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美国民众对待移民问题的真实想法 [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2013-9-2 17:12:54 |Display all floors
Contrary to conventional wisdom, they don’t like much about the Gang of Eight bill.

与传统观点相违背的,现在的美国民众不太赞同the Gang of Eight的政策。

Now that the Gang of Eight immigration bill haspassed the Senate, the political conversation has shifted to the House — specifically, to the question of whether or not House Republicans can survive should they decide to back similar legislation.

the Gang of Eight的移民政策已经通过了参议院,这个政治谈话已经转入到了议院内——特别的,针对议院共和党人是否能生存的问题,他们是否应该将政策调整到与以前相似。

Yet the political class continues to show surprisingly little interest in the evidence as to whether or not the American public actually supports the Gang’s bill and all of its major provisions. (It’s worth noting that even the bill’s primary backers are unable to answer basic questions about what’s in it.) A look at the polling data suggests that the conventional wisdom — most people want immigration reform, as defined by the Gang of Eight, to happen — is, at the very least, more complicated than the bill’s supporters would have you believe.

政治阶级仍然对美国民众是否真的支持Gang的政策和其主要规定,有着令人惊奇的一些兴趣(值得注意的是,这些政策的最初支持者都很难答上一些关于政策的基本问题)。一个投票数据显示,支持传统观念的人——大多数人想要移民方式改革,就像the Gang of Eight那样,——至少,有比现在政策支持者更加复杂的问题。

For example, an ABC News/Washington Post poll published Thursday asked registered voters three questions about the Senate immigration bill without specifically referring to the legislation. As ABC’s Jonathan Karl explained to Senator Ted Cruz recently, it found that a majority (55 percent) of respondents support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, a central component of the Senate bill. That is generally in line with previous polling on the subject, though there is some variation depending on how the question is framed.

举个例子,美国ABC广播公司和华盛顿邮局的调查在周四发布了,这份调查向已登记投票人询问了三个关于议院的移民政策的问题,但是不特指某部法律。就像ABC的员工Jonathan Karl最近向参议员Ted Cruz解释的,大多数回答者(55%)支持参议院的一个核心法案,开通一条为公民身份的非法移民路径。这通常是按照以前的主题做的调查,尽管有些关于问题所制定的变化。

The poll also found strong support (64 percent) for the “border surge”provision (the Corker-Hoeven amendment), which was added to the bill in order to win (primarily) Republican support. That measure calls for 700 miles of fencing along the southern border and 20,000 new Border Patrol agents, an increase that the union representing those agents did not request, and likely does not have the capacity to accommodate. Support for the border surge fell to 53 percent, however, when voters were informed how much it would cost — about $46 billion over ten years.

投票显示有很多人(约64%)支持“边境增兵”政策(the Corker-Hoeven修正案),这一政策还被列入了法案来赢得(主要的)共和党人的支持。那样的政策需要绕着南面的边境竖起700英里的栅栏并且要有20000个新的边境巡逻队士兵。请求去当边境士兵的美国人越来越多,但是边境却没有能力接纳这些人。但投票者们被告知十年的花费将超过460亿美元时,这项“边境增兵”措施的支持率下降到了53%。
That was the extent of the survey. The Post wrote up the findings under the headline, “Senate immigration plan wins majority support from public.” It’s treatment like this that drives the Gang of Eight’s opponents mad — the media often insists on reducing the entire debate over an issue as complex as immigration reform to measuring support for giving illegal immigrants a path to citizenship and (less prominently) securing the border.

这就是该调查的结果,华盛顿邮报写道‘参议院移民法案获得了大多数公众的支持’。媒体的这种报道方式让该法案的反对者们非常生气——因为媒体们总是把移民改革这样复杂议题的争论简化为对非法移民获得公民身份和保卫边境议题的支持率的衡量。

This bias is evident in a recent Quinnipiac poll, which gave voters three choices with respect to illegal immigrants currently living in the United States: 1) They should be allowed to stay and apply for citizenship, 2) They should be allowed to stay, but not apply for citizenship, and 3) They should be required to leave the country. A majority of voters (54 percent) chose the first option over the other two (12 percent and 28 percent, respectively), in line with most polling on the issue.

