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Post time 2006-5-12 20:05:37 |Display all floors
按照以所有权为基础的
“国民”贸易统计方法,中美贸易基本平衡

Viewed from the property-based “Citizen-to-Citizen” Trade Statistic Method, the Sino-US Trade maintains a basic balance
Financial Research Institute under Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

按照中国海关的统计,2005年中国对美国的贸易顺差达到1141.7亿美元。事实上,这个巨额贸易顺差是由于现行国际贸易统计方法存在缺陷而造成的“错觉”。如果按以所有权为基础的“国民”贸易统计方法,扣除在华外资企业(包括美资企业)对美国的净出口和美资企业在中国境内向中国国民实现的“净出口”,再考虑亚洲国家通过中国向美国实现的出口,2005年中国对美国的贸易可能基本平衡,甚至还有一定的逆差。
   As indicated in the statistics from China Customs, in 2005 China enjoyed a favorable balance of trade with the U.S.A. for 114.17 million dollars. As a matter of fact, this colossal favorable balance of trade is an “illusion” ridiculously deriving from the deficiency of the prevailing international trade statistic method. However, if the property-based “National” Trade Statistic Method were adopted and other factors were taken into consideration, such as, deducting the net export to the US by foreign invested enterprises (including US invested enterprises) and the “net export” to the Chinese citizens within Mainland China by the US invested enterprises in China and the export to the US realized by Asian countries through the Chinese enterprises, it was likely that the Sino-US Trade maintained a basic balance in 2005, or there might exist a certain adverse balance of trade.


原产地规则无法反映中国对外贸易中真正的价值增值
Rules of origin fail to reflect the genuine value increment of the Sino-US Trade

美国政府统计的美中贸易逆差往往大于中国海关统计的中美贸易顺差。一般认为,价格因素和原产地规则是造成这种差异的原因。
The US trade deficit with China reflected in the US government’s statistics is, more often than not, larger than the Sino-US trade surplus as indicated in the statistics of China Customs. It is generally believed that price factors and rules of origin contribute to the disparity.

中国的出口按离岸价统计,美国的进口按到岸价统计,到岸价一般比离岸价高5%。这就使得美国统计的从中国的进口比中国统计的对美国的出口要高。同时,美国的出口按离岸价统计,中国的进口按到岸价统计。这又使得美国统计的对中国的出口比中国统计的从美国的进口要低。计价上的差异导致美国统计的美中贸易逆差要大于中国统计的中美贸易顺差。
China statistics is compiled on FOB basis while the US statistics is tabulated on CIF basis, so the FOB price is 5% higher than CIF price, which clearly demonstrates the fact that the statistic import volume from China by the US is higher than the Chinese statistic export volume to the US. The disparity lies in that the US export is calculated on FOB basis while the Chinese import is calculated on CIF basis, thus the US statistic export to China is lower than the Chinese statistic import from the US. The disparity in calculation leads to the larger US-China trade deficit on the part of the US than the Sino-US trade surplus on the part of China.
另外,美国的“原产地规则”将中国大陆经香港转口到美国的出口全部算作中国对美国的出口。事实上,这种统计方法的不合理性极大。例如,美国通过香港从中国进口的“芭比娃娃”玩具,进口价为2美元。在这2美元中,中国只获得35美分的劳务费,其余65美分用于进口原材料,1美元是运输和管理费用。按原产地统计,中国对美国的出口为2美元。如果以价值增值来计算,中国对美国的出口只有35美分。显然,原产地原则夸大了中国对美贸易顺差。
In addition, the US statistics, based on “Rules of origin”, calculates all the entrepot trade from Mainland China via Hong Kong to the US as the total export from China. In fact, this statistic method is far from rational. For example, the US imported “Barbie Doll” toys from China via Hong Kong at the price of two dollars, from which China only gained 35 cents as service charge and another 65 cents was used for import of raw materials and one dollar for transport and management. So calculated in terms of rules of origin, the export to the US from China is two dollars, but if calculated in terms of value increment, the export from China to the US is only 35 cents. It is evident that rules of origin exaggerate China’s trade surplus with the US.

[ Last edited by andrewyan at 2006-5-12 08:42 PM ]

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Post time 2006-5-13 09:07:38 |Display all floors
按照以所有权为基础的“国民”贸易统计方法,中美贸易基本平衡
Viewed from the property-based “Citizen-to-Citizen” Trade Statistic Method, the Sino-US Trade maintains a basic balance

>> 按照 according to?
>> 基本(上维持)平衡 maintains an essential balance; is essentially balanced?


按照中国海关的统计,2005年中国对美国的贸易顺差达到1141.7亿美元。
As indicated in the statistics from China Customs, in 2005 China enjoyed a favorable balance of trade with the U.S.A. for 114.17 million dollars.

>> 1141.7亿 114.17 billion?
>> 贸易顺差 trade surplus?
>> China Customs' statistics shows that China had a trade suplus as high as $114.17 billion with the United States in 2005.


事实上,这个巨额贸易顺差是由于现行国际贸易统计方法存在缺陷而造成的“错觉”。
As a matter of fact, this colossal favorable balance of trade is an “illusion” ridiculously deriving from the deficiency of the prevailing international trade statistic method.

>> “错觉” "illusion" or misconception?
>> 统计(学)方法 statistical methods?
>> 缺陷 deficiencies?
>> (所)造成的“错觉” a misconception caused by (eg, misuse of)?
>> This colossal trade surplus is actually a misconception due to deficiencies in the statistical methods currently used for international trade.


如果按以所有权为基础的“国民”贸易统计方法,扣除在华外资企业(包括美资企业)对美国的净出口和美资企业在中国境内向中国国民实现的“净出口”,再考虑亚洲国家通过中国向美国实现的出口,2005年中国对美国的贸易可能基本平衡,甚至还有一定的逆差。
However, if the property-based “National” Trade Statistic Method were adopted and other factors were taken into consideration, such as, deducting the net export to the US by foreign invested enterprises (including US invested enterprises) and the “net export” to the Chinese citizens within Mainland China by the US invested enterprises in China and the export to the US realized by Asian countries through the Chinese enterprises, it was likely that the Sino-US Trade maintained a basic balance in 2005, or there might exist a certain adverse balance of trade.

>> try to shorten up a little bit:
>> The 2005 Sino-US trade however will be more balanced than it is conceived, and even can have a possible deficit, when calculated with the property-based "National" trade statistical method that requires a number of deductions, such as the net export to the US from enterprises in China that are foreign invested including the US, the "net export" to chinese citizens from local US invested enterprises, and the export to the US that is originated from other Asian countries via China. [edited]

[ Last edited by nyleda at 2006-5-13 04:14 PM ]

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Post time 2006-5-13 09:44:59 |Display all floors
property-based ---> ownership-based
citizen-to-citizen ---> national

[ Last edited by laoxianggg at 2006-5-13 10:02 AM ]

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Post time 2006-5-13 15:02:43 |Display all floors
谢谢nyleda和laoxiaoge 两位老师的指点

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