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Rising Russia ( to be world's 6th biggest economy) [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2008-6-11 00:55:55 |Display all floors

A Rising Russia

Putin's number one objective is to make Russia a superpower again. That will take some time and will be restricted by many factors. One of them being Russia's own declining population growth.

China's increasing immigrants to Russia's Far East regions, a large part of which was grabbed from China,  will make themselves felt in the future of the geopolitical landscape there.

[ Last edited by xinghai at 2008-6-11 01:01 AM ]

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Post time 2008-6-13 17:47:23 |Display all floors
Originally posted by kodama at 2008-6-9 03:52
It's not really a matter of need, it rarely is. All empire-building stems from a desire for security. Russia's economic security requires Europe to continue consuming its energy,  which means they can't be getting energy from other nations.

No. BTW, only 40% of gas and only 25% of oil (including oil products) Europe gets from Russia.
And we do not trying to increase this market share.

Europe needs energy, so they needs us, not otherwise.

We will sell our energy to China, meeting their demands. We don't need to make China somehow "dependent", energy needs everywhere, if China will refuse, we can find other customers.

That either means those nations which would supply them energy have to somehow be made to work with Russia or Russia has to dominate that nation's energy or control the routes needed to supply that energy.

Yes, sure. If i have something you need and nobody else have it, i'll be dominating on your market.

First of all you're saying "Russia becomes more confrontational" assuming this is the same for China and US are same country.
You'd see I was specifically referring to the U.S. if you looked harder. My point was that Americans fears will shift away from China. Also consider what happens when problems with North Korea and problems over Taiwan are resolved. The U.S. won't have much reason to keep its forces in the area and with problem popping up elsewhere in the world it's likely we'll move out of East Asia, thus removing another problem between the U.S. and China.

US will never live peacefully with nation that stronger than US.
It's an Empire and Great Empire always needs Great Enemy. :)

US have "national interests" :) everywhere in world, and when those interests will conflict with Chinese ones, US will recognize it as enemy. It's only way how it can be. America's imperialism can't have something that not under American control, this is essential for very existence of US. Look to Cuba, Belarus or even Kirghizia... they need put their hands everywhere.
Only reason why you peaceful toward China: China is major supplier of cheap products to your market and US controls big part of production there.

And... can you tell what kind of neo-colonialism is here?
Typically when we talk neo-colonialism it refers to the dominance of certain corporations. Certainly Gazprom taking over Serbia's state-run energy company has some element of that neo-colonialism.

So US is a kind of hyper neo-colonialist? :) Anyway, americans has own more factories in China, than Russia will ever will, isn't it? :)

And in Serbia: no, it's not neo-colonialism. It's only way for Serbia get guarantied energy supply. If somebody owns a company, he's interested that company runs smoothly. Gazprom is only option in this region.


[quote]
This is just perfect sample of american's lie.

How is it a lie?
[/quote]
Direct and obvious.

Russian officials have threatened Georgia and Ukraine over the possibility of NATO membership.
With Georgia specifically they've threatened to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the comments from those regions and Russia strongly suggest or even outright state the end result will be their incorporation into Russia.

Please stop lying. Show me ANY words of Russian official, who ever claims Russia will incorporate Abkhazia. ANY.
Please use credible source (not western media).

...once i was shocked, when saw on US media something like "utin says he will target missiles to Ukraine". I find a source of those words... and i know what exactly Putin says. He says "it's something to hard imagine Ukraina and Russia target each other with missiles!"
In westerns media they put it upside down. It's not "lost in translation", it's just direct lie. Lie everywhere about Russia.

[quote]Man... can you just look to the world map? Do you know where Abkhazia is situated?
Then tell me, what  "limiting routing options" for Europe can be related to Abkhazia?

Abkhazia is most of Georgia's Black Sea coast. Granted, Georgia isn't really using it, but annexing Abkhazia would allow Russia to permanently deny that coastal area to Georgia.
[/quote]
Wait... I ask you an understandable (i think it is) question: what  "limiting routing options" for Europe can be related to Abkhazia?
It has borders with Russia and Georgia only and isolated by mountains. Main Georgian traffic goes though Batumi port, and it can't be isolated even if somebody want to; oil pipes and all Georgian industrial are there.

So, once again: what  "limiting routing options" for Europe can be related to Abkhazia?

Can you answer it? Or just say: yes, i was lying here?

By taking Ukraine's black sea coast

How it can be possible - to "take Ukraine's black sea coast" without war? Even Krimea isn't all Ukraine's Black Sea coastline.
Do you thinking on what you saying at all?

Do your words and "geopolitical constructions" :) somehow depends on reality? At all?
Did you in your life ever saw a map?

It's still here:
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q& ... F8&ll=44.995883,35.551758&spn=11.325659,25.180664&z=6

would also eliminate one key destination for such supplies and provide Russia a very nice little route of their own leading directly to Southeastern Europe completely under their control.

No, it's not.

I'm not sure what your point is. Does that somehow make it OK to carve them up?
[quote]
I think, it's a bad thing - to provoke revolutions in other countries, to setup there governments that makes bad thing both for nation and it's relations.

[quote]
I wasn't suggesting something so bold. Russia has very strong ties with India and former Soviet states in Central Asia. They're expanding their ties throughout the region. I don't think China would take kindly to Russia trying to boss them around while at the same time expanding its footprint in China's neighbors, including some with a history of hostility towards China.

