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Nuclear Crisis, the ball is in China's court [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2006-10-10 09:20:57 |Display all floors
In the face of the Nuclear Crisis messed up by Kim, the American at heart will actually stay calm to it, despite the seemingly outcry to show their stance before the world. Coz the backward weapons of the N Korea will not deserve Americans' fear as they keep a remote distance from East Asia.
On the other hand, the Nuclear competition launched by N Korea facilitated Japan to amend his constitution and expand his armforce with the comprehensible reason. Moreover, it is possilble for Japan , S Korea, and even for Taiwan to develop the Nuclear Project following the precedent done by N Korea.

As Such, the loser turns out to be China. China has got embarrassed by the N Korea's rejection of Chinese lobbyist's proposal. So, contrary to the Angry Youth's eagarness to wage war against Japan and Taiwan, I am actually eagar to wage the war against N Korea who has the real threat towards China. In the name of pre-empted principle, for the sake of the peace of the neighbornood, China's invasion to N Korea must be a just cause recognized by the world. China can found her 35th province called the Autonomous Region of Inner Korea paralled to the ROK which Chinese will probably call outer Korea later.

[ Last edited by cantonboy at 2006-10-10 11:06 AM ]

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Post time 2006-10-10 10:39:42 |Display all floors

U.N. weighs sanctions against N. Korea

The world lined up against North Korea on Monday for staging a nuclear test denounced even by key allies. President Bush called it "a threat to international peace and security," and the U.N. Security Council weighed severe sanctions to punish the impoverished communist nation.

There was no talk of military action. But the Security Council quickly condemned North Korea's decision to flout a U.N. appeal to cancel the test after the reclusive regime announced it had set off an underground atomic explosion.

Russia was the only country to say it had "no doubts" over the North Korean claim. The U.S. and other experts said the explosion was smaller than expected and they had yet to confirm it was nuclear.

But the reaction of world governments reflected little doubt that they were treating the announcement as fact.

The 15-nation council urged Pyongyang to return to stalled talks, refrain from further tests and keep its pledge to scrap its clandestine weapons program.

Bush said the North Korean action "constitutes a threat to international peace and security" and requires "an immediate response" from the Security Council, though he stressed the U.S. remained committed to diplomacy.

The United States circulated a draft U.N. resolution late Monday that would condemn North Korea's nuclear test and impose tough sanctions on the reclusive communist nation for Pyongyang's "flagrant disregard" of the Security Council's appeal not to detonate a device.

The draft, obtained by The Associated Press, incorporates proposals circulated by the U.S. earlier in the day to prohibit all trade in military and luxury goods and prevent "any abuses of the international financial system" that could contribute to the transfer or development of banned weapons.

It adds new calls from Japan to ban all countries from allowing any North Korean ships in their ports or any North Korean aircraft from taking off or landing in their territory and to impose travel restrictions on high-ranking North Korean officials. The Japanese proposals would also create a Security Council committee to monitor implementation of the sanctions, and ask the secretary-general "to actively engage in this matter."

Japan's U.N. Ambassador Kenzo Oshima, the current council president, said earlier that all council members "emphasized that the response of the council should be strong, swift and very, very clear in its message and its action."

But just how long it will take members to agree on a resolution remains to be seen.

Council experts started discussing the proposals in meetings Monday afternoon and were expected to meet again Tuesday morning.

But it was unclear whether China and Russia — the North's closest allies — would support some of the tough measures, which also include international inspection of all cargo to and from North Korea to limit the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and to ban any material that could be used in the production of weapons of mass destruction.

Before the experts meeting, the ambassadors from the five veto-wielding council nations — the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China — met with Oshima.

U.S. Ambassador John Bolton told reporters afterward that everybody agreed within 30 minutes that the council should condemn the action and respond quickly, saying "that's remarkable" to have such a unanimous decision.

But he wouldn't speculate when the council might act, noting that Japan and others already had other suggestions for the text.

"The fact is that in our half-hour, full council meeting this morning, there was no one who even came close to defending this test by North Korea," Bolton said.

The United States, France, Britain and Japan want the resolution under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which deals with threats to international peace, breaches of the peace and acts of aggression. It allows the council to authorize measures ranging from breaking diplomatic ties and imposing economic and military sanctions to taking military action to restore peace.

With U.S. forces strapped by the twin wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Bush administration repeatedly has said it has no plans to invade North Korea and discussion of military action was absent on Monday.

Neither Russia nor China would say whether they support a resolution that could pave the way for sanctions.

"I think we have to react firmly," China's U.N. Ambassador Wang Guangya said. "But also I believe that on the other hand the door to solve this issue from a diplomatic point of view is still open."

Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said the North Koreans "will be facing a very serious attitude on the part of the Security Council and the entire international community," but he said the council needs to discuss whether that will include sanctions.

The reported test came one day after the ninth anniversary of reclusive North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's accession to power and a day before the 61st anniversary of the ruling North Korean Workers' Party.

AP Television News footage showed North Koreans going about their daily business and there were no signs of heightened alert by security forces in Pyongyang, hours after their government said it performed a nuclear weapons test.

People also laid flowers by a statue of Kim Il Sung, the current leader's father who died in 1994. Red flags of the party draped buildings and lampposts.

The test also coincided with the Security Council vote Monday to nominate South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon to succeed Kofi Annan as the next U.N. secretary-general. The 192-nation General Assembly is expected to approve the recommendation later this month.

Ban said one of his priorities, if approved, would be to work to resolve the North Korean crisis.

North Korea remained defiant. Pak Gil Yon, the North's U.N. ambassador, said the Security Council should congratulate the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, known as the DPRK, instead of passing "useless" resolutions or statements.

"The nuclear test in the DPRK will greatly contribute in increasing the world deterrence of the DPRK" and will contribute "to the maintenance and guarantee of peace and security in the peninsula and the region," he said.

The United States and its allies, and many of North Korea's neighbors, took the exact opposite view.

"This shows why we need actions and not just words about North Korea," Bolton told The Associated Press.

Although North Korea has long claimed it had the capability to produce a bomb, the test would be the first proof that it had done so.

If the test is confirmed, North Korea would join the current members of the nuclear club — the United States, Russia, Britain, France, India, Pakistan and China. Israel is widely believed to have the bomb but has not publicly declared.

A nuclear armed North Korea would dramatically alter the strategic balance of power in the Pacific region and would undermine already fraying global anti-proliferation efforts.

"The development and possession of nuclear weapons by North Korea will in a major way transform the security environment in North Asia and we will be entering a new, dangerous nuclear age," Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said at a news conference in Seoul after a summit with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun.

Abe, facing his first major foreign policy test since his recent election, called for a "calm yet stern response." Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso warned such a test would "severely endanger not only Northeast Asia but also the world stability."

South Korea said it had put its military on high alert, but it had noticed no unusual activity among North Korea's troops.

Bolton told the Security Council that Washington would consider an attack on Japan or South Korea an attack on the United States, according to U.N. diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity because the remarks were made at a closed council meeting.

The United States has defense agreements with the two Asian allies and thousands of U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea and Japan.

China said the North "defied the universal opposition of international society and flagrantly conducted the nuclear test" and urged the North to return to six-party nuclear disarmament talks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Cabinet that Moscow "certainly condemns the test conducted by North Korea."

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said the test was a "completely irresponsible act."

Only Iran, which also faces Security Council action over its disputed nuclear program, expressed understanding for North Korea's action.

Iranian state radio blamed the North's reported nuclear test on U.S. pressure, saying the test "was a reaction to America's threats and humiliation."

The North has refused for over a year to attend six-party international talks aimed at persuading it to disarm, demanding instead that the U.S. drop financial sanctions it has imposed to punish Pyongyang alleged counterfeiting and money laundering. It pulled out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2003 after U.S. officials accused it of a secret nuclear program, allegedly violating an earlier nuclear pact between Washington and Pyongyang.

Impoverished and isolated, North Korea has built up its military and nuclear programs while relying on foreign aid to feed its 23 million people since its state-run farming system collapsed in the 1990s following decades of mismanagement and the loss of Soviet subsidies.

South Korea said the nuclear test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. Monday (9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday) in Hwaderi near Kilju city on the northeast coast.

The North's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was successful, with no leak of radiation, and this was "a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great prosperous powerful socialist nation."

"It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the ... people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability," KCNA said. "It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it."

The North is believed to have enough radioactive material for a half-dozen bombs. It insists its nuclear program is necessary to deter a U.S. invasion.

The North has active missile programs, but it isn't believed to have an atomic bomb design small and light enough to be mounted on a long-range rocket that could strike targets as distant as the United States.

Reports about the size of the explosion were conflicting, ranging from South Korea's geological institute estimating it was the equivalent of 550 tons of TNT to Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov saying it was the equivalent of 5,000 to 15,000 tons of TNT.

A U.S. government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the political sensitivity of the situation, said the seismic event could have been a nuclear explosion, but its small size was making it difficult for authorities to pin down.

The U.S. Geological Survey said it recorded a magnitude 4.2 seismic event in the northeastern part of the country. Asian neighbors also said they registered a seismic event, and an official of South Korea's monitoring center said the magnitude 3.6 tremor wasn't a natural occurrence.

