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Post time 2015-5-29 17:17:56 |Display all floors
Abramicus,

The sovereignty issue is the hardest to overcome.

Firstly, according to international law:  Each country will be untitled for its 200 NM EEC and will have sovereignty over it.

What is left of the South China Sea could be administered by all states involved, inclusive China, through a co-operative organ. China might even have a 50 % stake in it. The rest to be shared by the others.

That's a base for discussion.

You are presenting the maximum claim here without even trying to meet half way.

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Post time 2015-5-29 17:35:43 |Display all floors
Sino-Japanese relation is inherently dictated by the rules of geopolitics and can never be fully understood in isolation. The reconciliation between these two countries is largely, if not solely, depended on China's economic well-being.

The mega trend, in my opinion, is that the fall of Soviet Union has triggered the multipolarization of the world. This in turn has been precipitated, however ironic it may seem, by the promotion of economic globalization, whose initial aim was to preserve as long as possible the economic superiority of US. Japan is enhancing its tie with US because in front of them stands China, a highly effecient eco-political unity whose growth poses immediate threat to their vested interests, whereas UK, facing a relatively loose and weak political entity EU, has more room in policy-making. In this sense, in a post-Cold-War era EU and China, like it or not, are natural allies in advancing their interests. By reactivating the continental routes for commerce, EU and China could bring the global economic center back to the largest and most populous continent of the world. The realization of this prospect requires the reconciliation between EU and Russia and that between China and India, to which US together with Japan and UK are expected to respond accordingly.

It is under such geopolitical and geo-economic change that China has proposed Yi Dai Yi Lu, which is generally welcomed by the Eurasian countries while rejected by US and Japan. If this blueprint eventually comes true -- it won't be easy, though -- then US will be largely marginalized and probably resume isolationism, a grim future for US that has urged it to maintain its sea trade routes by all means necessary. How is this relevant to the Sino-Japan relations? Currently Japan strengthens its ties with US mainly because it is not certain whether reconciliation with China will bring it more benefit. Once the uncertainty is gone, Japan will not hesitate to jump on board. In fact, just as China never closes the door for any possible co-operation, Japan always leaves itself some leeway. In a recent news on the pronouncement of Japan's foreign policy, it discriminates between South Korea and China: it employs strong diplomatic parlance in response to the former while showing much discretion and reservation about the latter. I understand that these nuances are easily overlooked since humans are prone to drama, but still they are important clues to decode international politics.

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Post time 2015-5-29 17:51:10 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2015-5-29 17:55
NgTran Post time: 2015-5-29 16:59
ABRAMICUS,

Getting to a mutual understanding requires both sides to reconsider their position, not  ...

NG TRAN,

Your problem is that you are so hard-headed and opinionated that not even God can convert you to the truth.

China is not demanding anything from the Philippines that the Philippines already owns.  China is merely denying your right to its sovereign territory by the mere ploy of making a frivolous counterclaim.  You talk about honesty and fairness.  Well, then, own up to the truth, and let that be the basis for friendly discussions about how the two countries can share the wealth of the seas that belong to both the EEZ of China and the EEZ of the Philippines, and how to exploit the mineral and marine resources responsibly with due respect to protection of the environment in the areas that are outside both countries' EEZ's.  Drop your claim of sovereignty over Chinese sovereign territories, and you can freely and fully negotiate with China about the regions that legitimately belong to both the EEZ of the Philippines and of China.  Don't think for one moment that your best chance to negotiate an unequal treaty with China is when you have the backing of a nuclear power that carries an implication of a nuclear holocaust for China.  That will only make it harder for you to get anything that does not belong to you.  It will only make it imperative for the Philippines to stick to the truth even more closely, so that China will not appear for any reason to be caving n to the ridiculous threat of being attacked and defeated on her own sovereign soil - it will NEVER happen.  There are no superpowers in Chinese territory, because by definition, the supreme power in Chinese sovereign territory is only the power of the Chinese government.  This is not just a matter of national interest, it is the supreme national imperative that supersedes all national interests.

It is good you are willing to talk, to meet halfway, and you should have done so, before you got a nuclear gun pointed at China's head.  Now you blame China for being stubborn?  You made China harden its position, which it had to do or lose all semblance of sovereignty.  Why don't you meet halfway, drop your spurious claim of sovereignty in your media, as your government did at the ITLOS, and China will meet you halfway on your proposal to develop the trillions of dollars of riches in the South China Sea, one-on-one, because what China gives to one country, no other country has a say as to how much or how little it should be, nor a right to claim it as a valid precedent for its own deals with China, as the reasonableness of the demands of each country stand or fall on their individual merits.

