Author: dragon8

Brexit 23 June 2016 [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2016-5-16 22:26:45 |Display all floors


PART 3  <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Britain should leave, says Charlie Morris.

By: Charlie Morris
26 NOV 2015.





The economic impact if we leave

As far as the short-term impact goes, it seems likely the pound might suffer in the run-up to a referendum and in the aftermath of any decision to leave the EU. The initial impact would be to raise the cost base of the economy (the price of imports would go up). There would also be concerns that, until new treaties had been agreed with our EU trading partners, our exports to the EU would dwindle and our external deficit would widen further.
Chart of the pound vs the dollar

This combination of the government budget being in structural deficit, combined with the likelihood of a larger current-account deficit, could weigh upon sterling, and indeed gilts (UK government bonds). And the government would bear additional costs to build the new institutional infrastructure that it would require outside the EU. However, these are very much short-term impacts (and chances are that plenty of other, potentially bigger influences – such as the direction of monetary policy – will be affecting sterling as well).

As far as the property market goes, Brexit in itself is unlikely to have a huge effect one way or the other. If the pound fell following Brexit, foreign investors might find that attractive. But otherwise the outlook for property will also be shaped more by domestic factors, including interest rates, and supply and demand. On that point, it’s worth noting that, according to the UK Investment Property Databank (IPD) index, pan-UK commercial yields are at similar levels to 1989 or 2007 – both occasions which occured ahead of significant market corrections.

What about stocks? In the short term, Brexit could see the FTSE 100 diverge from the FTSE 250 because large companies will not be significantly impacted one way or another – they reap global profits and any interruption should be relatively minor. The FTSE 100 also tends to rise when the pound falls (all other factors being equal). So not a bad place to hide temporarily. Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 mid-caps are already trading at a premium to large caps. They also tend to reflect the domestic situation more accurately. That said, however, in the longer run, a more entrepreneurial, less bureaucratic British economy should be good news for smaller, domestically focused companies – so after the period of uncertainty is over, solid British companies should make good investments.

The reality, as Vicky Redwood of Capital Economics says, is that both the purported gains and losses from Brexit are overstated. The economic analysis group, founded by eurosceptic Roger Bootle, says that the actual economic impact is hard to quantify, given the wide range of potential outcomes. But it reckons thateven if the EU imposed tariffs on UK exports, “this 4% cost would be fairly easily absorbed”, while any hit to EU trade would be offset “over the long-term by the extra opportunities to boost trade with emerging economies”.

There’s also the £10bn-odd in savings that the UK would make on its contributions to the EU, which provides a small shock absorber, though as Redwood says, “this could easily be wiped out if Brexit had even a minor adverse impact”. (Although if Brexit boosted the economy, then the savings for the Treasury would be even bigger.) Whatever the case may be, it’s not the short-run impact that should decide. It’s that, in the long run, we don’t want to be tied to a sclerotic, centralising bureaucracy. We’re better off on our own.




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Post time 2016-5-16 22:38:54 |Display all floors
Farage provokes Hollande to admit Brexit is logical




07 Oct 2015.




UKIP leader Nigel Farage provoked French President Hollande to admit in a debate in the European Parliament, Strasbourg today that Brexit was a logical choice.

Speaking in the presence of Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, the UKIP leader said that we are living in a German dominated Europe which is causing resentment and division. After badly mishandling the migrant crisis, Europe was not an area of peace but of disharmony.


Nigel Farage said: "there is a bright star on the horizon. It's called the British referendum and given that none of you want to concede Britain the ability to take back control of her own borders a Brexit now looks more likely than at any point in modern time."

President Hollande responded: "We've been going through this for years. If we don't want to strengthen Europe, then there's only one road and I heard what Mr Farage said that the only road is for those who are not convinced of Europe is to leave Europe.

There is no other way. It's a horrible path, but it's a logical path. Leave Europe, leave Schengen and leave democracy. If you can because do you really want to participate in a common state, that's the question."

Read Nigel Farage's speech in full below:

Thank you.

Nobody in their right minds would not agree that it was a sensible thing to do to get France and Germany together, round the table, to break bread with each other, to have a trade deal with each other back in the 1950's and to work as sovereign, democratic, nations together for peace. All of that was absolutely right and high minded.

Sadly, the whole thing has become corrupted. Tony Blair said, "the EU today is no longer about peace, it is about power" and how right he was and how that power has shifted. When Kohl and Mitterand came here, representing their countries 25 years ago it was a partnership of equals but no longer. France is now severely diminished, trapped inside a currency from which frankly she can't recover and the French voice in this relationship and in Europe is little more now frankly than a pipsqueak.

