Author: abramicus

The Mathematics of War Needs to be Understood to Preserve the Peace.   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2014-8-11 00:23:02 |Display all floors
J.E.Overington Post time: 2014-8-10 20:12
Peace differs from the absence of war. To see it clearly, imagine war as a garden under parasitic at ...

???"""due to focusing on forming good relations,""" ??????

I don't believe what I read here.

You surely mean it in a cynical way, right ?

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Post time 2014-8-11 00:36:39 |Display all floors
This post was edited by sfphoto at 2014-8-11 00:40
abramicus Post time: 2014-8-10 20:52
I am glad you mentioned recursive systems which for the apparent simplicity of their basic equation ...

My earlier mistake (now corrected) in characterizing your use of probabilistic models as "game theory"; the correct term is "stochastic systems" falling under probability theory used in modeling non-deterministic systems which exhibit random behavior.

However, chaos theory is far more pertinent when applied to geopolitical events as they are modeled as deterministic systems but with unpredictable outcomes. In electrical engineering, Chua's Circuit which was invented by Dr. Leon O. Chua (蔡少棠) is a widely-studied example of a simple implementation of an nonlinear circuit exhibiting chaotic behavior. His daugher, Amy Chua, wrote the book "World on Fire" as a polemic against Western attempts to promote their neoliberal agenda in the Third World, citing cases of widespread chaos in their ensuing liberalization.

There is nothing random about the behavior of Japan thus disqualifying the use of probabilistic models to predict future events. But since Japan is an autonomous actor with its own agenda, the geopolitical system in East Asia is fully deterministic but is nonlinear in nature which gives rise to unpredictable outcomes with a sensitive dependence on initial conditions as set by the U.S.A. In particular, the U.S.A. in formulating an anti-China containment strategy is setting the initial conditions as inimical as possible to China's interests and then encouraging its proxies to act on their own path-dependent agendas. The danger here is the so-called "Butterfly Effect" which implies that a slight variation in the initial conditions can lead to widely-divergent outcomes. An example is Japan's attempt to revive its wartime propaganda in Southeast Asia today by claiming the "yellow man's burden" to justify its brutal occupation during WWII as necessary to liberate Asia from Western colonialism.


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Post time 2014-8-11 00:50:52 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-8-11 01:13

All real systems have stochastic characteristics, including those structured as chaos systems, and it is this randomness inherent in the specificiation of the initial conditions that make chaos systems not predictable even by their creators, such as the appearance of Sisi in Egypt, and of the ISIS in Iraq, but note, is this coincidence that their names are mirror images of each other?

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Post time 2014-8-11 05:45:03 |Display all floors
abramicus Post time: 2014-8-9 15:15
I used the numbers for illustration purposes, giving each protagonist a very conservative estimate o ...

So you invented the numbers without any logical equation to work from ?

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Post time 2014-8-11 05:49:05 |Display all floors
abramicus Post time: 2014-8-10 15:21
WAR BY PROXY DOES NOT DELAY GLOBAL CONFLICT - IT ACCELERATES AND MAKES IT HAPPEN BY SHEER LOGIC OF T ...

And what it is the other way round ( just as likely ) ? Why is China not on your probability list?

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Post time 2014-8-11 05:50:58 |Display all floors
abramicus Post time: 2014-8-10 15:24
Aussies should stay out of this.

What a racist comment! If it is to be a World War surely in concerns people of EVERY nation

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Post time 2014-8-11 06:54:26 |Display all floors
yipman2 Post time: 2014-8-9 00:06
I see you have awarded a very large 'War index' to Japan. I find this odd since even China has sta ...

I think you are confusing China with America. Name one war China has started.
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