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Can Abe repair bilateral relations with China in 2017? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2016-12-23 12:53:47 |Display all floors
In 2016, the Shinzo Abe administration has achieved much in its diplomacy. In May this year, Japan hosted the 2016 G7 Summit in Ise-Shima, after which US President Barack Obama made a historic visit to Hiroshima. On the back of these two diplomatic achievements, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a Senate election, meaning that representatives who are keen to revise the constitution occupy two-thirds of the seats in the House of Councillors and House of Representatives.

Besides, after high-level visits from countries such as India and Russia to Japan, Abe's public support is riding at around 50 percent. He is now the country's fourth longest-serving Japanese leader of the postwar era. Given the stability of the Abe regime and his public support, Japan's political situation claims our attention.

Whether Abe will dissolve the lower house is most worthy of attention. According to Japan's constitution, the prime minister is elected by congress, and the final result will be determined by the lower house if inconsistent results occur in the two houses. The current term of the lower house will end in 2018.

Meanwhile, the LDP voted to extend the term limits for the party's presidency from six years over two terms to nine years over three. Abe's term as party leader will end by September 2018, but the way is open for him to win a third term. Therefore, if Abe dissolves the lower house next year, the ruling party will be able to beat all opposition parties, obtain an absolute majority of seats and ensure the extension of Abe's term of office to 2021.

Since the LDP has a majority of seats in congress, it is worth noting whether Abe will launch an agenda to revise the constitution in 2017.  

In August, Japanese Emperor Akihito expressed his desire to abdicate the throne during his lifetime in a television address. Focusing on this issue, an advisory panel organized by the Japanese government has discussed this several times, and will finalize its recommendations by mid-January next year.

In view of Akihito's special status and influence in Japan, the special bill for the emperor's "abdication" is expected to be the main focus during the ordinary session of the National Diet from late January to June, and will take up a lot of time.

During the session, the Japanese government's budget proposals will also be reviewed. So launching the constitutional revision agenda will be difficult in the first half of the year, which may begin after the passage of the bill related to the emperor.

Once the agenda starts, it will definitely affect Abe's cabinet and the LDP's public support, and exert negative impacts on peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, it is possible that Abe will open the agenda after dissolving the lower house.

In foreign affairs, Japan-US relations during the Donald Trump administration deserve attention. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump showed a friendlier attitude toward Russia. It is expected that US-Russian relations will improve in the future.

Although Trump has provoked China on Twitter several times, it may be just a means to pave the way for negotiations for future Sino-US relations. As a businessman-turned president, Trump's future policy toward China will focus more on pragmatism than on ideology. As a result, US-Russian and Sino-US relations will be improved and deepened, reducing Japan's importance for the US.

In addition to Japan-US relations, Sino-Japanese relations will also be an important point for the Abe administration in 2017, as next year sees the 45th anniversary of the normalization of China-Japan diplomatic ties. On November 30, foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang, in a regular press conference, said that China attached great importance to Sino-Japanese-South Korean cooperation and the Chinese side is willing to work alongside Japan and South Korea. This shows that Sino-Japanese relations have rebounded. Therefore, during the upcoming 45th anniversary, whether Abe can actively repair bilateral relations will draw great attention from the people of the two countries.


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Post time 2016-12-23 17:13:36 |Display all floors
ANY RAPPROCHEMENT BETWEEN JAPAN AND CHINA CAN AND WILL BE EASILY DERAILED BY ANY PROVOCATION ENGINEERED BY JAPANESE AND WESTERN RIGHT-WINGERS, MANY OF WHOM BELONG TO ABE'S PARTY AND ARE IN IMPORTANT GOVERNMENT POSTS.  AND THUS, THE WARMING OF SINO-JAPANESE RELATIONS WILL ALWAYS BE OVERSHADOWED BY DIAOYUDAO.  CHINA SHOULD NOT ENGAGE IN WISHFUL THINKING, OR IT WILL BE GREATLY DISAPPOINTED.

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Post time 2016-12-24 10:44:27 |Display all floors
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Post time 2016-12-25 08:12:13 |Display all floors
Buy more Made in China.

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Post time 2016-12-25 08:13:08 |Display all floors
He can invite Abe Lincoln !
Round Up is good for developing the mind

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Post time 2016-12-26 10:46:23 |Display all floors
foreignchinese Post time: 2016-12-25 08:12
Buy more Made in China.

Business are leaving china

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Post time 2016-12-26 13:09:58 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abcfirst at 2016-12-26 16:42

Twitting in spurts of 140 characters cannot define the context of the question, or of the answer to it, and therefore runs a significant risk of both being taken and acted on out of context, which creates uncertainty, insecurity, and an increasing reliance on military force to achieve security and peace.  The risk premium for political statements has just jumped to double digits.  Programs based on past understandings become the equivalent of inadequately collateralized mortgages, and will be heavily discounted.  Owners would want to disinvest themselves of such assets.  Peace based on past understandings will unravel at the speed of a twit, and will have to be secured anew by military threat or action.  As the stakes rise to the heavens, the international order faces a systemic risk of widespread and profound collapse, that can only be restored by rights of conquest.  Twitter should therefore be banned for all public officials, in matters of public interest.

In the manner of argument by reductio ad absurdum, imagine a world where public officials, including those at the highest level of government, are accustomed to communicating in twits that are only FOUR characters long.  It won't take but a week for the world to be at war on a global scale.  140 characters may stretch it out to half a year, at most.


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