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A follow up to Bing's [China should highly promote nuke modernization]... [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2011-12-3 17:47:40 |Display all floors
This post was edited by edisonone at 2011-12-3 01:50

China may have 3,000 nuclear warheads: US report

China may have 3,000 nuclear warheads: US report
Georgetown students shed light on China’s tunnel system for nuclear weapons
China 'hiding up to 3,000 nuclear warheads in secret tunnels'
More Tunnels, Yes. More Chinese Nukes? Could Be

The arms control community loves to point to Jeffery Lewis’ ArmsControlWonk.Com where Jeffery debunks estimates that include large numbers of Chinese nuclear weapons. Except the issue is more complicated than Jeffery lets on. In fact, a little digging by a commenter on ArmControlWonk.Com shows that China really could have in the neighborhood of 3,000 nuclear weapons. Of course, no one knows the real answer because China won’t tell us.


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My wild arsed guess is that we should now have around 5000 warheads -- not 3000 -- and, probably, the very up-to-date state of the arts and most efficient means of delivering up to 60% of it far, wide, and nearby if this http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/1494176/Chinese-general-threatens-nuclear-attack-on-US-in-war-of-words.html  is any teltale sign. I mean you don't say things like that unless you are confident of yourself. In early 2001, an overseas Chinese exchange student at Singapore U assessed that China should have in the neighborhood of around 2400 in her stockpile.



Putin's a killer. This was the claim made by Fox News journalist; Bill O'Reilly during his recent interview with Donald Trump. Trump's reply came in the form of a simple question. What, you think our country's so innocent?

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Post time 2011-12-3 20:08:34 |Display all floors
According to NUM J. (1996), « Denuclearisation in North-West and South-East Asia », China had 300 nuclear warheads in 1996.

According to geostratege NICQUET V., in his article « La stratégie nucléaire de la république populaire de chine » (nuclear strategy of the P.R.C.) published on stratisc dot org, China had, at most, 2350 warheads in its arsenal in 2006. His sources were coming from inside the chinese defense department.

I think the reality must now be around 2500 warheads, and probably the latest quality. As mentioned earlier, it's more than enough to destroy the planet several time around.
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Post time 2011-12-4 13:22:01 |Display all floors
MisterPanda Post time: 2011-12-3 04:08
According to NUM J. (1996), « Denuclearisation in North-West and South-East Asia », China had 300  ...

given china's exponential growth since 2001 where a singapore u student audit had given that china should have around 2400 at the time, her inventory to date, thus, have to doubled that which is 5000.
Putin's a killer. This was the claim made by Fox News journalist; Bill O'Reilly during his recent interview with Donald Trump. Trump's reply came in the form of a simple question. What, you think our country's so innocent?

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Post time 2011-12-4 17:23:13 |Display all floors
This post was edited by MisterPanda at 2011-12-4 17:23
edisonone Post time: 2011-12-4 13:22
given china's exponential growth since 2001 where a singapore u student audit had given that china ...

Excuse me to believe a world renowned geostratege over a singapore student...
Anyways, quantity doesn't matter as much as quality, China has enough nukes to destroy the world.
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Post time 2011-12-4 19:52:19 |Display all floors
NUKES

The worlds super military powers deterrent systems. What size hammer would you say it takes to crack open a nut? Do you suppose one would require a forty ton press?

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Post time 2011-12-4 20:31:03 |Display all floors
lotusfly7 Post time: 2011-12-4 19:52
NUKES

The worlds super military powers deterrent systems. What size hammer would you say it takes t ...

Jean-Claude Van Damme : "I can crack open a nut with my buttocks"

Would Jean-Claude Van Damme make a good substitute for the nuclear weapon ?
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Post time 2011-12-4 22:41:43 |Display all floors
MisterPanda Post time: 2011-12-4 01:23
Excuse me to believe a world renowned geostratege over a singapore student...
Anyways, quantity doe ...

Quantity vs quality:

Not really. Both properties are essential for a country's survival.

For example if say only 10% is given as the survival rate for the various means of delivery, and I believe we must take this figure into account because of the following...

[We must allow missile shields/abm systems the benefit of the doubt and assume that it does and can do what it was designed to do and, we must allow for margins of error, i.e., mechanical failures, strays, miss's etc.; to take its toll 10% is my guesstimate for the survival rate.]

Given the above, and if as western whishy washy claims that we have only 300 nukes, the computation/audit would break then it down like this: 1/4 for theater/battle field operations; 1/4 for short range (coastal) operations; 1/4 to serve as 2-3000 mile intermediate range deterrence's; and the remainder in the intercontinental range deterrences category and, if with only 10% of this number is survivable, that would give us roughly 2.5 - 3 only missiles that's capable of serving truly as deterrence.  Not very deterring if you ask me?

And, for this General to so confidently state that hundreds of cities would be destroyed in return if China was attacked, I will have to assume then that his message is from the very top (otherwise heads will roll in China for making such stupid statements) and that, my opinion, is in no uncertain terms China's way of saying she have what it takes to do it if forces upon her.

Hence 10% of 2500 is 250 or, 10% of 5000 is 500, and you break the latter down into 1/4's, the logical calculations confirms or balances out the numbers [hundreds of cities will be destroyed in return if China is under direct attack] that this Chinese General had stated.

I suspect that that was the whole idea/strategy behind the USSR's 10,000 nuke inventory philosophy from way back... She have to put the US, Western Europe (NATO), and she have to put China into the nuke equation, 10,000 nukes hence is not at all an overkill.
  
Putin's a killer. This was the claim made by Fox News journalist; Bill O'Reilly during his recent interview with Donald Trump. Trump's reply came in the form of a simple question. What, you think our country's so innocent?

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