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When will China's economy be the No.1 in the world? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2005-12-12 18:37:42 |Display all floors
Do you predict when China's economy will surpass Japan or USA? I am looking forward to that day......

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Post time 2005-12-13 12:40:38 |Display all floors

re:When will China's economy be the No.1 in the world?

In my opinion,your question is so one-sided!We all know that the speed of the globalization is becoming more and more fast.And it is certain that we,all nations in this world,will be united as one.As a member and the biggest developing nation of the world,we are resiponsible for the development and stability of the whole world.We should contribute to the course of the globalization.
Which country will be the No.1 in economy or minitory is nonsense for common people,so we should not discuss this dull question,it waste our time and enrgy.What we sgould do now is to try our best to do our own jobs,only in this way can we improve our living condition and the international standing of China!
Do you think so?

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Post time 2005-12-13 18:31:27 |Display all floors
To: joezhang
How can you say this question is nonsense for common people. you only can represent yourself,right?
I do agree China should contribute to the world's globalization & properity, but as a chinese, I also care when we, our country, can be the No. 1 in the world in order to avoid such tragedies as Nanjing $$ etc. happened again in our country.
Sure, we should try our best to do our job well, but to do so is not only for our living condition, also for one day our country will be the leading role again, which gives me much pride.

If you are not interested in discussing on this  question, please do not waste your previous time and energy and leave here simply, how can you define it as a dull question.

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2005-12-13 21:07:17 |Display all floors

2039

You had asked when China will surpass the US/Japan.

The answer given by one investment bank was 2039, the year when China's GDP will be larger than that of the US.  As i write this, China's foreign reserves already surpass Japan's, making the former the world's biggest foreign reserves holder.  Someone else commented that one time, during the Qing era, China had something like 35% of the world's GNP (altho' i don't know how that could have been ascertained).

Anyway, what i have observed as challenges in the coming years for China are the following:

1. how to lift up the 166 or more tier-2 cities to push forward at the same or even higher rates of growth than those enjoyed for the past two decades by Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen?  Sure, pockets of these cities are doing well, but too much inter-city competition to attract foreign investment has caused many of them to build and offer too generously.  The government is aware of this and is working with the cities' officials to develop but one wonders if there can somehow be a more holistic approach to inter-city coordination based on a national masterplan that streamlines and creates niches for development, while developing an umbrella programme of inbound services (coordinated tourism, for example) that will create more jobs, lift up the retailers and open more markets.

2. how to provide for the elderly, given the demographics of China will bend more and more towards an elderly majority? The social welfare challenge will have to be taken care of, perhaps in the light of better investment-borne insurance products under the aegis of the government.  These products should cover both healthcare and savings for the elderly, so freeing their offspring to find more earnings to catch up on solving their own problems.

3. how to find the right response to the US-Japan fork that will try to destabilise and contain China geopolitically before the eyes of her many friendly nations? Somehow one is not too confident that that axis will not try to use their financial muscle to pull the plugs and change the rules of international finance to weaken China's growth, and try to come out looking rosy by using their influence over the global media;  furthermore, while China is also developing her own nuclear fuel capability to generate more electric power, the US is currently able to influence global oil pricing.

4. how to develop and acquire the right types of technology and modernization methods so that China's enterprises will forge and prosper without having to re-learn all the mistakes made by the west, which may be expected to continue to disbar China from critical know-hows in order to weaken China's manufacturing capabilities in the affected notion that it is a zero-sum game, when they secretly know that more and more of them are benefiting from China's opening up.

Having said that, i recall the old saying: 'a nail that stands out gets hammered.'  With this in mind, it may be better to progress quietly and continue to create win-win opportunities for everyone.  What with so much unrest and discord in the world these past years, there is a psychological schism in the world today and many people all over the world hunger again for peace, progress and prosperity.  China can create a new global mission statement for the whole world, even when she continues to find her way to her own destiny.

I can write somemore but the damn mosquito's finishing me....


[ Last edited by markwu at 2005-12-13 09:11 PM ]

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2005-12-14 12:56:48 |Display all floors

Mr. Mark Wu is more on the "mark".....

...compare to the "stupid post" by Mr. HuarenMalay in another thread...

...too much simplification in Mr. Groc.....

good post hard to do....too presumptious....our moderators.

ha ha ha

What to do?

fm
cheeky Game Master
Lord of the code

Council of Malaya

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2005-12-14 14:53:40 |Display all floors

xiaowuer

avatar changed; remarks should too?

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2005-12-14 16:31:54 |Display all floors

Reply #6 xiaowuer's post:

You just haven't written enough!

The avatar selection does suck...and suck BIG TIME...(but then again, when children are the ones it seems that have chosen the japanese-like cartoons from which you can "choose" what can you expect) but once you get to a higher post count (not certain but it seems to be 500 posts) then you can use a picture like markwu and others are doing.

So (and I am only assuming you will of course), just post some more and you will soon be in the heady ranks of those who can choose a picture to use instead of an anime-style cartoon. Unless of course, you see yourself as an anime-style cartoon ;-)

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