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How much longer can PRC China sustain 7%+ growth? [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2015-4-17 09:31:29 |Display all floors
This post was edited by cestmoi at 2015-4-17 09:32

How long have I been on BBS now?

All along, I have said again and again, PRC China cannot rely on steel, coal, real estate, cheap labor and export of hi-volumn, lo-margin, lo-quality widgets.

I have said all along that PRC China must also have a consumer-driven economy a la USofA.

Yes, I know, Chinese consumerism (all 1 billion 500 million of them) would likely hasten the end of the world as homo pseudo-sapien know it.

Economically, PRC China came off a rather low base due to its own fault, and achieved the remarkable 7+% year-on-year growth, but going forward, I don't think that's achievable without significant damage to the country and the environment .

The only way PRC China can do it is to encourage private sector consumerism.

Will it be in time to support the 7% growth?

Debatable.
Let the dice fly high

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Post time 2015-4-17 10:23:32 |Display all floors
numbers are not important...go to china and feel its psychic atmosphere...the people's psychological well-being is more important but such things can't easily be measured.

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Post time 2015-4-17 15:39:51 |Display all floors
skater7 Post time: 2015-4-17 10:23
numbers are not important...go to china and feel its psychic atmosphere...the people's psychological ...


the language of fear, hiddden in hieroglyph which is Greek for "sacred writing.

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Post time 2015-4-17 20:31:42 |Display all floors
Long and long times .........

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Post time 2015-4-18 01:16:58 |Display all floors
skater7 Post time: 2015-4-17 10:23
numbers are not important...go to china and feel its psychic atmosphere...the people's psychological ...

You have a point, the PRC Chinese are more confident of themselves and prouder of their collective achievement. PRC Chinese are no longer the "weak man of Asia and its whipping dog". PRC China has come a long way, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.

Just as Deng heralded in PRC's post-Mao economy, now President Xi has to steer PRC China into a post-Deng era.

Xi has a big job over the next 10 years. The rapid urbanization of the massive population, their expectations of the economy and their fading trust in the CCP, reverse environmental damages, come down on corruption hard... a whole list of laundry left behind by the previous government. It is quite unfortunate that Hu didn't tackle those issues more forcefully.

I want you guys to look to Greece as an anti-example if corruption is not tackled with the full force of the law. Greece's taxation system is broken. If the taxpayer is well connected and willing to bribe the tax-collector, maybe split the difference down the middle, than the person or business gets to keep the othr 50%.

Don't do that!

XI needs to set up an independent tribunal to fight corruption, especially corruption from within.
Let the dice fly high

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Post time 2015-4-18 02:38:56 |Display all floors
China needs to move away from low-cost labor-intensive manufacturing industries geared for export markets to high-value knowledge-based industries serving the domestic market. There are three ways to do this:

1. Pubic goods and services: infrastructure, urbanization, clean energy, green environment, mass transit
2. Social goods and services: housing, healthcare, childcare, retirement, education, culture, sports
3. Consumer goods and services: travel, tourism, fashion, food&beverage, lifestyle, etc.

China lacks a "welfare state" to take care of its citizens. Creating a well-funded, efficient and productive social welfare system allows the people to spend more of their disposable income on consumer goods and services. Without this "welfare state", Chinese people save too much money to pay for their social welfare in lieu of their consumer lifestyle.

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Post time 2015-4-18 03:44:00 |Display all floors
bigger mega projects nowadays for china & little crumbs are just no longer appetize  
a man who uses his hands is a laborer. one who uses his hands and his mind is a craftsman. but he who uses his hands, his mind, and his heart, is an artist...

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