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Here is the state of play one week before Brexit kicks in.|
If PM May does not secure a compromise from the different Tory factions by March 29th midnight, she is facing a monumental political defeat. The UK will crash out of the EU without any agreements, not even on whether and how the UK can settle its outstanding account with the EU. Meanwhile, the loquacious Presdient Trump is cheering on Brexit which could lead to the dissolution of the United Kingdom.
The Tory factions are splintered into 2 major blocks, for and against Brexit. Mssrs Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, David Davis et al are beating the drum of Brexit for their own political gains.
Mr Corbyn, leader of Labour, is a hardline socialist and a fence-sitter watching the Tories tear itself apart while London burns. He will not commit himself and Labour one way or another.
Mr John Bercow, formerly a Tory, now speaker of House of Commons, has told May she cannot ask Perliament to vote on her Brexit plan for a 3rd time without concrete and substantive changes to her original proposal.
The EU is facing an election in May and does not want an equivocal, euro-sceptic UK participating in the election. The overall sentiment is, the EU would rather see the UK leave.
The Republic of Ireland (the Catholic south) will stay as a member of the EU and does not want a hard border with Northern Ireland. The Protestant Northern Ireland is a part of the UK and will crash out of Brexit with the UK if May fails. This could lead to a "hard border" between the 2 Irelands, which neither Ulster nor Dublin want.
The socalled "backstop" is a proposal to collect duties, tax etc for the EU under a comprehensive trade agreement which simply mirrors the EU regulations. In which case, why bother having a Brexit? For the UK this could be advantageous b/c it can trade with the EU as if it is still a full fledged member, but avoid all commitments that the UK does not want and the UK can make any trade agreement with any nations ( the US comes to mind immeidately ) without the consent of Brussel. In which can, why not just dissolve the EU for the benefit of the UK and the US?
So here we are, one more week to Brexit.
And how does this affect China?
I am sure you know.