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Share China-UK economic relations and RMB internationalisation
JOHN-ROSS 2014-7-15 15:31
TV interview with me on China CCTV News about Chinese Prime Minister's visit to the UK - particular focus on internationalisation of RMB http://english.cntv.cn/2014/06/20/VIDE1403256725540259.shtml
2043 views|1 comments Popularity 2
Share New data shows China's economy growth
JOHN-ROSS 2014-7-15 15:23
New data shows China's economy grew almost 5 times as fast as the US in the last year . The publication of the latest US GDP data casts a clear light on the false claim the US economy is recovering strongly and China faces 'crisis'. The data shows that in the last year, from the 1st quarter of 2013 to 1st quarter 2014, China's economy grew by 7.4% and the US economy by 1.5% – see Figure 1. Even given the effect of the bad weather on the US economy in the 1st quarter, the much greater growth ...
3599 views|3 comments Popularity 3
Share The dangers of exaggerating RMB internationalisation
JOHN-ROSS 2014-7-15 15:19
RMB ‘internationalization’ is one of the most discussed issues in China’s economic policy. But many claims regarding the extent of RMB internationalization are greatly exaggerated and the practical proposal to attempt to achieve it, capital account convertibility of the RMB, is extremely dangerous for China’s economic and social stability. To eliminate false estimates and policies, it is, therefore, necessary first to accurately establish the facts regarding the real international role of t ...
1658 views|0 comments
Share The long term deceleration of the US economy
JOHN-ROSS 2014-6-17 11:00
his chart shows the dominant long term trend in the US economy - gradual deceleration. A 20 year moving average is used to eliminate all cyclical or short term trends. The deceleration from 4.4% in 1969, to 4.1% in 1978, to 3.5% in 2002, to 2.5% in the first quarter of 2014 is clear. The temporary recovery in the late 1990s and beginning of the 21st century proved unsustainable and was followed by a sharper fall. This trend shows that the most enduring feature of the US economy, which must b ...
2154 views|0 comments Popularity 2
Share Why China's stimulus was so much more effective than the US - Stephen Roach
JOHN-ROSS 2014-6-17 10:58
"From late 2008 to May 2014, the Fed’s balance sheet increased by a total of $3.4 trillion, well in excess of the $2.6 trillion increase in nominal GDP over the same period. This is hardly “Mission accomplished,” as QE supporters claim. Every dollar of QE generated only 76 cents of nominal GDP. "Unlike the United States, which relied largely on its central bank’s efforts to cushion the crisis and foster recovery, China deployed a CN¥4 trillion fiscal stimulus (about 12% of its 2008 GDP) ...
1804 views|0 comments
Share Market romanticism' is as damaging in China as everywhere else
JOHN-ROSS 2014-5-14 10:58
China is by now strong enough to deal with any external threat to its development. Only major internal errors can block its progress. One well known such threat is any attempt to return to an administered, as opposed to a ‘socialist market’economy. However negative financial events – increases in interbank lending rates, falls in share prices, much higher bond yields than in other major economies, falls in manufacturing and service sector PMIs - highlight another danger, that of ‘market ...
2420 views|2 comments Popularity 4
Share China is now the world's main trade locomotive
JOHN-ROSS 2014-4-29 17:07
China has overtaken the United States to become the world's largest goods trading nation. Indeed, since the beginning of the international financial crisis, increases in China's merchandise trade have been larger than those of the United States, EU and Japan combined. Even last year, well after recovery from the trough of the "Great Recession," China's trade increase was bigger than that of any other economic centre. In particular China's increase in imports remained larger than the combined t ...
2034 views|2 comments Popularity 4
Share 'Market romanticism' is as damaging in China as everywhere else
JOHN-ROSS 2014-2-11 09:37
China is by now strong enough to deal with any external threat to its development. Only major internal errors can block its progress. One well known such threat is any attempt to return to an administered, as opposed to a ‘socialist market’, economy. However negative financial events – increases in interbank lending rates, falls in share prices, much higher bond yields than in other major economies, falls in manufacturing and service sector PMIs - highlight another danger, that of ‘market r ...
2211 views|1 comments Popularity 2
Share Why China will grow rich before it grows old
JOHN-ROSS 2014-1-7 09:33
The announcement of the relaxation of China's one child policy created great discussion in China and internationally. But its significance was widely misunderstood. Contrary to myth, the increase in China's labor supply plays little role in China's rapid economic growth. In reality, 96 percent of China's economic growth comes from factors other than a rising labour supply. Therefore, there is no reason why China's economy should slow significantly because China's working age popul ...
10428 views|9 comments Popularity 7
Share China accounts for 100% of the reduction in the number of the world's people liv
JOHN-ROSS 2013-11-29 15:33
In 2010 Professor Danny Quah , of the London School of Economics, noted: 'In the last 3 decades, China alone has lifted morepeople out of extreme poverty than the rest of the world combined. Indeed, China’s($1/day) poverty reduction of 627 million from 1981 to 2005 exceeds the total globaleconomy’s decline in its extremely poor from 1.9 billion to 1.4 billion over the sameperiod.' The aim of this article is to analyse the situation taking data published three yea ...
3815 views|1 comments Popularity 1

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