Author: flyingroc

When will China's economy be the No.1 in the world? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2006-6-2 16:39:01 |Display all floors

Another Survey?

China to rival US as world power by 2020


The United States will lose its position as the world's undisputed leading power over the next decade and a half, with China emerging as the No 1 power, according to a new survey from Germany's Bertelsmann Foundation.

In the survey, based on interviews of 10,250 people worldwide, 57 percent of respondents said they believed the United States would be a world power in the year 2020, compared to 55 percent who saw China in that role.

That compared to 81 percent who currently see the United States as a world power, and 45 percent who believe China has already attained that status.

The survey, entitled "World Powers in the 21st Century" was conducted by the Gallup and TNS Emnid polling institutes in nine countries -- Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- between October and December 2005. Between 1,000 and 1,500 interviews were conducted in each of the countries.

The survey showed the Chinese themselves are confident they will gain influence on the global stage. A full 71 percent of Chinese respondents said their country would be a world power by 2020, compared to 44 percent who see China in that role today.

By comparison, 54 percent of Americans see China as a global power in 2020, up slightly from the 51 percent who already view China that way.

The survey showed that India would also rise as a world power, with 24 percent of respondents assigning it that status in 2020 against only 12 percent today.

Besides the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Japan were expected to decline in status, shedding 11, 6, 5 and 5 percentage points, respectively in the next 15 years.

Of the respondents within those five declining countries, only those in France went against the international trend and said their country would gain in status from now until 2020 -- with 33 percent of French seeing their country as a world power today and 35 percent in 2020.

The survey showed that people in the nine countries considered "economic power and potential for growth" as the most important quality for a world power.

There was disagreement on the importance of "military power" as a factor, with a third of respondents in China and the United States listing it as crucial, but only 7 percent in Germany and 16 percent in Japan viewing it as important.

There were also differences in how the countries viewed the main challenges confronting the world. In seven of the nine countries, over 50 percent of respondents listed international terrorism as the chief challenge.

But in China and Brazil less than a third of those surveyed put terrorism in that category. The Chinese listed environmental destruction and scarcity of natural resources as top threats.

In only China and Germany was a majority of the population of the opinion that peace and stability in the world could best be achieved under the leadership of the United Nations.

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Post time 2006-6-3 11:13:48 |Display all floors

Reply #91 garyh1959's post

The Southwestern State of USA might breakoff from the Union....

You never know...

Afteall, California, Texas, New Mexico was wrested from Mexico with ILLEGAL METHODS, UNEQUAL TREATIES......
Already, Hispanic population is becoming the MAJOR POPULATION in those region....

You never know....

Green Dragon

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Post time 2006-6-5 08:20:05 |Display all floors
Does China Economy have much to do with the average Chinese people? I mean half of the GDP is wasted and traded for luxuary goods, expensive oil, and etc...

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Post time 2006-6-5 17:47:39 |Display all floors

Reply #94 redblue's post

Most economies have 50% of its GNP used by the top 20% of its population.......
No escape.....

China has been quite successful in making basic products of manufacture and foodstuff affordable to most o f its citizens...
ie. grain, meat, phone, fridge, tv, dvd, fan, some airconditioners, public transport and increasingly motorcycles and cars......

there is no avoidance.......
this has always been the way.......

Green Dragon

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Post time 2006-6-12 10:17:18 |Display all floors

never happen

Will never happen because China's economy is now dependent on investment ofthose countries and to become bigger needs to make its own industries. It doesnot have sophisctiated company to do that. when? we been waiting 5000 years.

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Post time 2006-6-12 12:59:42 |Display all floors
What an ignorant comment!  In China's history, it has already been a world economic power, so there is precedent that it can return to the top.  It is already the lender to the massively debt-ridden US.  As US spend borrowed money to try and sustain this image of economic prosperity, central bankers around the world are already moving monies into other assets, currencies, and other forms of reserves.  Looks like this cringly is living in the past, because he is either too stupid to understand the future, or know the future doesn't look great for US.

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Post time 2006-6-13 11:28:00 |Display all floors
Don't be so serious about which nation will be NO 1 in the world. The most important thing, i think, we can live with happiness, health, wealth, not a reclame. After all, we are civilian, not politics, what we can do about country policy. Just like reform and opening, China's economy's surging in the last decades, but we've already paid a lot, our natural resources is being used out.

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