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GDP per capita question? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2006-8-15 16:25:25 |Display all floors
At this time average per capita GDP is around $1,500 usd a year.

How long till the Chinese people income will be $30,000 usd a year, 2030, 2050 or when?

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Post time 2006-8-15 18:37:44 |Display all floors

per capita does not give you an accurate picture

for example one household with two member has one refridgerator
does this mean that the other household with four member should have 2 refridgerator?
or
a country of 100,000.  people has one bridge
the other country of 200,000 must have 2 bridge?

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Post time 2006-8-15 18:41:15 |Display all floors
Originally posted by reyquer at 2006-8-15 18:37
for example one household with two member has one refridgerator
does this mean that the other household with four member should have 2 refridgerator?
or
a country of 100,000.  people has one bri ...


Thank you for the information.

Would you be able to answer the following question?
How long till the Chinese people income will be $30,000 usd a year, 2030, 2050 or when?

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Post time 2006-8-15 21:39:26 |Display all floors

whiteeclipse

i really don't know the answer
but you will know you've become rich when your salary become fat
when you can afford to buy a car
when you can travel abroad
dont you think more and more chinese have attained this?

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Post time 2006-8-15 21:46:50 |Display all floors

whiteeclipse

if you are chinese
i only wish you become rich someday  in the not distant future
china has bright future so if you are chinese you are lucky

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Post time 2006-8-16 12:15:54 |Display all floors
to compare the living condition of different people using the us dollar will not give you the full picture.  for example  an american is earning usd 2,000 a month and  an indonesian  is earning usd500 a month. it may happen the american's normal spending for food shelter clothes  exceeds usd2000 so that  he is force to borrow usd1000 more to make ends meet while the indonesian  after spending for normal food shelter cloths  has usd 250 left  for saving deposit. THIS IS JUST AN EXAMPLE although i dont know what will usd2000  buy in the usa and similarly in indonesia.

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Post time 2006-8-16 13:26:12 |Display all floors

Reply #1 whiteeclipse's post

depends on the economic sophistication...
and the government of the gentleman manipulation of the commodity prices for the masses...

If the world has 85 mbd and China gets 25% of it by 2030....
it would be consuming 20 mbd.....or in 2005 dollars....US$500 billion....and China is already using some US$600 billion worth of commodity - in 2005 USA prices.....add up 200kg coal, 300kg steel (more long than flat steel) etc. etc. or some US$300 billion at 2005 Rmb to US$ exchange but probably US$600 billion at USA prices.

for US$30,000 in 2005 dollar - gnp would be US$39 trillion (assuming still 1.3 billion people).......

USA has a approximate 18 - 20x  value add to basic commodity......i have not calculated it exactly.........if China could increase economic sophistication using Malaya model.......than.......it could have 10 -12x value added by 2012......and 18 - 20x value added by 2030 latest!

GNP in 2030, if commodity consumption be US$1.2 trillion, (probably 1000 mt crude oil, 2500 mt coal, 500 mt steel etc.etc.  GNP would be US$25 trillion.......if commodity consumption could rise further.

maybe unlikely to reach US$30,000 in 2005 USA purchasing parity.....

maybe maximum US$20,000 per capita income!!!! or US$26 trillion GNP in 2005 USA dollars.....or double Amerikan economy!

if China could then increase VALUE ADDED by branding, monopoly pricing, niche technology...to extend beyond 20x value added....Hmmmm

but i worry about NATIONAL STABILITY.....


Green Dragon
Titan Friend

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