这样的偏见在最近的Quinnipiac投票中表现的很明显,这个投票给投票者关于非法移民现在居住在美国的三个选项:1)他们应该留下并且申请公民身份。2)他们应该留下·,但是不申请公民身份。3)他们应该离开国家。第一个选项有54%的支持率,第二、三选项则分别是12%和28%,与其他民意调查结果相一致。

But the 1,200-page bill the Senate passed last month does far more than offer illegal immigrants the opportunity to apply for citizenship. As most opponents of that bill would argue, the pathway to citizenship is, if anything, a secondary issue; they are more concerned about the bill’s near-immediate legalization of illegal immigrants before any security or enforcement benchmarks must be met. Some suspect this part of the bill is more important to Democrats than the pathway to citizenship, which they can always negotiate later. Legal status, on the other hand, once granted, will almost surely never be revoked.

然而最近参院通过的1200页的法案所涉内容远远超过给非法移民转为公民所提供机会这一议题。该法案大部分存在争议,归化路径倒沦为次要问题;他们更在意的是法案使得非法移民合法化立即起效,任何必要的安全和压力评估反而被忽略。有人怀疑该法案的部分内容对民主党更为重要,而不是归化路径问题,这些问题延后搓商不迟。移民合法地位一旦确立,也就是说,几乎不可能撤销了。
A few polls have sought to gauge public opinion on a related question, more central to the structure of a comprehensive immigration bill — whether or not illegal immigrants should be granted legal status before any concrete security and enforcement measures are in place. The results are fairly consistent: A Fox Newspoll released in April found that 68 percent of voters, including 66 percent of Democrats, “want new border security measures to be completed before changes to immigration policies.” A Rasmussen survey in May found similar support (66 percent) for a “border security first” approach. And a survey from GOP pollster John McLaughlin earlier this month found that 60 percent of Hispanics think illegal immigrants should be given legal status only after a goal of stopping 90 percent of illegal immigration has been achieved.

几项展开的民调试图在有关问题方面测试公众的意见,这些问题多集中于一种综合移民法案的结构——在任何可靠的安全和压力测试到位之前,要不要给非法移民提供合法公民地位。调查结果相当一致:福克斯新闻民调四月份发布的结果显示百分之68的人,包括百分之66的民主党支持者,“要求在移民政策改革之前要完成边界安全评估”。一项五月份的Rasmussen 调查表明大约百分之66支持“边界安全优先”。来自GOP(注:大佬党,共和党)民调人士约翰麦克劳林本月前所做的一份调查显示百分之60的西班牙语系人群认为:在阻止百分之90的非法移民目标达成之前,不该赋予非法移民以合法地位。
The Gang of Eight rejected efforts to incorporate such a trigger into the law as unreasonable, and according to the Congressional Budget Office, their bill, even with the new border-surge components, would only reduce future illegal immigration by somewhere from 33 to 50 percent. Rasmussen recently asked likely voters if they would support a bill that would provide legal status to illegal immigrants while reducing future illegal immigration by half. Only 39 percent said yes.

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Post time 2013-9-2 17:13:05 |Display all floors
八人长老会议(注:口头语,指参院两党组成的八人小组)不合理地拒绝把这项前提条款加入法案,据国会预算办公室的信息显示,他们的法案当中,甚至border-surge方案部分,也只是打算削减百分之33至百分之50的预期非法移民配额。Rasmussen最近询问有投票意图的人群,如果削减一半非法移民配额,是否支持给非法移民合法身份的法案。只有百分之39的人回答支持。

There has been almost no discussion in the mainstream media about the Senate bill’s changes to our legal-immigration system. The bill would, according to the CBO, admit 16 million more legal immigrants over the next ten years that under current law (which will admit 22 million). Many of those immigrants would be on the lower end of the skill spectrum, and the CBO projects that this “influx” of low-skilled, low-wage, and in some cases temporary workers would reduce average wages and increase unemployment over the next decade. (Yes, it’s true that CBO shows wages rising after 2024, but one wonders if there aren’t ways to reform the immigration system that might avoid a decade’s worth of wage stagnation.)
关于这个众议院通过的新的议案对现有的移民系统的影响,各大主流媒体几乎没有争议。据CBO预计,未来十年内,执行该法案将带来超过的1600万的合法移民,远低于现行法律下所将产生的数目(2200万)。由于这些移民大都属于低技能移民,CBO预计这将是一股廉工大流,接下来的十年,这支临时工大军可能会造成平均工资的降低及失业率的上升。(的确,CBO指出工资水平在2024年之后会有提升,但同时也有人质疑若没有对移民系统进行实效性的修改将无法避免为期十年的工资停滞)

What does the American public think about an immigration bill that would increase the number of legal immigrants? Most polls show that the position taken by the Gang of Eight is a remarkably unpopular one. According to a recent Gallup survey, only 23 percent of Americans think legal immigration should be increased, compared with 35 percent who said it should be decreased, and 40 percent who said the present level should be maintained. Only 22 percent of independents and just 29 percent of Democrats favored higher immigration levels.

