as provided for in this Law, the state shall exert its utmost to protect the lives, property and other legitimate rights and interests of Taiwan civilians and foreign nationals in Taiwan, and to minimize losses. At the same time, the state shall protect the rights and interests of the Taiwan compatriots in other parts of China in accordance with law.

Article 10 This Law shall come into force on the day of its promulgation.

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Post time 2005-7-21 10:53:19 |Display all floors long

You have be nice and quiet and it has been great. Now it seems the dam has broken. You just could not hold back.

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Post time 2005-7-21 13:23:36 |Display all floors

Sicko....too fat.....poor Ted C. Fishman

I know why you are here..... remind me to send a charity check to your Transvestites' Congregation -- THE home for all castrated Chicago brokers.

btw, have you received my attorney's letter yet?

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Post time 2005-7-22 03:37:33 |Display all floors

Brewing troubles already evident -- "不应该在大街上骂人,结果事后却在小巷子里面

王金平铁心作"义工" 拒绝担任国民党第一副主席

  人民网台北7月21电  据“中央社”报道,中国国民党昨天召开党主席选后第一次中常会,这是国民党主席选后首次“王马会”。对于马英九当面邀请他担任下届国民党副主席,王金平明确表示“不要考量到我”。




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Post time 2005-7-22 05:18:46 |Display all floors

Calling a spade a spade by asking pertinent questions of Ma Yin-jeou....

There are those who read this article and thought I was "too harsh on Ma."

I opine that due to re-unification considerations, it is the duty of our generation to point out all the sharp protrusions on the banks of the icy river gorge so that Mainlanders will not sustain serious injuries while negotiating the twists and turns in paddling down the treacherous white waters of re-unification talks..

FYI, this article was not written to support Lien and Wang against Ma -- as someone in the inner forums seemed to be intimating.

In fact, was the first in expressing the hope that Ma Yin-jeou would be able to become a Chinese folk hero by re-adjusting his openly defiant stand against the ASA.

Here we are simply making an analysis taking into account the possible obstacles ahead of us during prospective cross-strait negotiations.

Problems are there to be confronted and solved, not ignored and brushed under the carpet.

That would have been adopting an ostrich mentality thumbing noses at the righteous stand espoused in the articles of the ASA that was passed by the NPC on 3-14-05.

Pointing out Mr. Ma's faux pas here is not tantamount to denouncing him. Quite contrariwise, we are here fervently hoping that he does not rock the boat again with his maverick political stand impossible for the mainland to countenance.

In fact, if you look closely at the post, it was suggested that his shortcomings be GLOSSED OVER.

This does not mean we should turn a blind eye to his gross errors which are non-conducive to the cause of re-unification. It only means we care enough about the issue to alert him at this stage of the political process.

There are many reasons why Lien, Soong, and Wang do not see eye-to-eye with Mr. Ma and the conflict is not simply symptomatic of internecine squabbles.

There are potential dangers in placing an inordinate amount of faith on Mr. Ma as if he is going to lead Taiwan back to the embrace of the motherland as soon as he assumes power.

The reality of China's rapid economic growth and dependence on maritime routes for raw materials dictates that she needs to break out of the First Island Chain in the near future -- and hence the urgency that Taiwan not be allowed to delay re-unification talks.

Judging from Ma's obstinate opposition to the ASA, it is difficult to imagine that he would be as cooperative as any of the Lien-Soong-Yok trio with the Beijing government for the reasons I had enumerated in the post.

I am looking at the problem purely from the standpoint on whether Ma's prospective administration would help or hinder the progress of re-unification.

No one pays serious attention to Chen these days, and so he is really out of the equation as of this moment.

Still, it cannot be ruled out that just before 2008, Chen may suddenly announce that he is going to Beijing for talks based on the 1992 Consensus.

It would be as much an anticlimax as Nixon's going to China except that the man is an untrustworthy chameleon. Even so, by so doing Chen would have stolen the thunder from under the Pan Blue camp just before the election.

Ma is a force to be reckoned with, but that makes any obstinate resistance from him to the cause of re-unification all the more unpredictable and perilous.

Right now he is saying that he would follow through with Lien's Five-Point Vistas in cross-strait rapprochement and that he would accept the 1992 Consensus as the basis for cross-strait talks.

The unspoken fear in many quarters these days is that if he does become Taiwan's leader in 2008 -- as is likely to be the case -- he will revert back to his poor judgmental habits exemplified by his stand on the felongoon and ASA issues.

In the least, I don't think he has the forcefulness of character to uproot Taidu forces from the island.

As I said, there are only Hanjian and non-Hanjian forces on the Island. There is no such thing as a multi-party political habitat on the Island.

This type of Hanjian forces masquerading as "American-style democratic party" was what the U.S. had been aiding and abetting to be established on the mainland all along, and the Chinese government had been entirely correct in nipping these so-called dissidents in the bud.  

Just look at Taiwan's DPP today and you would understand why it is necessary to keep an eye on these good-for-nothing vagabonds who are good at forming opposition parties but once in power, will sell the nation out in no time.

That's also why one always hears about certain U.S. 'senators' (read thugs) expressing his/her 'concern' over the incarceration of this and that dissident. They are not interested in the personal fates of these individuals or the good of the Chinese nation, but they are mightily interested in their potential trouble-making capabilities in throwing  monkey's wrenches into the control room of the Chinese economic juggernaut.

Would these 'senators' have tolerated political subterfuge of their own 'dissidents' who advocate the overthrow of their own government on the pretext that it is their democratic right to register a party to that end?

Not a chance.

The reality is that even a little deviance from mainstream orthodoxy -- which is in fact the dominant rule of the military-industrial complex in Washington D.C. -- as advocated by old Lyndon LaRouche (not the new, mellowed version of him) -- was dealt with by long prison terms meted out to his major assistants to the tune of 77 years (later pardoned by Clinton in 1996) during the 1980's.

Where else in the world do you see even one POLITICAL PARTY rooting to change its national constitution and go the independence route without fear of being tried for treason?

Only in Taiwan -- which goes to show that on that island international power politics is at play, and that the TUP and DPP are quintessential motley organizations of Hanjian thugs, not political parties.

In any other country, leaders of the two independence-advocating organizations would have been summoned before the Highest Court to answer to the charge of treason, let alone be allowed to register as political parties.

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Post time 2005-7-23 12:32:25 |Display all floors

Exchange #1 on the main topic

Poster A said:

I have to disagree with the viewpoint that some one not born or raised in China has tenuous ties with Chinese culture and China herself.

I was born in war-torn China in 42 and left in 48. I lived in HK until I came to US for college and then graduate school. Even I have lived in US for a long long time and my ties are all here, the pull of China is still as strong as the steel coils.

If Mr. Ma has tenuous ties with China, more efforts should be made on the Chinese part to show him why he should value the ties with his ancestry land instead of prejudging him that he will adhere his western ideals more than his native ones.

I do not think it is constructive to criticise his personal style in regard to his demeanor to his daughters. There is always a personal touch in all relationships. We can't make generalizations about how all Chinese or Americans handle their personal relationships.

China should welcome Chairman Ma and show him China's genuine concern, care and family-like good will towards him and Taiwanese people.

Nickpicking is not constructive and should not be allowed.


My response to Poster A:

I don't think you have the right to decide what is nickpicking and what is not.

Here I sense that you yourself are nickpicking on the one point I mentioned about his relations with his daughters and ignoring the rest.

The fact that a naturalized citizen of a country like the United States cannot aspire to become its president irrespective of the rest of his qualifications shows that where one is born has a lot to do with his primary allegiance -- at least in many people's minds.

You yourself are telling us here that you were born in China and left when you were six years old.

The emotional attachment to America as a result of your own long stay there after spending your formative years in Hongkong was not sufficiently strong to neutralize the pull that China or her culture has continued to exert on you.

By your own admission, such a pull is still "as strong as steel coils."

So your own statement here has vindicated point #1 in my analysis.

Ma is not just anybody. He is now the KMT's party chairman, and as such he has a clear shot at the top position in the next 'presidential' election on the Island in 2008.

You can be assured that he will be profiled and every little anecdotal detail about him will be analyzed by every intelligence agency which is peripherally interested in getting a handle on how this man might react during a cross-strait crisis in the future.

Viewed in this light, my ten points can at best only be part of an initial probe on Mr. Ma.

If at this stage of the game you are already getting impatient with a few minor probes I can assure you that you have seen nothing yet.

Yes, let me repeat: every little bit of his personal information will be analyzed and stored in a database, but then of course it is not the purpose of my post to expand on this point.

Understandably, China will and should give a red-carpet treatment and warm welcome to any party leader -- including of course Mr. Ma the new Chairman of the KMT -- who has agreed to adopt the 1992 Consensus as the basis for discussions.

I suggest you take a look at the column piece entitled "Optimistic caution amidst euphoria" which was showcased here a while back in order to understand the context in which this post was written and to gain a fuller measure of the intended message.

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