Japan dispatched three aircraft to waters between Japan and the Korean peninsula to monitor radiation levels, the Defense Agency said. Russia reported no increase in radiation levels in its Primorye territory, which borders North Korea.

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Post time 2006-10-10 11:25:52 |Display all floors

Angry China Likely to Toughen Korea Stand Somewhat

Angry China Likely to Toughen Korea Stand Somewhat

Angry China Likely to Toughen Korea Stand Somewhat
               
By JOSEPH KAHN
Published: October 10, 2006

BEIJING — China’s punctilious Foreign Ministry reserves the word hanran, which translates as brazen or flagrant, for serious affronts to the nation’s dignity by countries that have historically been rivals or enemies.

When the previous Japanese prime minister visited the Yasukuni Shrine, which China condemns as honoring Japan’s World War II-era militarism, he was described as “brazen.” When the United States bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999, Beijing called that act “flagrant.”

North Korea, a longstanding ideological ally, has had increasingly testy relations with China in recent years. But it was not until Monday, moments after North Korea apparently exploded a nuclear device, that China accused it of a “brazen” violation of its international commitments.

The wording is just one indication that a nuclear test would cross a red line for China, which has devoted years of painstaking diplomatic effort, and staked its delicate relationship with the United States, on the premise that it could deliver a peaceful, negotiated solution to the nuclear standoff with North Korea.

That policy, Chinese analysts say, seems to have failed, and North Korea’s action leaves Beijing little choice but to take a tougher approach. But Chinese leaders still see highly punitive sanctions as unpalatable and counterproductive, and the country’s elite remains sharply divided over how far to distance China from its neighbor, and how closely to embrace the Bush administration, several senior Chinese foreign policy experts said.

“Hanran” has been applied to North Korea for the first time. But Japan and the United States, which favor the sharpest response to North Korea’s test, have been “hanran” for years.

“China is disappointed and angry and will be willing to support stronger sanctions,” said Jin Canrong, a foreign policy expert at People’s University in Beijing. “But I think that is different from saying there will be a drastic change. It is still a question of the right balance.”

The reason there is unlikely to be a major policy change, Mr. Jin and other experts here said, is that North Korea has sharply increased tensions without fundamentally changing China’s calculation of its national interests.

Its priorities remain, first and foremost, promoting internal economic development, the key to longevity for the ruling Communist Party. China’s cautious, authoritarian leaders concluded long ago that generating high growth in its gross domestic product required a benign relationship with the world’s major powers, secure borders and open markets — in a word, stability.

China would like to achieve a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula but has shown few signs of accepting war or a forced change of government as an acceptable way to achieve that goal.

“The core of the issue is not nuclear weapons,” said Shen Dingli, a leading security expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. “The core of the issue is peace and stability. That is still strongly in China’s interest.”

While China has begun to think like a big power in some respects, its foremost strategic priority has been reclaiming Taiwan, or at least preventing the island from becoming formally independent of mainland China.

Conflict in North Korea or the toppling of Kim Jong Il’s government there could upset both of those goals, Chinese analysts say. A war is viewed as the worst outcome, potentially creating a wave of refugees into China and even risking a broader engagement that could threaten the extended period of harmony in Northeast Asia.

Even peaceful change in North Korea could bring a new pro-American government to China’s northeastern border as it faces continuing uncertainty over how to handle the pro-American government in Taiwan, off its southeastern coast.

“China must continue to look at North Korea through the prism of Taiwan,” Mr. Shen said. “You cannot expect China to abandon its ally completely while America continues to back Taiwan and allow the independence movement to thrive there.”

But analysts say it also cannot afford to alienate the United States, and Beijing has recently taken steps to repair its frayed relationship with Japan. Those ties may well depend on moving to punish North Korea for its nuclear test, and at least experimenting to see if firm pressure on North Korea will bring it back to the bargaining table.

China provides, by some estimates, 70 percent of North Korea’s fuel and food and could almost certainly create severe economic hardship there by slowing shipments across its long, barren border.

In addition, China has joined the United States in seeking to crack down on North Korean counterfeiting of American dollars and Chinese yuan, as well as on the use of Chinese banks to launder profits from illicit North Korean exports of drugs including amphetamines. Tighter financial sanctions could further deprive North Korea of already scarce hard currency.

The question is how far down that path China can go, to maintain its cooperation with the Bush administration without foreclosing the possibility of luring North Korea back to negotiations.

“China has tried to persuade North Korea that talking with the outside world is in its interest,” said Zhang Liangui, an expert on North Korea at the Central Party School, a research organization in Beijing run by the Communist Party. “Now China will have to demonstrate that there is a price to pay for ignoring that advice.”

