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proudcolonel Post time: 2015-5-29 17:35
Sino-Japanese relation is inherently dictated by the rules of geopolitics and can never be fully und ...
Japan, without China, will wither away, and Japan knows it, so that the key decision by Japan is whether or not to attack China and use its resources and land for its own sustenance and growth, or to accept Chinese leadership of East Asia, and share in the peace and prosperity of China, as a junior partner henceforth. But Japan prefers to be a junior partner to a country that it knows it cannot afford to offend, as its very existence depends on that. Therefore, until China can demonstrate to Japan that it possesses an overwhelming superiority in arms, that makes it unaffordable to offend, Japan will choose to oppose China on behalf of a stronger power. That day, is fast approaching, as China realizes its problem is not that it is asking for too much, but rather, that it is too weak to defend its own interests outside the narrow 12 mile territorial sea it is assigned by UNCLOS, which other major powers are not bound by. Once China flies routine planes and sails routine ships around Japan, in international waters, Japan will realize that according to Go principles, as far as its relationship to China is concerned, it is a clump of "dead stones", and will decide to be a Junior partner of China instead of its enemy by proxy.
Even now, if Japan loses its China market, its economy will collapse overnight. China's overvaluation of the Yuan while the BOJ is devaluing the Yen is a hidden stream of tribute from Chinese Japanese-lovers to their Japanese friends, at the expense of the Chinese manufacturers, Chinese banks, and Chinese workers. End that, and Tokyo will be filled with unemployed workers within a month.
Actually, a war between Japan and China in the context of the above exchange rate anomaly will benefit China economically, such that its annual GDP growth rate would likely rise to 10% or greater, essentially paying for the war without costing China a single Yuan.
Of course, we should never want war over peace. The above discussion is purely speculative, in that any conflict depends on Japanese actions, which may or may not materialize. The simplest solution is as the proverb goes, that whoever ties the bell should be the one to untie it. The frivolous claim of Japan over Diaoyudao is the millstone around the neck of Japan that will inevitably cause it unimaginable losses in the months and years to come. Letting go of the fake claim over Diaoyudao will free Japan to be safe, prosperous and popular (at least in the eyes of the Chinese people) all over again.