那么,对于一个可能会增加移民人数的移民法案,美国公众又是怎么看待的呢?据大部分的民意调查结果来看,该法案显然不受欢迎。据最近的一次盖洛普民意调查显示,相对于35%的要求减少移民量及40%认为应该保持目前水平的数据而言,只有23%的美国人认为应该增加合法移民。同时只有22%的独立党派人士及29%的民主党人员赞成增加移民人数。

The bill provides for higher levels of legal high-skilled immigration, too, an issue a National Journal poll from late June specifically asked about. The results were roughly the same: Increasing the number of visas for high-skilled immigrants was the least popular position, at just 22 percent support, compared with 24 percent of people favoring a decrease, and 47 percent saying current levels should be maintained. Polls asking specifically about low-skilled immigration are hard to come by, if they exist at all, but one imagines that support for increasing the number of low-skilled workers allowed into the country, which the Gang of Eight bill would do, would not be very high. But no one’s asking.
该议案同时也对高技术移民开了方便之门,而此措施是否妥当则作为一个具体问题出现在一个六月底的国民杂志发布的调查问卷中。结果与低技能移民的调查大致相同:此政策显然也不受欢迎,相比于24%的人期待减少移民量及47%的民众希望维持原状,只有22%的支持率。所有的调查都显示低技能移民是很难实现的。即使他们能够进入美国,也有人指出关于the Gang of Eight法案所提出的增加这股低能移民潮的人数这一预想所能得到的支持也将微乎其微。但是也并没有调查问卷有涉及到这一问题。

National Journal published another poll on July 17 under the highly misleading headline, “Americans Want Congress to Pass the Senate Immigration Bill.” In fact, only 29 percent of respondents said that the bill should be passed as is, which is what President Obama and members of the Gang of Eight (excluding Marco Rubio) are asking the House to do. Just 29 percent. A slightly greater number (30 percent) said tougher border-security provisions should be added before passage, and 13 percent said they would support passage if the pathway to citizenship were removed. Twenty percent of those polled opposed the passage of any immigration-reform legislation at all.
国家周刊7月17日公布了在极具误导性的标题“美国人想让国会通过参议院移民法案”下的另一个民调。实际上,只有29%的受访者认为这个法案应该被通过,正如Obama总统和the Gang of Eight 成员(不包括Marco Rubio)要求众议院做的。仅29%的人认为严格的边境安全规定应该被先行通过,13%的人表示如果公民身份的途径被撤销,他们将会支持此法案。20%的受访者反对任何形式的移民改革法案。

Of course, it’s hard to impute any real significance to polls that ask about support for the Senate bill itself, as opposed to its various provisions, since most voters don’t actually know what’s in the bill (even the people who supposedly wrote it aren’t entirely sure).
当然,将任何实际意义归因于民调是很难的,是参议院的法案自身需要得到支持,而不是它的各种规定。而大多数选民并不清楚法案的内容。(甚至那些所谓的撰写者也不完全确定法案的内容是什么)

And when it comes to political calculations, there is always the question of voter priorities. Polling suggests that most Americans, and even most Hispanic voters, do not consider immigration reform to be a pressing issue compared with the economy or health care. According to the June National Journal poll, 42 percent of Americans said a lawmaker’s support for a bill that includes a path to citizenship would not affect their decision to vote for that person — 33 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for someone, and just 21 percent said it would make them more likely to. Meanwhile, polling indicates that Democrats from red states who supported the Gang of Eight bill could face a political backlash over their votes.
当谈到政治算计,就总会有选民优先考虑的问题。民调显示,与经济和医疗保障相比,大多数美国人,甚至西班牙裔选民并不把移民改革看作是一个紧迫的问题。根据6月国家周刊民调,42%的人认为一个立法者对法案的支持包括公民身份的途径不会影响他们的投票决定——33%的人认为这会使他们不倾向于投票给某人,只有21%的人认为这会使他们更愿意投某人的票。同时,民调显示,来自红州(有支持共和党传统的州)的支持the Gang of Eight 法案的民主党人会面临由于选票体现的政治上的激烈反应。

In the coming months, Democrats and the media will suggest that House Republicans face almost an absolute political imperative to pass some modified form of the Senate immigration plan. But the question of whether the American people’s attitudes support such pressure will likely remain unexamined.
在接下来的几个月中,民主党人和媒体将暗示众议院共和党人面临一个几乎无条件的政治命令来通过参议院移民计划的某些改进形式。但问题在于,美国人民的态度是否支持这种压力仍是未经权衡的。

来源:龙腾网

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