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Trump's current bravura is because he thinks the US economy is booming and unemployment is low.
Yet in recent surveys 51% said they will have to dive into their savings for their basic necessities if they miss even one paycheck, four out of 10 don't have USD400-500 for any emergency, and if faced with a sudden income disruption, 43% would terminate their regular savings, 28% would stop their retirement contributions, 73% would cut off non-essential expenditures and 31% would skip purchase of even essentials if they miss two paychecks. Moreover, 47% admitted they would turn to credit cards if they don't have savings for essentials with 17% willing to go into debts on 400-800% interest rates by taking quick short term loans.
In other words, the majority lower income groups in the US live paycheck-to-paycheck and any disruption to their income stream will put them immediately into financial hardship and exposure to debts that will quickly accumulate from their having to take fast loans to pay for even essentials, rents, utility bills and mortgages.
As Potus, he must surely realize this and what will happen to them when the additional USD800/household in prices increases kick in when his new 25% tariffs take effect.
But even the economists who derived that sum could have been conservative. They could have omitted the multiplier effect that comes about when an item courses from wholesaler to dealer to sub-dealer to retailer to customer. At each step, not only will additional transport add up to more than the original two end-points of contact but each sub-supplier will want to retain his own profit margin.
This is where the multiplier effect can take place. If they each sees risks to their individual level of business from the tariffs, they will hedge in more profit margin for themselves to cover turnover downturns from higher prices. So the price from wholesaler to dealer will be magnified beyond the tariff addition. Next the price from dealer to sub-dealer will also magnify by another margin but that margin will be on the inflated price quoted by the wholesaler. And so on.
By the time the item reaches the consumer, it will be multiplily overpriced beyond the tariff increase at the docks. That USD800/household increase caused by Trump's 25% tariff may soon balloon to USD1,200/household whose effect will be devastating on the millions of American households already living at the edge of financial hardships.
Did Bannon, Navarro, Pillsbury, Ross, Rubio, Schumer know all that? Are Lighthizer, Mnuchin et al aware that they didn't? So if they didn't, would he who only tweets know as well? And if he didn't, what the heck have they all been doing raising tariffs that will hurt the very Americans they said they care about? Besides the millions of parts producers and product assemblers, raw material suppliers and transporters all over the world.
Most businesses anywhere thrive and mom-and-pop shops survive only on low margins; not everyone wants to be a real estate man making (and losing) millions out of others. Tariffs artificially magnify prices, many for parts that go into machineries that make essentials. If prices of even essentials are raised by such artificial taxations, an inflationary bubble will build with dire consequences for stabilization of monetary policies which in turn will affect investments and global trade. Besides sinking thousands of poor households when they had been able to coast by more comfortably without tariffs. Furthermore, disrupting global supply chains is more than a pain in the ass; it's a kick on everyone's chin. There will be no short-term pain for long-term gain; it'll only be admitting for a toothache but exiting after a major surgery.
Yet Trump may think he has the scepter of being right just on account of a soporific feeling for American workers. But they are a segment of the whole population of consumers. If half the entire American household population suffer when they needn't, would adding another USD5-15/hour to the wages of the thousands of American workers ameliorate the situation especially when any increase in wages will be eaten up by tariff inflation?
It seems the old saying that the pen is mightier than the sword has been replaced by the new saying that the tweet is mightier than the pen. But the source of that new saying could very well have emanated from the assembly of twits only.