I think it can be discussed with Cine and without US help. :)
And anyway, it's not like Taiwan, isn't it? :)

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Post time 2008-6-16 14:03:04 |Display all floors
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Post time 2008-6-16 14:11:34 |Display all floors
Originally posted by huang262 at 2008-6-16 14:03
That's a clever myth that the Americans want everybody else to believe. They timed their entry into both World Wars to get maximum political mileage while giving as little as possible in return. They waited until the Brits, French and Germans have beaten each other to pulp before stepping into WW1. Then they waited again until Russia had almost defeated Germany before entering WW2. After that they employed the mass media to broadcast about their "heroic" efforts at Normandy while ignoring the 30 million lives Russia sacrificed to beat Hitler. Very cunning indeed.  


Deceitful, more like!

Then  Hollywood kick into action by making hundreds of films showing the cowardly American soldiers as heroes.
This is then watched by the dumb Americans who think that it was fact.
Even today, the average American citizen wouldn't even be able to tell you that the Russians won the war.

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Post time 2008-6-17 02:06:24 |Display all floors
Originally posted by aleksei at 2008-6-13 17:47

No. BTW, only 40% of gas and only 25% of oil (including oil products) Europe gets from Russia.
And we do not trying to increase this market share.

Europe needs energy, so they needs us, not otherwise.

We will sell our energy to China, meeting their demands. We don't need to make China somehow "dependent", energy needs everywhere, if China will refuse, we can find other customers.


Russia's economy is highly dependent on the energy market. As such maintaining its dominance in certain energy markets is an economic necessity. Several Russian officials have basically acknowledged this obvious fact. They can pursue other markets, but that doesn't mean they'll stop their pursuits in another. In fact it is more likely they will simply try to dominate other markets and increase their economic prosperity.

Also only 40% is kind of a silly thing to say. It also doesn't accurately represent the circumstances either because several nations are almost 100% dependent on Russia and others have the vast majority of their energy from Russia.

Yes, sure. If i have something you need and nobody else have it, i'll be dominating on your market.


Actually my point was that Russia will simply take control or get those countries to work with them. Algeria is a case in point. Algeria supplies another substantial chunk of European natural gas and recently Russia signed an agreement for them to cooperate on supplying energy to Europe including allowing Gazprom to penetrate into some new markets in Southern Europe. Russia's has also been pushing for a natural gas cartel which would include all the biggest natural gas producers.

US will never live peacefully with nation that stronger than US.
It's an Empire and Great Empire always needs Great Enemy.


That's a ridiculously simplistic way of viewing things. The U.S. sided with China many times in the past due to a common enemy. That is what I was saying will happen. The common enemy would be Russia. China sides with Russia because currently they agree on most things, but that will start changing. U.S. relations will improve as we move out of East Asia.

Only reason why you peaceful toward China: China is major supplier of cheap products to your market and US controls big part of production there.


That's not why I'm peaceful toward China, but that does play into America's behavior. In fact, it's a significant reason why there will never be a war between us. China wants to sell to us, and we want to buy from them. For now its basic industrial products but things will shift once more. Soon we'll be buying Chinese cars and Chinese computers. Not simply made in China, but designed in China by the Chinese.

So US is a kind of hyper neo-colonialist?


Well, yes.

And in Serbia: no, it's not neo-colonialism. It's only way for Serbia get guarantied energy supply. If somebody owns a company, he's interested that company runs smoothly. Gazprom is only option in this region.


Oh, so it's only neocolonialism if the U.S. does it right? Surely if ExxonMobil was buying up NIS you'd be all over that calling it neocolonialism.

Direct and obvious.


That doesn't answer my question. Russia did threaten to recognize breakaway regions in Georgia and did threaten to take Eastern Ukraine. Putin said if Ukraine joins NATO then Ukraine will "cease to be a state" because Ukraine will be divided in two like Czechoslovakia. There are secessionists in Eastern Ukraine who would be more than happy with that and long to unify with mother Russia.

Please stop lying. Show me ANY words of Russian official, who ever claims Russia will incorporate Abkhazia. ANY.


I said comments from Russia and breakaway regions suggest or outright state. In South Ossetia particularly the suggestions are very strong as they want to unify with North Ossetia and they have on many occasions said they do not mind if it is as part of Russia. If believe officials from North Ossetia have said this as well. Funny, that you don't discount their threats to recognize.

Wait... I ask you an understandable (i think it is) question: what  "limiting routing options" for Europe can be related to Abkhazia?


I answered your question. By permanently denying a significant chunk of Georgia's coast to Georgia it limits their options. Certainly the port of Sukhumi being lost would of significant detriment as it seriously impedes Georgia's chances of expanding its operations. Also it would limit their sea transport as Russia would control the waters ff Abkhazia.

How it can be possible - to "take Ukraine's black sea coast" without war? Even Krimea isn't all Ukraine's Black Sea coastline.


Who said it would be without war?

However, Russia could easily seize Crimea and that would make it all the easier to seize the rest. Ukraine can not match Russian power.

Do you thinking on what you saying at all?

Did you in your life ever saw a map?


Yes I have seen a map and I can easily identify where Crimea is as well as the rest of Ukraine. I'm even roughly aware of the parts which would be considered Eastern Ukraine. Do you think because I'm an American I don't know where anything is on a map?

No, it's not.


How is it not?

I think, it's a bad thing - to provoke revolutions in other countries, to setup there governments that makes bad thing both for nation and it's relations.


That didn't answer my question. Does that make it ok to carve those countries up?

I think it can be discussed with Cine and without US help. :)
And anyway, it's not like Taiwan, isn't it? :)


India is worse than Taiwan in the geopolitical way of things and they're still closer to Russia than the U.S. despite our fruitless attempts at wooing them. Never mind the U.S. backed Ma Ying-Jeou who wants to increase Taiwan's bonds to China.

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