This post was edited by ttt222 at 2013-10-17 15:07|
Up until last year, gold prices rose for at least 11 years in a row. The precious metal spawned a frenzy among everyone from gold bugs to politicos who think America should return to the gold standard. But today they're likely feeling nervous. Gold prices have entered bear market territory, having fallen by 22% this year.
And it's going to get worse as investors zero in on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale down its stimulus program, called quantitative easing. Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts say gold will continue dropping into 2014, possibly falling below $1,000 an ounce, a level not seen since early 2009. This is a reverse from gold's steady rise from $800 an ounce in early 2009 to more than $1,900 in the fall of 2011; on Tuesday morning, it was trading at $1,314.50 in New York.
而且，未来形势将会变得更加糟糕，投资者正在关注美联储（Federal Reserve）是否会缩减经济刺激计划的规模，即量化宽松。高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师表示，金价下跌将一直持续到2014年，届时可能会跌破每盎司1,000美元，创下自2009年初以来的新低。这个变化将扭转从2009年初到2011年秋天之间的趋势。在此期间，金价从800美元稳步上涨到了1,900上方。17日上午，纽约的黄金交易价格为每盎司1,314.50美元。
Regardless whether the Fed tapers its bond-buying program this week or later, a few other factors will likely drive prices lower.
Inflation. What inflation?
Gold is typically a hedge against rapidly rising prices. Since the financial crisis, many economies from U.S. to Europe have launched several rounds of quantitative easing. The supply of money tripled in most advanced economies, and many worried it would effectively stoke inflation.
Unless all you consume is bacon, inflation hasn't been a problem as the U.S. and the rest of the world retreats from financial abyss. In fact, global inflation is actually low and falling further. In a June article in Project Syndicate, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini forecast that gold could fall to $1,000 by 2015.
Roubini, nicknamed Dr. Doom for his forecasts of the financial crisis, noted that even though the supply of money has expanded it hasn't changed very many hands, largely because banks have been hoarding cash in the form of excess reserves.
If banks start lending more, however, the risks of inflation could rise. Even then, gold faces other headwinds.
It may be safe, but where are the returns?
Unlike other assets, gold provides no income. That was an overlooked issue during the worst years following the financial crisis, but now that the economy is improving, gold must compete with returns on other investments, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate.