- Registration time
- Last login
- Online time
- 71 Hour
- Reading permission
I have recently had a long chat with a scholar from Beijing. He told me about a possible oil crisis in the near future and such a crisis will likely involve China and Japan into an all-out conflict. The following is a summary of what he said, which implicates that Taiwan must be taken back peacefully with the consensus of the Taiwanese people.|
China has already surpassed Japan as the world's second biggest consumer of oil. As the world's most populated nation, the demand for more energy is only in the beginning of an exponential rise. With rapid industrialization and pouring foreign investments, China will have the money and the capacity to purchase and excavate more crude oil. However, since the middle east currently accounts for the world's major crude oil production and the middle east is occupied by American and a few Japanese oil companies, the only way China can sustain itself economically in an event of an energy crisis is to decrease the Japanese oil import to some extent. But how can this be done to China's advantage?
Japan currently imports 70-80% of all its crude oil from the middle-east. The crude barrels are transported to Japan by sea from the Gulf, through Indian Ocean, passes Singapore Port, and may occassionally pass through Taiwan's Kaoshiung Port. After China takes Taiwan and holds control of its surrounding waters, China will be able to control Japan's oil import via this route in the event of a global energy crisis. That is why Japan favors the status quo until they find another oil source. In fact, in 2002, Russian officials had already opened a channel with Japan to discuss a pipeline to Nakhodka, an ice-free deep-water port. In February 2002, at a Tokyo conference, an official from Transneft made a speech in which he proposed such a link. In March 2004, the pipeline stretching a distance 48610km was agreed. It is expected to bring crude oil from Sibera to Nakhodka, then to Japan by 2010. Japan is extremely afraid of China's takeover of Taiwan mainly because it will threaten its current route of crude and other imports.
But why is the US involved? Japan is one of America's major trading partner and home to the US 7th fleet. If China gains the effective advantage of controlling Japan's oil import after taking Taiwan, not only will the US interests diminish but also its power in the Pacific. Chinese naval bases in Taiwan will directly offset the US presence. America's hegemony is now starting to be challenged by China, and it knows losing control of Taiwan to China is the beginning of its waning global influence. The recent Bush Doctrine suggests that no country in the world will be able to compete with the US militarily, which indirectly hints that it will never allow China to gain military edge by taking Taiwan.
Believe it or not, the little island southeast of China not only has some very proiftable ports but also one of the most important strategic locations in the Pacific. Japan and the US can easily support Taiwan independence secretly for their interests. I have always had the impression that the US actually wants China to attack Taiwan because it will then give the US and the international world a lot of ways to limit China's military growth. The following is a possible scenario:
- US and Japan support Taiwan independence under the table
- Taiwan delcares independence
- US does not come Taiwan's aid
- China destroys Taiwan in a week
- The western world go on massive protests
- Americans, Japanese and Europeans use this as an excuse to embargo energy import into China in the OPEC
Note that the Americans will do anything to protect their national interests, and their main national interest has always been the BLACK GOLD!
I hope that there's a global natural disaster, so that we'll all learn we must work together to survive. All we have been doing is working against each other for our own greed, power thirst, and whatever interests.
As to China and Taiwan, Chinese killing Chinese only benefits the foreigners and make Chinese people look like immature kids fighting among themselves. If missiles cannot convince the merits of Taiwan reunification, then use another means, please!