Author: matt605

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Post time 2006-2-24 20:35:17 |Display all floors
Originally posted by matt605 at 2006-2-24 21:35
Yesterday Iraq had its first major episode in its civil war which has been brewing since the fall of Baghdad in 2003....


Yeah while it is tragic that the Shia mosque was attacked, it is quite strange that in response to some supposedly Sunni insurgents blowing up a Shia mosque, the protests target George Bush!

Now while I think GWB is a dickhead, and his administration deserves every bit of criticism it gets, the Mosque attack would seem to be the work of terrorists from that region.

JB
"他不是救星, 他是一个非常淘气男孩" - Monty Python

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Post time 2006-2-24 23:10:24 |Display all floors

Why the the situation is getting worse?

Because the POTENTIALS of conflict have not been radically removed.

Because the Europeans and Americans have so deeply imbedded in their minds the holy and untouchable subject of borders , that they can't even come up with a workable plan. Long time ago the same peoples were moving the borders at the click of fingers, now it became a tab bo oo. Same in Iraq , same earlier in Yugoslavia. If the fundaments of the plan would recognize what is obvious and the plan to divide a country would be made, and made fair, to give all groups a decent starting ground for the future - the sound basement will cary a safe house ( houses).
If Iraq eould be divided and new 3 countries established and the teritories with fair majorities of Kurds, Sunni and Shiite - a lot of grenze-orthodox around the world would be screeming in their panties for a while, but after a time everybody would get used to this. And there would be much less POTENTIAL for the internal wars and riots.

In the early stage of decomposition of ex- Yugoslavia, that is after the Croatian-Serb war, in the beginning of the biggest mass - war in Bosnia - there was obvious that Bosnia should be divided between Croatia and Serbia, with a certain teritory left ( As Bosnia) for all those , who have war up to thgeir noses. Such smaller country - Bosnia- would then be given an international guarentee and military help ( stationed UN troops) for their defence.

As the POTENTIAL of conflict would be nearly zeroed - the conflict would have been extinguished in the source.
It matters not so much , how big a teritory is ( in Europe), but how well the country functions and how low the POTENTIAL of inner conflicts exist.
Slovenia is a small, nice vountry of happy people.

Iraq could not be divided because:
it is unthinkable
It is against this...well...what was it....
Because the card of UN
because some other cards
Because Syria, Turkey and Iran don't like to have Kurdish country around.
Because of history fo Iraq  ( this actually is the funniest BS I read by some ,since during the long history of the TIgris and Eufrat Valley many different countries of different shapes and sizes existed )

For whetever reasons, which are always surprisingly being put above the life interest of the living people on the subject areas the outsiders take for granted that the borders can't change. As if the borders were once given by God and moved together with continents since Pangea.
Andy Dob

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Post time 2006-2-25 02:20:02 |Display all floors
You must resist the urge to find peaceful solutions.

The USA does not want peace in the Middle East.  If it did, then it would have it by now.  America wants war.  The more you try for peace, the more you will fail.  So give war a chance.

America wants to conquer and occupy every oil field in the Middle East.  Know that fact as you begin.  So anything that disrupts peace and hinders a peaceful solution will succeed even as the public rhetoric of America's government decries violence.

The United States would already be in Tehran today, but the country isn't fully mobilized for war yet.  Many people now believe that Iraq could have been contained without an invasion.  So it will take many more days of bloodshed and violence on America's television screens in order help the public realize that there is no solution short of total war, with a draft and a huge invasion force.  Don't stand in the way of the violence.  It's not only dangerous, it's futile.

True peace in the MIddle East will arrive when America owns all the oil.  It is only then that Muslims will find the peace for which that have so long cried.  But quick and simple solutions will only have them demanding justice when all we can offer is an end to the violence.

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Post time 2006-2-25 08:50:08 |Display all floors
Originally posted by doberman at 2006-2-24 23:10
Because the POTENTIALS of conflict have not been radically removed.
If Iraq eould be divided and new 3 countries established and the teritories with fair majorities of Kurds, Sunni and Shiite - a lot of grenze-orthodox around the world would be screeming in their panties for a while, but after a time everybody would get used to this. And there would be much less POTENTIAL for the internal wars and riots.


A division of the country may seem the best choice but thre are problems with this method too. Oil fields in Iraq are in the north and the south. If the country 's divided along ethnic lines, then all the oil fields will be in Kurdish and Shiite territory, leaving the Sunnis with nothing. They won't stand for it.

Of course, having an independent Kurdistan will be catastrophy by itself, since that will be the worst-case scenario for the Turks. The Turks have brutalized the Kurds for decades for the purpose of putting them in their place so that they'll never dare to clamor for their own country. An independent kurdistan is absolutely the last thing the Turks will tolerate. If Kurds declare independence, Turkey will intervene. That of course, will put the U.S. in a very uncomfortable position of having to confront Turkey -- our NATO ally.

An indepenent Shiite nation, of course, isn't something that the U.S. is willing to trust, since Iraqi Shiites are connected to the Iranians religiously and politically. Even now, key political and religious Shiite figures and prominent Shiite political parties have ties with Iran. No one can guarantee that the new Shiite state won't pull a "Lone Star" and join up with Iran as soon as it becomes independent. Even if it stays independent, Iran will still be able to exercise considerable influence.
"扶摇万重兮,
放我麒麟冲荡。
清清渭水兮,
舞我手中霓裳。 "

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Post time 2006-2-25 09:07:20 |Display all floors

Reply #11 observer3's post

I agree with all , what you wrote, Observer.

This is the reason why there cannot be a stabile situation over there. Most of people are not bold enough to cut the gordian knot , without looking onto "imponderabilias".
Many of these thing-that-cannot-be-done are just the thoughts' barrieres which we actually imposed on ourselves , with a big portion of help from the policy/opinion makers.

Who told that Turkey has any right to say Y/N for a right of Kurdish nation to have a country on the teritories they have been living on long time before Turks marauders visited Anatolia? Answer - as you rightly said - because they are in Nato. This is just a political limit , which in political manner can be overcome. It depends only on the will of nations.

Land division. If done according to current situation - yes, it could not be fair to leave one of the subjects without oil fields. That's why I put this caveat - FAIR. This would most probably include migrations of people. Another "unthinkability" as far as "the civilized" world takes it. If , because of unresolved situation we witness milions of people thereafter moving themselves , escaping from the nightmares of war and terrorism, when we see growing camps of refugees - what can we do? Nothing but pumping aid into the hopeless situation. These resources would much better be used for maintaining and helping inthe initial stage of building something on WELL THOUGHTS OUT FUNDAMENTS. To back up something with visible future, with clear view because THE POTENTIALS OF TENSIONS HAVE BEEN REMOVED.

Moving people if agreed under UN auspitions can be organized, controlled, done to all who VOLUNTEER without war like hussle. There would be costly reparations and compensations , mostly covered by an international aid agancies and countries - yes - but all this is far less costly than upholding a rotten situation for years and more years.

[ Last edited by doberman at 2006-2-25 09:09 AM ]
Andy Dob

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