It's an irony isn't it, that the project that was designed to contain German power has now given us a totally German-dominated Europe. Just look at the euro, Germany has a currency that is undervalued by twenty percent, a growing and massive trade surplus and most growth in the German economy since the collapse of 2008 has indeed been in exports to other Eurozone countries such as your very big arm sales to countries like Greece.

And when we have a General Election that says a country like Greece wants to change direction, well I'm sorry but that now must be brushed aside because the Germans don't want it. And in what must count as perhaps the worst piece of public policy seen in modern Europe for half a century, when you compounded the already failed and flawed EU Common Asylum Policy by saying to the whole world please come to Europe, and we saw frankly, virtually a stampede and we learnt that eighty percent of those that are coming are not Syrian refugees, in fact what you've done is to open the door to young, male, economic migrants. Many of whom I have to say behave in a rather aggressive manner, quite the opposite to what you would ever expect to see from any refugee, and yet when that failure is met by objections from countries like Hungary their opinions are crushed.

This isn't a Europe of peace, it's a Europe of division, it's a Europe of disharmony, it's a Europe that is a recipe for resentment. And yet faced with all this failure, both of you said the same thing today. You said Europe isn't working so we must have more Europe. More of the same failing, well there is I think a bright star on the horizon. It's called the British referendum and given that none of you want to concede Britain the ability to take back control of her own borders a Brexit now looks more likely than at any point in modern time and I hope and pray that Britain voting to leave the European Union will be the beginning of the end of a project, however noble its original intentions, has gone rotten.

In response President Hollande said:

We've been going through this for years. If we don't want to strengthen Europe, then there's only one road and I heard what Mr Farage said that the only road is for those who are not convinced of Europe is to leave Europe.

There is no other way. It's a horrible path, but it's a logical path. Leave Europe, leave Schengen and leave democracy. If you can because do you really want to participate in a common state, that's the question.

So it's not abandoning sovereignty that I'm talking about but I'm talking about sovereignty and sovereignty has nothing to do with souverainism. So we want to avoid going back to nationalism, populism and extremism which is taking us down the wrong path.




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Post time 2016-5-16 23:15:50 |Display all floors
Another Reason for Brexit: EU 'Was a CIA Project from the Beginning'




06 MAY 2016.




If supporters of the UK's exit from the European Union didn't have enough reasons to vote yes on exit, they may have just got another one: according to journalist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the European project was a CIA-inspired scheme from the start.

In a recent piece for The Telegraph, commenting on President Obama's trip to the UK earlier this month to attempt to convince the island nation to vote against Brexit, Evans-Pritchard recalled that "Brexiteers should have been prepared for the shattering intervention of the US," since "the European Union always was an American project."

In fact, the journalist recalled, taking a look back through archival history, one finds that "it was Washington that drove European integration in the late 1940s,", and Washington that "funded it covertly under the Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon administrations."

Contrary to popular belief among some in Europe that the US may have viewed European integration as a threat, the project was in actually always seen as an "anchor to American regional interests alongside NATO," all the way back to its inception.
Evans-Pritchard recalled that the May 1950 Schuman Declaration, the proposal by French Foreign Minister Robert Schuman to create the European Coal and Steel Community, which "set the tone of Franco-German reconciliation – and would lead by stages to the European Community – was cooked up by the US Secretary of State Dean Acheson at a meeting in Foggy Bottom" (in Washington DC).

And it was the Truman administration "that browbeat the French to reach a modus vivendi with Germany in the early post-war years, even threatening to cut off US Marshall aid at a furious meeting with recalcitrant French leaders [if] they resisted in September 1950."

Truman's motive at the time was obvious, the journalist suggests. "The Yalta settlement with the Soviet Union was breaking down," and Truman "wanted a united front to deter the Kremlin from further aggrandizement" as the Cold War conflict began to gather steam.

As for the figure of Jean Monnet, the French economist and diplomat considered to be one of the founding fathers of the European Union, he "looms large in the federalist pantheon, the eminence grise of supranational villainy" among British eurosceptics, but "few are aware that he spent much of his life in America, and served as war-time eyes and ears of Franklin Roosevelt."

In fact, Charles de Gaulle, an opponent of supranational Europe and a staunch supporter of French sovereignty, "thought [Monnet to be] an American agent, as indeed he was in a loose sense." French historian Eric Roussel's voluminous 1,000 page biography of Monnet, yet to be translated into English, "reveals how he worked hand in glove with successive administrations."
Unfortunately, Evans-Pritchard writes, many Britons, and other Europeans, remain unaware of the declassified documents from the US State Department archives "showing that US intelligence funded the European movement secretly for decades, and worked aggressively behind the scenes to push Britain into the project."

For instance, "one memorandum dated July 26, 1950, reveals a campaign to promote a full-fledged European parliament. It was signed by Gen William J Donovan, head of the American wartime Office of Strategic Services, [the] precursor of the Central Intelligence Agency."

