Author: kodama

China heading for recession? [Copy link] 中文

Post time 2008-11-30 21:18:02 |Display all floors
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Post time 2008-11-30 23:57:39 |Display all floors
ZG,

I disagree, which is why I think volume v. value is important (note to Peter: I can read quite well and know enough to recognize that Xinhua like other papers tends to confuse the two, citing "volume" when the issue is value rather than tonnage). The critical point is that the commodity bubble also burst, so even if volume fell, net export value could still rise.

Also: if what they're talking about is tonnage, for sure, it's a meaningless figure because no one gives two damns that you shipped four hundred bajillion tons, they only care if it's tons of something worthwhile.
"Justice prevails... evil justice."

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Post time 2008-12-1 16:57:58 |Display all floors
there's still a lot of development that can be done while the western economic crisis is going on, a lot of work force could be redirected to irrigation and re-forrestation and better energy resources like nuclear energy

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Post time 2008-12-1 17:00:55 |Display all floors

seems

thread owner CANNOT READ

10% is CHINA GDP forecasted for 2009
What's on your mind now........ooooooooooooooo la la....Kind Regards

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Post time 2008-12-5 15:14:17 |Display all floors
Originally posted by caringhk at 2008-12-1 17:00
thread owner CANNOT READ

10% is CHINA GDP forecasted for 2009


GDP forecasts are unreliable in this kind of environment. I doubt they're factoring in the kind of problems that likely loom in 2009 for China.

Originally posted by peterb at 2008-11-30 18:22


There's more to China than the textile sweatshops of Guangdong.

No factory closures here in Wuhan, in fact the opposite; its fibre-optics based hitech industry is growing and taking on more  ...


I think you should look up things like systemic risk and financial contagion. The fact one region is doing well doesn't mean it will keep doing well. The economy is inter-connected. China doesn't have a deposit insurance system and that means a bank failure leaves a lot of people without any money. A lot of banks have been loaning out to the export-dependent companies and are naturally involved in the property markets. Tech is likely to be resilient for a while, but I don't expect it to last.  It may not suffer as much as some industries but a decline is fairly likely as other things move down.

If any of the tech companies you're referring to get loans from or have money in some of the banks who are going to get hit with loan defaults it could take them instantly from a strong industry to a suffering one. Also bank failures cause other problems like a tightening credit market if the failures are big or pervasive enough.

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Post time 2008-12-5 15:33:33 |Display all floors
Originally posted by kodama at 2008-12-5 15:14


GDP forecasts are unreliable in this kind of environment. I doubt they're factoring in the kind of problems that likely loom in 2009 for China.



I think you should look up things like sys ...



are you coming from MARS????

China have injected USD586 bils while USA NONE  & still CRYING out loud
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Post time 2008-12-5 15:46:56 |Display all floors
Originally posted by zglobal at 2008-11-23 08:17


Well, the root of the problem is...

China has been producing for America for decades.
America has been over consuming for decades.

Not only has China been producing for America but has a ...


So America will think of making more: Printing more notes or Making a finacial war

China is his the next objective...

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