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greendragon Post time: 2014-3-11 14:21
No, I think Mr. Putin will not GO INTO KIEV.
Obvious - strategic thinking.
UNITED , SEPARATED AND SECURED BY THE DNIEPER RIVER - THE SIAMESE TWINS OF KIEV AND CRIMEA.
Agree, originally, perhaps Putin would not likely want to invade Kiev. But, if the Kiev government orchestrates insurrections within Eastern Ukraine against its referendum to become a part of Russia, or it the Kiev government actually orders its army and its allies to attack Eastern Ukraine, then all bets are off. Putin may decide to take Kiev directly to end all the fighting, at least against the regular forces of Western Ukraine.
As long as Crimea is on the table, rationally speaking, one would expect Kiev to also be on the table.
The best solution is for both sides to agree that they disagree with each other, and that there is no possibility that the Western Ukrainians would trust a government run by an Eastern Ukrainian, and vice versa, and therefore, they should sit down and negotiate a formal separation of Ukraine into two parts, or of Eastern Ukraine simply becoming a part of Russia, if that is what its people want to do.
Insisting on an undivided Ukraine that includes a Crimea that refuses to bow to Kiev is simply insisting on an unconditional surrender by Crimea to Kiev, and that will not happen, whatever the pretext or threat. If Kiev tries to go nuclear, then Putin will take that as an aggravated threat, worse that its claim over Crimea, and would probably take over Kiev as a matter of self-defense.
From a practical standpoint, all lands west of the Dnieper River would naturally be under Kiev, and those east of the Dnieper River would be under Crimea, as any other division would be hard to defend, and therefore be unstable.