Author: dragon8

the dollar's 70-year dominance is coming to an end   [Copy link] 中文

Medal of honor

Post time 2014-11-7 09:04:08 |Display all floors
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Post time 2014-11-25 22:59:04 |Display all floors
The real WMD of Saddam Hussein






1.   He was starting to back his paper Dinar with gold.

2.   He was starting to sell Iraqi oil for currencies other than the U.S. dollar.





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Post time 2014-11-26 08:37:45 |Display all floors
dragon8 Post time: 2014-11-25 22:59
The real WMD of Saddam Hussein

your saddam is with his Allah for many many years already lo.................................


I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2014-11-28 23:12:11 |Display all floors
by Escrava Isaura
Accordingly to Jim Rickards SDR will become the next reserve currency and US will debase the dollar against gold and tax gold profit very high.

And the US will blame the SDR (IMF) for the dollar collapse.

Anyway, you might appreciate this post as well. It’s one of my favorites:

Thermodynamics for Economists by Mark B Cunnington that goes by the name of Null Hypothesis, at “The Oil Drum”.

If you walk outside you’ll see birds chirping, trees whispering…., except we have nicer looking cars…

What’s so different about today that provokes Chicken Littles like me to scream that the world is about to end?

The answer to this is that our entire financial system, and its history going back at least 100 years, has been predicated on, and driven by, perpetual economic growth. That is what provides value to money. Money is literally created out of future debt….

People historically bought those bonds because they were reasonably confident that the economy would grow at a rate roughly equal to the bond coupon,

But in 1970 the US hit Peak Oil. As a result, its economy should have begun declining because it couldn’t grow anymore. But it didn’t decline, at least to the degree one would have expected. Why not? Because there was a fundamental change to the monetary system. In 1971, the US defaulted on its gold convertibility and the dollar became a fully debt backed fiat currency.

Those systems are dependent on perpetual exponential growth and they invariably, 100% of the time, blow up in hyperinflation. How did the US avoid that catastrophe? It (militarily) enforced the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, that’s how, which extended the US empire around the world and forced other countries to sell their resources (oil and manufactured gizmos) to the US in exchange for pieces of paper. That was a fundamental system change in 1971.

In order to keep the bond vigilantes at bay and prevent a runaway monetary collapse, in 1982 the Fed increased interest rates to about 20%. This “destroyed” the economy, but the alternative was hyperinflation which would have destroyed it as well. Back then, the economy could weather those high interest rates without completely collapsing because it wasn’t over-leveraged. And more importantly, the US still retained the world’s reserve currency, so it could run a perpetual trade deficit and CONTINUE GROWING – using other countries’ resources, who hadn’t yet hit Peak.

We are now looking at another imminent system change.

There is now no “productive” monetary asset left that can provide a positive real rate of return, absent central bank manipulation of select markets, at the expense of others.

We’re at Peak Oil. Duh! How can anyone seriously expect a consistent rate of return on their investments when the real world upon which those investments are valued isn’t growing?

Anyone who casually looks out the window and concludes that what is going in society now resembles anything close to historical norms is in for a big surprise.

The system WILL end, and it will not end with a whimper.

All this talk about whether total global oil production is up or down a …. it’s all just statistical noise.

The world will be on its downward spiral. And the naysayers taunting the doomers will mysteriously vanish into the woodwork, just like they always do after every ponzi scheme crashes.

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Post time 2014-11-28 23:47:02 |Display all floors
bushier Post time: 2014-11-28 23:12
by Escrava Isaura
Accordingly to Jim Rickards SDR will become the next reserve currency and US will  ...



gold is going to US$ 700................

who wants to hold on to a losing position?



I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2014-11-28 23:51:56 |Display all floors


whoever planned the attack on gold and oil prices causing both to collapse is a genius.


this is the greatest present to the real economy.



I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2014-12-4 02:54:09 |Display all floors
US Debt Reaches $18 Trillion




02 December 2014.




Total U.S. national debt hit a new record high overnight at over $18 trillion as the Obama administration continues to pile debt onto the back of the U.S. taxpayer at a rate that would have made George W. Bush look positively prudent.

With the U.S. national debt or government debt now at over a staggering $18 trillion, it means that each household in the U.S. now carries the burden of $124,000 in national debt alone - or $56,378 per individual. This does not include the massive private debt or household debt burden - people’s  mortgages, personal loans, credit card debt, student loans, car loans and other household debt.

When Obama took office in 2009, the national debt had surged to $10.6 trillion up from $3 trillion at the beginning of Bush’s tenure in 2001.

