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wchao37 Post time: 2019-6-13 00:16
So Trump is threatening for Xi to meet him in Tokyo at the G20 summit.
The last time they met in Ar ...
Trump seeks an agreement yet threatens more tariffs if there is no meeting to discuss terms.
The very fact he has made a direct threat even before the meeting is convened clearly shows he intends to bully his way through without even hearing first what the other party has yet to say.
How then can any such meeting be constructive?
Secondly, he disagreed with his Lighthizer who said it should be a memorandum of understanding. Trump said it must be an agreement.
But he forgets that any bilateral agreement as a treaty has to be reviewed by his own US Congress and will be passed only if a two-thirds majority in votes is achieved by the Senate.
And if the bilateral agreement is not codified as a treaty but as an executive-congressional agreement, it will have to be separately voted as a statute in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Whichever the method, US congressional changes to the terms can be made after the document is signed and US congressmen may not even want to vote unless they see the tariffs from the other side are removed first.
But if that be so, would the other side want to remove the tariffs if the agreement is not yet ratified by the US side?
Furthermore, one must note the Republicans only control 53 out of the 100 Senate seats and so will not achieve two-thirds majority even if all of them vote aye so the treaty method is sunk.
Additionally, the Democrats control the House of Representatives and hence will more likely vote against Trump's republican agreement.
In short, Trump has no practicable locus standi to shovel any agreement through.
There is another complication. When he flies into Tokyo for the G20 Summit, he may be thinking he has successfully leveraged his tariffs on Mexico over the heads of both his republicans and the democrat opposition.
But does he really have an agreement even when he can hold up a piece of paper?
Mexico has proposed otherwise for a safe-third-region instead of agreeing to be a safe-third-country for refugees. Would Brazil agree to be a member of that region, meaning it will have to accept refugees from Guatemala and Honduras? Is Mexico itself able and willing to absorb thousands of foreigners whose only intended destination is his USA?
Therefore any semblance of his 'agreement' will at best just be a temporary display of coralling. His immigrant problem will remain beyond 2020.
Trump must realize he can't win any deal when the whole world knows he was the one who created the problems. In the case of Mexico, by withdrawing aid for the refugee countries. In the case of China, by throwing tariffs and technology tantrums. Now that the US techs like Apple and Verizon are facing artificial challenges caused by his tariffs and sanctions, how is he going to wriggle his way out on the world stage?
Lastly, does his Trish Regan and US hawks know Nato's cyberdefense body (CCDCOE) has concluded "there is no public evidence of serious technological vulnerabilities in specific Huawei or ZTE equipment and n that regard, Chinese technology is no different from technology produced elsewhere."?
Incidentally, there is a Prof Mark Wu as trade specialist at Harvard (https://today.law.harvard.edu/mark-wu-appointed-professor-of-law/).