Author: knox1234

Will there be a breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2019-2-5 16:35:19 |Display all floors
cnn70 Post time: 2019-2-4 13:40
many state owned enterprises are in fact dead in terms of their profitability, yet they still rece ...

Again, this is a rather shallow understanding of the role of state enterprises in China these days.

SOEs have been making great strides in the Chinese economy in recent years.  In a socialist country as big as China, certain industries have to be publicly owned in order to ensure social stability.  

None of the former socialist countries in Russia or other Eastern Europe nations constituting the New Europe did well when privatization was in full force in those countries.  In the first few years of the subprime crisis of 2008, all those countries experienced a downturn in their GDP varying from 15% to 35% -- which couldn't have occurred if their private sectors hadn't grown so fast.  This is not to say that the private sector is bad, but if the entire national economy is dependent solely on the private sector, you are walking with one leg on slippery ground.

American business tycoon Warren Buffett once said that the thing that impressed him most in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis was that all private companies are like dominoes -- when one falls every other one is adversely affected to a greater or lesser extent.

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Post time 2019-2-5 17:09:49 |Display all floors
cnn70 Post time: 2019-2-4 13:57
the Washington establishment, the Democrats , big corporations and wall street, are not friends of ...

When you enter into any discussion, please be prepared to support your conclusions with arguments based on facts and not conjecture -- which you are doing here.

So-called Chinese model has run out of power as china's economy steadily slows down.


The downward economic pressure in the fourth quarter of last year is due to governmental macro-economic re-structuring of the supply side of the national economy.  Many countries could only talk about re-structuring, but so far China has been able to do it in practice.  

Fiscal policy changed when the government reduced the supply side by cutting down on production capacity and oprtimizing debt/credit ratio to ensure that ROI of private enterprises.

The overall picture of the Chinese remains robust.

It was estimated at the recent Davos Economic Forum that China will become a high-income country by 2025 and the world's largest economy by 2030.  The economist's name was Justine Yifu Lin, former senior vice president and chief economist at the World Bank.

What's more, at "The Economics of China's New Era," an event hosted by the Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Lin said also that "even after 40 years of extraordinary growth, China still has a huge potential for dynamic economic growth."  Lin happens to be a highly-regarded economist who originally hailed from the opposite side of the Taiwan Strait.

To be more precise for your information, let me assure you that Lin attributed his optimism mainly to the fact that China's per capita GDP in 2008 was 21 percent of that of the United States, the same ratio held by Japan in 1951, Singapore in 1967, and Taiwan in 1975 and South Korea in 1977.

All of the above economies then grew by 8-9 percent per year for another 20 years. That's why he surmised that China has accordingly the growth potential of 8 percent in the future 10 years.

to be sure, it is inevitable that external challenges such as U.S. protectionism and trade conflicts would reduce the country's growth prospects -- but only temporarily.  The sheer size of China's economy, plus the fact that it is still very much a medium-income country, would mean that both China's construction and infrastructural improvements will render it open for investments.

Also for your information, please note that even in the 'new' era, there is something that will continue from the past: the country will continue to deepen the reform -- which will never stop in China's structural transformation.

You might also have noticed that just earlier today, the chairman of the Davos Economic Forum paid homage to the Chinese people in Mandarin for their nation's contribution to the world economy -- responsible for generating more than a third of the global growth in the ten years after the economic downturn in 2008, and he sees that China will continue to be a significant global player in the next decade.

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Post time 2019-2-5 17:10:27 |Display all floors
This post was edited by wchao37 at 2019-2-6 03:08

Enjoy.

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Post time 2019-2-6 03:09:02 |Display all floors

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Post time 2019-2-6 22:49:28 |Display all floors
Yes we are enjoying!

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Post time 2019-2-7 06:32:21 |Display all floors
cnn70 Post time: 2019-2-5 21:48
Lin is a well-known government sponsored "economist" who is in fact a bootlicker and semi-retarded ...

Your soul cannot be saved.  It is overdue for a total overhaul at the turn of the century, and by now it is as dead as a puff of wind.

Your 'concerns' are obsolescent and apparently you haven't been following up on the latest events.  It is not my job to bring you up to date on the growth prospects of any country.  Do your own homework and hopefully you'll come to see the light of day.

Laughing at Lin, as you are prone to do here, simply illustrates your own ignorance, for he was chosen to be the spokesperson by the World Bank and again at Davos because of his macroeconomic  expertise.

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Post time 2019-2-10 02:52:53 |Display all floors
This post was edited by wchao37 at 2019-2-10 04:04

IP protection is just a smokescreen to exact a promise of structural changes from China -- in Sun Zi's Art of the War, it was called "making a feint in the east while striking in the west."

So let's examine the likely results all these trade talk negotiations will yield.

The Chinese have a saying, "It is easier to move mountains than to change a person's character."

No one believes that "no tariff" is the end-game of Donald Trump unless he/she is afflicted with pre-senile dementia and doesn't remember how many written agreements the untrustworthy man has already fed into his paper-shredder, let alone the oral ones.

It is easy to see why.

Nothing solid except a vague promise of "no new tariff" had come out of the last round of Sino-U.S. trade discussions at the G20 meeting, and the last trade talk meeting in Washington revealed nothing new.

If his past record is any guide, the U.S. president can instantaneously end any consensus reached during the meeting.  Our Chinese side had already made the general promise that we'll buy more American goods to reduce the so-called trade imbalance, without any corresponding return promise from the Americans that they would open up their high-tech export market of things we NEED to purchase.

So that means we're on notice to buy Maine lobsters for every boy and girl at CD BBS at least once a week.

Just remember the history of their total genocidal war against Native Americans -- our genetic brothers and sisters -- after the Lewis-Clark expeditions had made them choose eternal westward expansion as their Manifest Destiny.  This aim will never change as long as they are our fellow passengers on Planet Earth.

Just remember U.S. Vice President Pence's anti-China rhetoric during the OPEC meeting which occurred a few months ago in 2018 -- a meeting ending on such a discordant note that for the first time in OPEC's history no consensual statement was issued thereafter.

Just remember how Trump had started the Trade War unilaterally against China immediately after he had ascertained that we had helped him coerce Kim, the North Korean leader, into the Singapore Meeting and unilateral disarmament. In his mind, making one deal is just his stepping stone to making another deal, and as a businessman he had no intention to keep any of his post-negotiation promises on either deal.

This time in his State of the Union address on February 5 he was again talking about his impending meeting with Kim -- on February 27 in Vietnam  -- while dispensing the hope about withdrawing all bilateral tariffs in the foreseeable future.

What's to come after the meeting with Kim?

Upon implementation of a third of the promises Trump made during the meeting -- including the withdrawal of ALL tariffs between the two nations and the observance of the Three Communiques regarding the issue of Taiwan, the Sun will rise from the west sometime next month.

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