The total U.S. debt has increased by 70% under Obama, from $10.625 trillion on January 21, 2009 to over $18.005 trillion today

In short, the federal government has borrowed, and spent, nearly $7.5 trillion more since President Obama took office than it has collected in taxes.

Obama’s policies have continued to favour Wall Street and corporate interests over Main Street.

As ever, historical context is all important. The U.S National Debt took 43 Presidents from 1789 until 2008 to reach $10 trillion. The National Debt rose $4.899 trillion during the two terms of the Bush presidency. It has now gone up nearly $8 trillion since President Obama took office.

The U.S. national debt is spiralling out of control, seemingly without any plan to ever reign it in and yet the rise above $18 trillion was not reported in mainstream media.

Compared to this time last year, the national debt has grown by another $1 trillion.

Astoundingly, more than $7 trillion of additional US national debt will have been accumulated over the 8 year duration of Obama’s two presidencies, which is more than the accumulated U.S. national debt of all previous U.S. presidents combined.

This is not to mention the astronomical expenses of more than $200 trillion of U.S. government unfunded liabilities such as medicare, medicaid and social security. Household debt--including mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and student loans -- remains close to $12 trillion.

The U.S. debt position increasingly has all the hallmarks of a Ponzi scheme. The Daily Treasury Statement that was released last Wednesday afternoon as Americans were preparing to eat turkey on Thanksgiving revealed that the U.S. Treasury has been forced to issue $1,040,965,000,000 in new debt since fiscal 2015 started. This is just eight weeks ago. they had to do this in order to raise the money to pay off Treasurysecurities that were maturing and to cover new deficit spending by the government.

During those eight weeks, Treasury took in $341,591,000,000 ($341 billion) in revenues. That was a record for the period between October 1 and November 25. But that record $341,591,000,000 ($341 billion)  in revenues was not enough to finance ongoing government spending let alone pay off old debt that matured.

A conservative measure of the U.S. National Debt to GDP ratio is now around 103%. The talking heads have, for many years, downplayed the out of control spending of successive administrations with the justification that it was below the “psychologically important” debt to GDP ratio of 100%.

Well, here we are now over 100%  and all is quiet.

The Total U.S. Debt to GDP ratio is now over 300%. Such debt levels ordinarily give rise to debt crises and currency crises.

So how can we expect this scenario to play out? If it hasn’t mattered thus far why should it matter now? Well for one, U.S. government profligacy has been protected by the extraordinary status that the dollar has enjoyed as a reserve currency since the early 1970s and Nixon going off the Gold Standard.

Heretofore, almost all balance of trade deficits have been settled with dollars. All oil transactions have been settled in dollars. This has allowed the U.S. an “exorbitant privilege” in the words of  Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the former French Minister of Finance. It has allowed the U.S. to live beyond its means because its currency remained in demand regardless of its economic performance.

Over the course of this year, however, the dollar has taken what should be seen as an alarming series of blows to its status as trusted sole global reserve currency as currency wars intensify.

Increasingly, the new power bloc that are the BRICS nations are settling their trade deficits with domestic currencies, by-passing the dollar. Russia and Turkey have just signed a gas-line agreement to this effect. As has russia. There is a perception that the U.S. dollar is still strong and is still the reserve currency of choice.

This is based on the strong performance of the Dollar Index as of late. It is important to note the distinction between the dollar and the Dollar Index. The index rates the dollar relative to a basket of other mainly western currencies, primarily the euro. The recent “strength” of the dollar is merely strength against these other struggling currencies including the euro.

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, pointed out last week that “the seven developing economies headed by BRICS already have a bigger GDP than the Western G7.” This drives home the message that the economic might of the U.S. is waning. It is doubtful whether it will be able to re-establish or indeed maintain the Bretton Woods paradigm which gave the dollar it’s preeminent status.

Another major cause for concern should be the impending rise in interest rates. The ability of the U.S. to service its debt will be drastically reduced if rates move higher. Already a number of states have defaulted. The luxury of determining interest rates may not be one that the Fed will enjoy for very much longer. When rates do finally rise we may witness the default of the U.S..

If this spectre comes to pass – and possibly independent of it – there will be demand for a new store of wealth. History teaches us, regardless of our own philosophical or economic outlook, that gold will be one such store.

The BRICs countries are major purchasers of gold - both their people and their central banks. If economic influence is moving East it would be prudent to emulate them and acquire gold as a store of value. As always, we advocate allocated and segregated gold coins and bars in secure vaults and in safe jurisdictions around the world.

This continuing surge in the U.S. national debt means that the U.S. is now the largest debtor nation in the world - by a significant margin. This profligacy will be paid back by the American people, and most likely by people every where, in the form of higher taxes, higher interest rates, inflation and almost certainly currency crises.

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