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Reply #1 yuan_zcen's post
It's hard to say.|
It could go a few ways...
(1) There is plenty of weapons now in Mesopotamia. There are three tribes living there, Kurds, Shiates, Sunnis.
(2) The Sunnis traditionally are the NATIONALIST, and they are keen to use FORCE if necessary to control Mesopotamia, the Shia has Basra, the Kurd, Kirkuk...both are large crude oil and gas producing area. The Shia government is likely to face oppositiion, thus civil war.
(3) All three faction has their foreign backers in Russia/Turkey, Persia, Arab-GCC world.
I do believe a CIVIL WAR will break out.
We know the crude oil fields are largely in Basra....Kuwait...and then Eastern Seaboard of Saudi Arabia.
Outbreak of violence could spread quickly.
This could threaten JAPAN, KOREA and Taiwan. China would not be so seriously affected.
(Mr. Obama must have just calculated, he is anti war, and he needs to save money for the American people, he might not want to know the consequence of instability)
Luckily, Japan, China, Korea is expanding, even subsidizing new crude oil production in Central Asia, Russia and Brazil.
We might need to help the Arab-GCC protect their borders....but it's unlikely a Shia government in Mesopotamia will be tolerated.