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I think Iran miscalculated [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 1

Post time 2007-3-31 04:07:19 |Display all floors
She makes herself look bad by holding the British sailers hostage and making them say forced confessions even if they were in Iranian waters.   Iran had hoped to "win points" with the world prior to releasing the sailers, but so far it looks like she is losing points.....

Charge them as spies?  I think even Iran realizes this would be foolish and would lose them even more points in addition to endangering their own personnel all over the world for being charged as speis in retaliation.

Hold them as Prisoners of War?  That would mean Iran technically just declared war on Britain - unlikely.

I am sure they will be released (unless war should break out with Iran which I think is unlikely) and Iran is trying to figure out how to win some points in world opinion before she releases them.  The problem is she has lost so many points already, all the British have to do is keep silent at this point (and keep the Mericans out of it) and Iran will have no way win points back.  And the longer they keep them the worse it makes Iran look.

Iran is really backing themselves into a corner.  You don't hear ANYONE publicly supporting their position - even Syria and the other Arab states are remaining silent........

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Rank: 6Rank: 6

Post time 2007-3-31 06:16:04 |Display all floors
Iran has no history of miscalculation.

In 1979 Iranian students seized 53 American hostages from the US Embassy in Tehran and held them 444 days until Ronad Reagan was sworn in.  In 1985 Iran secretly negotiated for the purchase of American weapons which included an effort to gain the release of American hostages in Beruit.  The Reagan administration took the extra money from the sale of the weapons and funded a secret war in Nicarauga against the explicit direction  of congress.  It was subsequently known as the Iran-Contra deal.

America used to contain Iran by bolstering Saddam's regime.  America even helped Saddam use poison gas against the Iranians in the 1983 battle of Basra.  Iranian teenagers were sent to over-run the strategically important city, and US Marines aimed the gas canisters so that Saddam's army would not learn how to aim poison gas.  (Apparently, it is something that you do not want to have blow back onto you.)  

Now Saddam is gone, and Iran has 15 UK hostages.  

Who do you think is going to get the better of the other?

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2007-3-31 07:59:55 |Display all floors

All Huffs but no Puffs.

Iran has brought the bully boys to heel. They have the 15 sailors and you have the jitters. What is Britain going to do about it if these 15 are not released without an apology ? Bomb Tehran , start another " Shock & Awe " with the warmongers ? It has come to this has it ? Hot-air and finger wagging, threats and more threats. I am amused that Mark is even comfortable with " even if the sailors were in Iranian waters " !? It is OK if your warriors stomp all over other people's lands is it ? This is the 21st century my good chap, None of these " gun-boat " diplomacy and huff and puff please. It may come as a surprise to you but the bulk of the world have learned not to reward bullies by giving in.

Confucius said " Bullies know only the language of counter strength ".

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Rank: 4

Post time 2007-3-31 08:05:52 |Display all floors
You never know, there might very well be puffs.

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Rank: 4

Post time 2007-3-31 08:18:58 |Display all floors


I enjoyed watching Tony Blair in Parliament of late, especially, when he repeatedly called the arrest of the 15 British navy for illegal trespassing "unjustified".

Funny, how he "justify" his own acts (of Terror and illegal nabbing) as legitimate and others as "unjustified".


Btw, mark069, are "sailors" the same as those in the "navy"?

I think there is a difference and a HUGE difference.  :)

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Rank: 4

Post time 2007-3-31 08:20:19 |Display all floors
I think the most accurate term may be "seamen".

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2007-3-31 08:21:24 |Display all floors

Viagra for Vigour.

This is exactly what I mean. The sabre rattling and the swagger. Nothing worthwhile is likely to follow. We have just seen the same thing before the Iraqi invasion, Irish. Do you have a short memory or attention deficit ?  Britain is so poor she cannot afford to maintain here troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, let alone a new front in Iran.

All these jungle-jim chest thumping is good for the Tarzan movie but in reality, the omnipotent, omnimous threats have been found impotent in more than one instance. Calling " Viagra " quick !!  

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