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Post time 2015-5-29 17:55:59 |Display all floors
I do not need to write long pamphlets like you.

I just did a simple suggestion.

And it is a simple fact, that, if two parties want to overcome distrust, they need to compromise.

But "compromise" seems to be a word, you have not learned in school.

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Post time 2015-5-29 18:02:19 |Display all floors
NgTran Post time: 2015-5-29 17:17
Abramicus,

The sovereignty issue is the hardest to overcome.

Correction on your post, as a matter of fact, the 200 NM of EEZ does not confer sovereignty on the country that is assigned that EEZ by UNCLOS rules, but rather, the exclusive right to the exploitation of the resources of the waters and seabed in the EEZ.  But, what you are proposing is not unreasonable, as there is no reason why coastal countries and archipelagic countries should not simply have their territorial seas extended to the EEZ they are entitled to, because if they have the exclusive right to the exploitation of such regions, they should also have the exclusive right to protect their assets used in the same region for the purpose of exploiting their resources.  This right to exploit would logically imply a right to protect what it uses to exploit the resources, and basically implies not just a "sovereign right" as India correctly proposed, but simply "sovereignty", such that all the ASEAN countries, including China, Korea and Japan would be contigous sovereign states, in the seas, if not also on land.  This makes it harder for passers by to incite quarrels between peaceful neighbors in the name of helping one to defend against the other.

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Post time 2015-5-29 18:13:46 |Display all floors
NgTran Post time: 2015-5-29 17:55
I do not need to write long pamphlets like you.

I just did a simple suggestion.

Ng Tran,

Opinions should accept compromise, but facts?  How can you compromise a fact?  Can you make a fact less true by agreeing to a compromise?  China would have happily compromised with the Philippines before the Philippines made a counterclaim of sovereignty.  If the Philippines is truly interested in a compromise on the exploitation of the resources of the South China Sea, then it can simply drop its counterclaim of sovereignty, and deal with China exclusively on the issue of their overlapping EEZ's, and even on joint exploitation of some areas that belong to one and not the other's EEZ, through equitable business arrangements.  I am afraid your offer for a compromise is really to compromise China's claim of sovereignty, knowing that your own claim has no real factual basis, and now has no physical means of imposing on China after all.  Your offer is just a re-packaged attempt to internationalize China's sovereign territories and EEZ's in the South China Sea, such that what China now truly owns becomes a matter for international arbitration, which is disallowed under the UNCLOS, and which China rightly exercised it right of refusal to.

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Post time 2015-5-29 18:31:27 |Display all floors
proudcolonel Post time: 2015-5-29 17:35
Sino-Japanese relation is inherently dictated by the rules of geopolitics and can never be fully und ...

Japan, without China, will wither away, and Japan knows it, so that the key decision by Japan is whether or not to attack China and use its resources and land for its own sustenance and growth, or to accept Chinese leadership of East Asia, and share in the peace and prosperity of China, as a junior partner henceforth.  But Japan prefers to be a junior partner to a country that it knows it cannot afford to offend, as its very existence depends on that.  Therefore, until China can demonstrate to Japan that it possesses an overwhelming superiority in arms, that makes it unaffordable to offend, Japan will choose to oppose China on behalf of a stronger power.  That day, is fast approaching, as China realizes its problem is not that it is asking for too much, but rather, that it is too weak to defend its own interests outside the narrow 12 mile territorial sea it is assigned by UNCLOS, which other major powers are not bound by.  Once China flies routine planes and sails routine ships around Japan, in international waters, Japan will realize that according to Go principles, as far as its relationship to China is concerned, it is a clump of "dead stones", and will decide to be a Junior partner of China instead of its enemy by proxy.

Even now, if Japan loses its China market, its economy will collapse overnight.  China's overvaluation of the Yuan while the BOJ is devaluing the Yen is a hidden stream of tribute from Chinese Japanese-lovers to their Japanese friends, at the expense of the Chinese manufacturers, Chinese banks, and Chinese workers.  End that, and Tokyo will be filled with unemployed workers within a month.

Actually, a war between Japan and China in the context of the above exchange rate anomaly will benefit China economically, such that its annual GDP growth rate would likely rise to 10% or greater, essentially paying for the war without costing China a single Yuan.

Of course, we should never want war over peace.  The above discussion is purely speculative, in that any conflict depends on Japanese actions, which may or may not materialize.  The simplest solution is as the proverb goes, that whoever ties the bell should be the one to untie it.  The frivolous claim of Japan over Diaoyudao is the millstone around the neck of Japan that will inevitably cause it unimaginable losses in the months and years to come.  Letting go of the fake claim over Diaoyudao will free Japan to be safe, prosperous and popular (at least in the eyes of the Chinese people) all over again.



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