Author: flyingroc

When will China's economy be the No.1 in the world? [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 1

Post time 2006-3-6 22:30:38 |Display all floors
I would like to talk over this dispute between flyingroc and joezhang. In my opinion,our love is limited and should be devoted to our motherland. In mordern international environment, there exists long-standing and deep-seated conflicts between China and such competitors as USA and Japan. It's difficult for us to do something bring balance benfit to both sides and thus we must choose to respect which interest.
Clearly, I'm the supporter of flyingroc and wish PRC become more prosperity.

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Rank: 4

Post time 2006-3-10 02:35:25 |Display all floors
two issues really democracy and freedom until then watch syriana and you will see the west perspective on oil.
Oil will rule the world, economically if china growth is less than 8% starvation wil occur.
If the USA go to war with Iraq this is likely.

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Post time 2006-3-11 19:15:12 |Display all floors
If you look at the development of China in the last 20 years, it’s growth performance has been the longest ever seen in modern history. If you think this growth will stay on the same footage as in the past China will be the largest or one of the largest economies on this planet.

However, you should take in account the fact that in China everything is about the big numbers. If they reach the status of being the largest economy on earth, then they still have a large population to share it with.

Summing up the threats to China’s growth, you can define them in a category that China can influence or not. If you look at the threat coming from the outside it’s protectionism by the US and Europe. By protecting their countries of products from Asia, the let companies stay in Europe and the US, which normally will go to Asia.
Next to this the USA is very imbalanced today: it’s has a large current account deficit,  are not saving to finance that (government and the people). It’s the question how long this will be bearable. If it’s more difficult to finance the deficit then US interest rates will rise and pushing up interest rates throughout the world and de dollar will be depreciated.  Depreciation of the dollar will inflect serious loss to the China (central) bank, which holds a lot of dollar dominated assets.

If you look at China it’s self then there are a large variety of (coming or current) problems which has to be solved. Let me give you the important one’s:
1.        Ageing population

2.        Education
China has done a tremenious job in giving more education to it’s people, but the average quality decreased and the way of education has to become more practical. By changing the education system, productivity on the long term will increase and thereby wages of the Chinese graduates.

3.        Political
The government should be hold accountable for what they do in a transparent way and should encourage developments and not restricting new and more productive development by protecting the old. The European Union uses this as an excuse to take protective measures. Although proper evidence has not been delivered, China couldn’t give insight that it isn’t true.
Next to this transparency will decrease (estimated) risks, so that investments can increase too.

4.        Financially
Now China has a surplus on this capital and current account. This lead to a increase in the money supply, which lead to an increase in credit expansion, inflation and increase in foreign exchange reserves. Currently there is no good system in China to channel the money to good investments. Effects of non performing loans are an example of that, especially if you look to the sectors they loaned it too. As mentioned earlier in this form, some sectors are in capacity oversupply. To increase effectiveness of credit banks should have a well developed risk management systems aided by clear and useful laws in an effect of default. Next to this information on creditors should be available and reliable. An change in accounting standards will be welcomed too.

So if you ask me if China will become the biggest economy of the world the answer can be Yes, if China is able to cope with the problems described above.

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Rank: 4

Post time 2006-3-17 12:22:08 |Display all floors
Why are Chinese people so obsesssed with being No.1? I have been to many other developing countries in the world and I don't see them claiming they will be "No.1" soon. It smacks of both arrogance and insecurity. It is arrogant because Chinese feel that they are really superior to the rest of the world, and that the current poor state of the country is only due to external factors, not internal - i.e. you blame everybody except yourselves. It smacks of insecurity because you judge your value only in relation to the status of others, and their ranking with you. This is a sign of poor self-esteeem at a deep level. The true measure of your worth as a nation and people has nothing to do with how you measure up against anybody else.

The most important consideration is how you would define or measure "No.1". Your govt. has shoved the idea of shallow economic indicators  like gross GDP and % growth per annum as being the criteria for determining the progress of society. These statistics are very misleading. Without a deeper appreciation for what they mean, the label "No. 1" is pointless. What is the point of having the highest gross GDP when much of it is coming from foreign investment and is leaving the country; and the Chinese part is being hoarded in illegal banks and off-shore accounts of a few rich Chinese people? - while the rest of the nation is made up of factory workers, sanlunche drivers, prostitutes and beggers?

What about talking about China as progressing in terms of freedom of information, freedom of expression, human rights, social welfare, access to education, health care, deomocracy, human politeness, personal hygiene, spiritual and emotional maturity etc? In all these aras China is so far behind the word's developed nations that it may never catch up.

You will never catch up if all you care about is a statistic called gross GDP. You have nearly a quarter of the world's people. So having the highest gross GPD is hardly cause for celebration. If you look at average wages, you are 45 times poorer than the United States, and 27 times poorer than Austrlia. But of course you don't want to talk about THIS statistic because it tells you something you don't want to acknowlwdge: that China is still, on average a VERY poor nation; made up of a few rich people and a billion people who are poor by any measure.

My point: Start talking quality of life and being "rich" in a more broad sense of the term. Your obsession with gross GDP and being "No. 1" will only take you further away from a "prosperous" China in any worthwhile sesne of the word.

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Rank: 4

Post time 2006-3-18 15:20:41 |Display all floors

Dream

Of course, we want to be the strongest and richest country in the world.Then,we can take pride in our powerful country.However,you have missed the point that people resided in the country get richer and richer,especially in mentality,then we can say we are the best. Pure GDP reflects only one side of our country. In one word,make many more people share the fruit  brought by reforming and development.

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Rank: 4

Post time 2006-3-24 14:43:00 |Display all floors

NEVER!

Our current level of technology and the world population make nationalism obsolete but the human race isn't ready for that and most like the the political leaders aren't interested.  So the next 30 years or so are going to be a big mess and history will not be a guide because the technology is to different from previous eras.  

The GDP nonsense is meaningless because the brainless economists don't talk about planned obsolescence or the depreciation of all of the garbage consumers buy.  I won't care about the low price of a new car from China if I can still get a used car for less.  Paying cash for used means I don't pay interest and I don't buy collision insurance.  (As distinguished from liability insurance.)


psikeyhackr
Kill an economist for KKK
Karl, Kenneth & Keynes

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Rank: 1

Post time 2006-3-25 16:09:41 |Display all floors
I think that the Chinese do a great job to proclaim of being the no 1 in the world. They give away their vision and target of development. Everything the people or officials do have to be in line with archieving the no 1 position. America and Europe are lacking such an vision and because of that they are on de defence and look to much to threats in stead of opportunnities.

By the way, this number one thing didn't come from China, they are to modest for that, it came from the world bank. The world bank was very enthausiastic about China's development: it let world poverty decrease by 10%!! No country did that!

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