Author: laoxianggg

Friends in Sichuan [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2008-5-18 21:53:15 |Display all floors
Originally posted by rovi297 at 2008-5-18 03:33 AM

JL, do you have any comments on that?

Yes,我有话说,但是现在不说!(句子版权属于 Li P.)



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Post time 2008-5-19 00:09:45 |Display all floors

TEST

【转贴】现在好像“地震预报”或“耿国庆”之类的字成敏感词了

我在新浪博客上写了一篇讨论预测地震的文章,两天之后,发现有键误,
进去改了一下,重贴时,被告知有敏感字,需要审查,我等了几个小时
之后,见没有结果,就重贴了一次,中间加了很多干扰字符,比如“地
#震#预#测”之类,没想到,贴出后那篇经审查的帖子又通过了审查。

结果,两篇内容同样的文章都在博客里挂了两天,今天打开一看,有干
扰符号的文章被删了,没有干扰符号的还挂在那里。

现在的官府真是越来越脆弱了。

这里没有问题。


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Post time 2008-5-19 01:34:36 |Display all floors

这是一个警号,但不等于是预报

中国、欧洲、美国三方地质科学家联合发出的警号,有关部门似乎并未给予应有的关注,预先采取一些长期的防灾减灾措施,而不是等到发生了才手忙脚乱。

Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago
Kevin Holden Platt in Beijing
for National Geographic News

May 16, 2008

Just ten months before a deadly earthquake struck Sichuan Province's Beichuan county on May 12, a scientific study warned that the Chinese region was ripe for a major quake.

After examining satellite images and conducting on-the-ground inspections of deep, active faults in Sichuan Province for more than a decade, scientists issued a warning.

"The faults are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard," the Chinese, European, and U.S. geoscientists wrote in the mid-July 2007 edition of the journal Tectonics.

They concluded that clashing tectonic forces were growing in Beichuan, ready to burst in an e x p l o s i o n of seismic energy.

With precision and what now seems like eerie foresight, the researchers charted the active faults on multicolored maps of Beichuan, which turned out to be the epicenter of the recent earthquake.

"As far as I know, this is the only investigation of these active faults," said study co-author Michael Ellis of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis in Tennessee.

The magnitude 7.9 quake that struck on May 12 almost entirely leveled parts of Sichuan Province. Chinese officials today estimated that the death toll would reach 50,000 and that nearly five million people are homeless.

"Locked in a Journal"

There is little reason to believe Chinese officials were aware of the July 2007 report, or that it would have made much difference if they had been.

"We had certainly identified the potential of these active faults," Ellis said. "But that information was effectively locked in an academic journal."

Ellis hopes that replacing the collapsed buildings with earthquake-proof structures could prevent future tragedies.

"I've been to these little towns [before the quake]," Ellis said. "Most of the houses are built of unreinforced masonry, and you can see little brick factories all around this area.

"It is more expensive to build earthquake-proof structures," he added. And the vast majority of people in Sichuan Province are anything but rich.

The Science Behind the Quake

Earthquake activity is nothing new in Beichuan.

"We have shown evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes along the Beichuan fault since 12,000-13,000 years ago," Ellis and colleagues reported last summer.

Speaking with National Geographic News, Ellis said, "Ultimately, the [2008] earthquake is related to the continuing and inexorable collision of India with Asia, which is occurring at a rate of about 20 to 22 milimeters per year."

This collision started more than 50 million years ago, when the tectonic plate beneath India crashed into the Eurasian plate.

"The Himalayas and all of T i b e t was created by this collision," Ellis added.

As the Indian plate continues its slow-motion crash into Asia—sometimes in jerks marked by earthquakes—it is pushing the entire T i b e t a n Plateau northward.

"This earthquake was the T i b e t a n mountains moving east over the plains of Chengdu [the capital of Sichuan Province]," said Roger Bilham, a geoscientist at the University of Colorado who was not involved in the July 2007 study.

Not Just Sichuan's Problem

Study co-author Ellis said that, as the T i b e t a n Plateau moves northward, "the interior parts of T i b e t are collapsing, rather like a soufflé taken out of the oven into cold air."

Faults along the southern, Himalayan edge of T i b e t present hazards as great as those underlying the Sichuan temblor, Ellis said.

"Risk associated with the loss of collateral and lives is very high along the Himalaya, because so many people live there or immediately downstream," Ellis added.

"The risk is similarly high in Sichuan [to the east], because of the population and, like India and Nepal, the relatively poor building standards," he said.

And as India continues to pound into T i b e t, "it is still creating new fault lines"—and new dangers.



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rovi297 has been deleted
Post time 2008-5-19 08:31:22 |Display all floors
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Post time 2008-5-19 11:44:57 |Display all floors

默 哀

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Post time 2008-5-20 05:38:42 |Display all floors

默哀的同时我们也必须认清谁是真正的“杀人凶手”...

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Post time 2008-5-20 07:40:38 |Display all floors
Originally posted by rovi297 at 2008-5-19 05:38 PM

国家地理:科学家1年前就发出地震预警

本文来自于美国的国家地理杂志National Geographic

原文见楼上 #87.

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