Mr. Zhang said North Korea’s announcement amounted to a slap in the face for China. Even if the goal remains a negotiated solution, he said, China must first show that it is prepared to take a much tougher line before North Korea will bargain in earnest.

Susan L. Shirk, a State Department official responsible for East Asia during the Clinton administration, said she believed that the nuclear test could prove to be a turning point for China’s approach to the problem. It will, she said, force China to choose between North Korea and a United States-led international consensus rather than split the difference between the two.

She said the timing of North Korea’s announcement — the day after President Hu Jintao was visited by Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, and said they had made progress repairing troubled relations — also underscored the stakes for China’s leadership.

“If they do not act strongly they could undo what they have worked to achieve with Japan, while also seriously straining relations with the U.S.,” she said. “North Korea has really boxed them in.”

Even so, many Chinese analysts still view North Korea as a strategic asset. It may be irresponsible and unruly, but it belongs more to China than to the United States. Sacrificing an ally to help achieve America’s goals of stopping the spread of nuclear weapons may require a much stronger consensus within the Chinese elite.

“I do not believe that Chinese leaders are willing to expend major political capital on this issue,” Mr. Jin of People’s University said. “They would much prefer to follow the consensus. At the moment there is a heated debate, but no consensus of that kind.”

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Post time 2006-10-10 23:00:03 |Display all floors
I agree that the ball is mostly in China's hand.

In actuality, China should put some of its military capacity to the real test, incite a coup d'etate and invade the country, liberate it, pump in a few billion dollars and install a temporary expert puppet regime until the basic problems of getting North Korea on the feet are solved.

In such a scenario, the U.N. would probably condemn the action in its most mild wording, and behind the scenes, the leaders of the world would be pleased with the development.

The U.S. can probably not do anything, partly because they are tied up elsewhere, and partly because China doesn't want more American presence in the region. Therefore, China should begin to take the kind of global responsibility it aspires for. It has the capacity and the means.

So what happens if there is no such action? Well, North Korea won't blast any nukes; not even the clown Kim-Il Jong is that stupid. Instead, they will compete with Pakistan, reselling its stuff to forces that should at all costs be prevented from laying their hands on nuclear material. Nukes in the hand of Kim-Il Jong is a destabilizing factor in the entire Asia-Pacific region.

I am sure Beijing realizes this, too, but will they do something about it?

[ Last edited by liangzai at 2006-10-11 01:33 AM ]
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瑞典人,活着为中国娃娃而死。汉学家、工程师、摄影师、网页设计师等等。爱好:政治、历史、科技、文化等。王菲迷。自由主义者。

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Post time 2006-10-11 08:27:17 |Display all floors

North Korea just threatened a nuclear missile strike on the US....

South Korea's Yonhap news agency, in a dispatch carried by The Associated Press, quoted an unidentified North Korean official as saying, "We hope the situation will be resolved before an unfortunate incident of us firing a nuclear missile comes."

John Bolton, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, dismissed the report as a North Korean attempt to bully the United States into bilateral talks.

"This is the way North Korea typically negotiates, by threat and intimidation," Bolton said. "It's worked for them before. It's not going to work this time."

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, speaking on CNN's "The Situation Room," also called North Korea's threat a bad idea, saying that Pyongyang is aware of the consequences.

"North Korea knows that firing a nuclear missile, shall we say, would not be good for North Korean security," she said. "The North Koreans are not confused about what it would mean to launch a nuclear attack against the United States, one of our allies or someone in the neighborhood. They're not confused about that."

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Post time 2006-10-11 11:02:14 |Display all floors

Hmmmm interesting opinion!

North Korea should take this HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY to reduce its military spending. With the nuclear "POISON PILL", it should do some demobilization.

It could INCREASE BUSINESS interaction with China and build up "CAPITALIST ZONES" to develop its economy. North Koreans has suffered enough, with the almost 50 years military standoff.

THIS IS PROBABLY NORTH KOREAN intention.

North Korea is SO IMPROVERISHED that it cannot possible be a THREAT TO ANYBODY! IT IS UNABLE TO INVADE ANY NATION.

DO NOT FORCE IT TO COMMIT SUICIDE!

JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, WAKE UP!



Green Dragon

[ Last edited by greendragon at 2006-10-11 11:09 AM ]

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Post time 2006-10-11 11:11:07 |Display all floors

China should find ways to CIRCUMVENT Amerikan Regime...

....financial sabotage!

The SQUEEZE by USA cause the misery of the North Koreans. Releasing this squeeze will reduce North Korean anxiety.

I think for KOREANS, it is FIGHT TO THE DEATH.
It has always been as such for this HARDY people.

Anybody remember the Olympics in Seoul?


Green Dragon

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