Author: abramicus

The Mathematics of War Needs to be Understood to Preserve the Peace.   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2014-8-9 16:35:19 |Display all floors
This post was edited by NgTran at 2014-8-9 16:36
abramicus Post time: 2014-8-9 15:15
I used the numbers for illustration purposes, giving each protagonist a very conservative estimate o ...

I can see the "holy light" of China's peaceful rise shining all over the place.
Now even with 5 new light towers in disputed waters.

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Post time 2014-8-9 16:44:16 |Display all floors
This post was edited by NgTran at 2014-8-9 17:07

Philippines and Vietnam are NOT proxies of the USA. Like China they are involved "directly" with their own territory or territorial claims in the dispute (it is NOT the territory or territorial claim of the US).

Talking about proxies is purely Chinese propaganda.

Looking for a counterweight to match mighty China is just a consequence of China's actions.
Of course you can always put on the saddle on a horse starting at it's tail.


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Post time 2014-8-9 16:50:27 |Display all floors
The presented mathematics are a farce - they lack the neutral approach of a neutral person.

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Post time 2014-8-9 16:50:58 |Display all floors
Mathematics is useful but the world is unpredictable.

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Post time 2014-8-9 18:17:56 |Display all floors
nihao567 Post time: 2014-8-9 16:50
Mathematics is useful but the world is unpredictable.

This is why the mathematical model of the current status quo of conflict by proxies has to be a probabilistic one.  There can be honest disagreements about the values of the component risks used in the model, but the model allows one to tie up all these disparate values into a unitary value that expresses the risk of a major global conflict due to the actions of these "lesser players" who in the aggregate can determine the fate of the "major players", as the Korean War and the Sarajevo incident in 1914 illustrated.  The model shows that proxy wars, far from shielding the major players from direct conflict, increase their likelihood of having one.

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Post time 2014-8-9 18:25:24 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-8-9 18:29
NgTran Post time: 2014-8-9 16:33
COUNTRY        War       Peace
Vietnam:          0.02      0.98
Philippines:      0.02       0.98

As for the major players, the regime of MAD still holds, and none would want to have a major conflict with any other nuclear power, which means their chances of acting to start WWIII would be lower than that of any of the "lesser players" like Vietnam, Philippines and Japan.  There is a very REAL and very SERIOUS moral hazard for anyone to insure Japan against a retaliatory attack by China, because it encourages Japan to literally start the fire in order to collect the insurance.  This is part of the problem, and while it is painted as a solution to China's assertiveness, so-called, it is in reality a blank check for Japan to invade and attack Chinese territories like Diaoyudao without fear of any consequences.  Much like the Mortgage Crisis, Japan is taking out a mortgage, on the basis of a CDO, to wage war on China, that could sink another Wall Street, both figuratively and literally.



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Post time 2014-8-9 18:48:54 |Display all floors
This post was edited by abramicus at 2014-8-9 18:52

WHAT ABE SHOULD REALIZE IS THAT NO MATTER HOW GENEROUS THE LIFE INSURANCE PAYOUT MAY BE, NO INSURED PERSON WILL BE ABLE TO COLLECT AND ENJOY HIS OWN LIFE INSURANCE PAYOUT.

The fate of those who dare to attack China and invade it, especially for a repeat unrepentant aggressor like his Japan, of Imperial Japanese vintage, is the same whether it has or does not have any external insurance.  Japan will bear the costs of its own mistake, fully and completely, first.  And probability-wise, it may not be able to collect on the insurance afterwards.  Any one who jumps off the cliff because he has been fully insured should have his head examined.

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