In fact, "the key CIA front was the American Committee for a United Europe (ACUE), chaired by Donovan. Another document shows that it provided 53.5 percent of the European movement's funds in 1958. The board [of the ACUE] included Walter Bedell Smith and Allen Dulles, CIA directors in the fifties, and a caste of ex-OSS officials who moved in and out of the CIA."

The archives, Evans-Pritchard adds, show that the CIA essentially "treated some of the EU's 'founding fathers' as hired hands," and even "actively prevented them [from] finding alternative funding that would have broken reliance on Washington."

At the same time, the journalist notes, "there were horrible misjudgments along the way," with "a memo dated June 11, 1965 instruct[ing] the vice-president of the European Community to pursue monetary union by stealth, suppressing debate until 'the adoption of such proposals would become virtually inescapable'. This too was clever by half, as we can see today from debt-deflation traps and mass unemployment across southern Europe."
"In a sense," Evans-Pritchard notes, "these papers are ancient history." But "what they [do] show is that the American 'deep state' was in up to its neck" with the project which has now morphed into the 28-nation European Union.

"It is true that America had second thoughts about the EU once the ideological fanatics gained ascendancy in the late 1980s, recasting the union as a rival superpower with ambitions to challenge and surpass the US. John Kornblum, the State Department's chief of European affairs in the 1990s, says it was a nightmare trying to deal with Brussels," particularly on issues of military, security and defense policy.

At the same time, the journalist writes, Kornblum's view "is interesting, but it is a minority view in US policy circles. The frustration passed when Poland and the first wave of East European states joined the EU in 2004, bringing in a troupe of Atlanticist governments."

"We know it is hardly a love-affair. A top US official was caught two years ago on a telephone intercept dismissing Brussels during the Ukraine crisis with the lapidary words, 'f*** the EU'. Yet the all-pervading view is that the Western liberal order is under triple assault, and the EU must be propped [up]."

This trifecta of threats, Evans-Pritchard argues, includes jihadi terror and the "string of failed states across the Maghreb and the Levant." They also (very debatably) include Russia and China, which are flexing their muscles and 'testing the US alliance structure'.
Ultimately, he argues, if the Brexit camp wants a real shot at success, it "should be laying out plans to increase UK defense spending by half to 3% of GDP, pledging to propel Britain into the lead as the undisputed military power of Europe," and to "bind this country closer to France in an even more intimate security alliance. These moves would at least spike one of Project Fear's biggest guns" ('Project Fear' being the slang for the 'Bremain' campaign).

While Evans-Pritchard's argument about Russia posing a threat to a disunited Europe is highly debatable, the questions he raises about the CIA's role in the creation of the European supranational project are highly relevant. How can any self-respecting Briton, or European for that matter, support a project that was cooked up across the Atlantic for the purpose of maintaining Washington's Cold War hegemony?




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Post time 2016-5-16 23:40:59 |Display all floors
Sunday, March 27, 2016.


To Brexit or Not to Brexit



On June 23rd the UK will be voting on whether to remain in the European Union or leave.

The latest opinion polls suggest that the numbers are fairly evenly split between those who wish to leave and those who wish to remain.

There is one profession however which is showing fairly solid backing for the UK to remain in the EU.

A clear majority of Members of Parliament are supporting the Remain campaign and only 29% of MPs have declared that they will be voting to leave the EU.

Liam McLoughlin has created a map to show how MPs are voting in the EU referendum.

Mapping the Voting intention of UK MPs in the European Referendum is a Fusion Tables Google Map showing the voting intentions of UK MPs.

The red areas on the map show where the local MP is supporting the leave campaign. Blue areas are where the MP is voting to remain in the European Union.

If you click on an electoral district on the map you can find out the name of the sitting MP, their political party and whether they are intending to vote to leave or remain in the EU referendum.




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Post time 2016-5-17 05:08:22 |Display all floors
Nigel Farage has called Cameron a liar and a coward.  I agree.
Your own mind is a sacred enclosure into which nothing harmful can enter except by your permission. Arnold Bennett

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Post time 2016-5-17 19:11:26 |Display all floors
St_George Post time: 2016-5-17 05:08
Nigel Farage has called Cameron a liar and a coward.  I agree.

Aren't all politicians, no matter which party, liars and cowards?!
Patria est ubicunque bene/Obsequium amicos, veritas odium parit

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Post time 2016-5-17 19:14:41 |Display all floors
I personally are pessimistic about the future of the EU...at least how it is developing recently. Also pessimistic about Germany's future.
Thinking honestly about buying property (house/apartment) in Eastern Europe...as emergency retreat
Patria est ubicunque bene/Obsequium amicos, veritas odium parit

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